US Employment and Earnings Outlook Tempered By Macroeconomic Worries

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    The US Labor Department September jobs report on…



    Westpac Jobs Preview:

    headline +160k
    unemployment rate 3.7%
    hourly earnings 3.3% y/y
    Nonfarm payrolls employment has undergone a material deceleration in 2019
    we anticipate this downtrend will persist
    month-to-month volatility will see a stronger outcome in Sep
    unemployment rate is unlikely to move materially higher, thanks to the FOMC’s rate cuts and low term interest rates


    UBS Jobs Preview:

    Expecting a 139kchange vs 145k, albeit these expectations still reflect an improvement from the previous month’s print.pace is consistent with underlying weakness in the US economy

    While the effects from the tariffs imposed in 2018 continue to fade, we see the effects of 2019 tariffs applied in May, June, and September as increasingly weighing on US activity


    CBA Jobs Preview

    Low level of US jobless claims and the pick-up in temporary employment suggest another solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls of 140,000 unemployment 3.7%

    Very low inflation expectations suggest average earnings decelerated slightly to 3.1% y/y


    Goldman Sachs Jobs preview

    NFP +150k
    Unemployment rate 3.6%
    Average hourly earnings 0.2% m/m and 3.2% y/y

    “Employment surveys weakened further on net, their levels are still consistent with above-potential job growth”


    Nomura Jobs Forecasts

    NFP 125k increase, likely driven by another weak month of service employment growth
    Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m & 3.2% y/y, boosted in part by a positive calendar bias
    Unemployment rate to 3.6% as the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate pulls back somewhat after a surge in August


    HP Major Restructuring to Slash 7,000 to 9,000 jobs over three years

    HP Inc. on Thursday announced a major restructuring that will eliminate 7,000 to 9,000 jobs over the next three years as part of a series of moves to transform the computing giant into a software and services powerhouse.

    “This is one of the toughest decisions we had to make, but it is absolutely necessary for HP’s future,” incoming Chief Executive Enrique Lores told MarketWatch in a conference call with a handful of industry analysts.

    Lores and Chief Financial Officer Steve Fieler laid out a financial road map for the company’s fiscal year 2020 several hours before HP’s analyst day was to start.

    A job reduction of up to 13% to 16% of HP’s 55,000 employees worldwide to save $1 billion in operation costs. Those savings, in turn, would be invested in software and services as HP HPQ attempts to “reinvent business,” Lores said.

    HP Inc
    After hours 17.95 −0.45 (-2.45%)


    We Co – WeWork parent company to cut up to 25% of workers: report

    WeWork parent company plans to lay off thousands of workers following the recent implosion of the work-space company’s initial public offering plans, according to reports late Thursday.

    The company is planning to lay off 10% to 25% of its employees to reduce costs, according to Business Insider on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the situation.

    Earlier reports had pegged the number of layoffs at about 5,000 employees, but 10% to 25% would be between 1,000 to 3,000 employees, Business Insider said. On Monday, We Co. said it would withdraw its IPO plans after its co-founder and chief executive resigned last week.


    US August JOLTS job openings 7051K v 7191K exp Prior was 7174K
    Lowest since March 2018

    JOLTS job openings 7051K vs 7191K exp Prior 7217K (revised to 7174K)
    Quits 3526K v 3668K prior

    It was the lowest level since March 2018, mainly driven by a decline in the Midwest region (-183,000). J

    ob openings decreased in nondurable goods manufacturing (-49,000) and in information (-47,000). Meanwhile, hiring dropped by 199,000 to 5.779 million in August, due to decreases in the private sector.

    Job Offers in the United States averaged 4452.07 Thousand from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7626 Thousand in November of 2018 and a record low of 2264 Thousand in July of 2009.


    Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart via Atlanta Fed
    Updated on October 9, 2019

    The Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart is designed to allow monitoring of broad labor market developments by comparing current conditions to those in up to two earlier time periods that the user selects. Distributions of the labor market variables are constructed over a time period that the user also selects, with the inner and outer rings representing the minimum and maximum values of each of the variables.

    The three dashed gray rings in the chart represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the distributions, respectively. Indicators of labor market status are broken up into five groups: Employer Behavior, Confidence/Perceptions, Utilization, Wages, and Flows.

    Data in the chart are updated twice monthly: once for the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, and again for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) update.


    Atlanta Fed GDP tracker GDPNow for third-quarter GDP 1.7% v 1.8% from last report.

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on October 9, down from 1.8 percent on October 4. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.12 percentage points to 0.01 percentage points.


    US initial jobless claims 212K vs 215K estimate Last week 218K

    Four-week average 215K versus 215.75K revised
    Continuing claims 1682K versus 1678K estimate. The prior week 1683K revised from 1679K p
    Four-week average 1677.25K versus 1670.75k

    The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 12 were in California (+6,856), New York (+3,147), Oklahoma (+982), Pennsylvania (+596), and Michigan (+464),

    The largest decreases were in Illinois (-922), North Carolina (-544), Arkansas (-385), Ohio (-255), and South Carolina (-202)

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