US Expecting Bounce in Jobs for June Employment Outlook

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    The US Labor Department June jobs report Friday…



    Stocks sold off 25 S&P handles on the strong report because means Fed wont cut rates – if they want that narrative earnings disappointed but one suspects they will be talking jobs up once the flush is complete.

    Helmholtz Watson

    Fed nominee Judy Shelton on CNBC

    Says she doesn’t want FOMC to pull rug out from under market
    Says Jobs report shows the President’s agenda is working

    President Donald Trump tweeted Tuesday his intention to nominate Judy Shelton and St. Louis Fed economist Christopher Waller as Federal Reserve Board governors.

    Judy Shelton serves as the U.S. executive director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote as recently as last year in support of pegging the dollar to gold prices. Questioned in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal opinion page whether the U.S. central bank should lower rates Shelton said, “The answer is yes.”


    US Conference Board Employment trends index Down To 109.51 in June From 111.22 May

    “The Employment Trends Index experienced a big drop in June, but this was primarily driven by a large negative contribution from one component – an increase in the percentage of respondents who say they find ‘Jobs Hard to Get’ in The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board.

    “This marks the fourth largest monthly negative contribution in the series history, which is potentially the result of noise rather than a more significant signal. We therefore interpret this month’s large decline in the ETI with caution. With the US economy slowing a little, but still projected to remain above its 2 percent long-term trend, we expect job growth to remain strong enough to continue tightening the labor market and draw more people off the sidelines.”

    Positive contributors included:

    number of employees hired by the temporary help industry
    ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers
    job openings
    industrial production
    real manufacturing and trade sales


    Powell Testimony on Jobs

    Fed has no evidence for calling this a hot labor market
    Current levels of wage growth are not high enough to put upward pressure on inflation
    Hot labor market is not a current issue


    [color=green][size=5][b]US initial jobless claims for July 20, 2019 week 206K vs 218K estimate Prior 216K.
    4-week moving average was 213k, a decrease of 5.75k from previous week’s unrevised 218.75k
    Continuing claims 1676K vs 1688K estimate. Prior month revised to 1689K
    .4-week moving average was 1,697,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
    The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 1,701,000 to 1,701,750.

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