US Building Permits and Housing Starts Highest Levels in 12 Years

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    US building permits for August came in at…


    Helmholtz Watson

    Beazer Homes July-August Sales Update

    Beazer Homes USA (NYSE:BZH) sales for tfirst two months of fiscal Q4 rose 12.5% Y/Y.

    Sales per community per month rose to 3.0 from 2.7 in year-ago period.

    Beazer sees fiscal Q4 backlog conversion ratio to be similar to Q4 2018.

    The company will report full Q4 2019 results in November.

    Previously: Beazer Homes EPS beats by $0.21, beats on revenue (Aug. 1)

    Beazer Homes USA Inc.
    After Hours $14.61 0.46 +3.25%


    [color=green][size=5][b]US August existing home sales 5.49m vs 5.38m expected
    Prior 5.42m (unrevised)[/b][/size][/color]

    Buyers are benefiting from lower mortgage rates, low unemployment, rising wages and slower house price inflation.

    Sales +1.3% vs -0.7% exp (biggest jump in two years)
    Prices +4.7% vs Aug 2018
    Median prices $278,200 compared to $280,400 in July and $265,600 a year earlier
    The months’ worth of supply fell to 4.1 from 4.3
    Sales of single family homes advanced 1.2 percent to 4.90 million, following a 2.8 percent jump in the previous month
    Sales of condos increased 1.7 percent to 0.59 million, after being unchanged in July.

    Year-on-year, existing home sales rose 2.6 percent, the second consecutive month of annual gains.

    Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3965.47 Thousand from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970.


    [b]US CoreLogic Case-Shiller July 20-city house price index 2.0% y/y v +2.1% expected
    Prior +2.13% y/y (revised to +2.16%)[/b]


    [b]FHFA US July house price index +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
    Prices up 5.0% y/y


    US MBA mortgage applications w.e.20 September -10.1% v -0.1% prior

    Latest data from Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 20 September, 2019

    Purchase index 261.4 vs 269.7 prior
    Market index 512.2 vs 569.5 prior
    Refinancing index 1928.0 vs 2274.1 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 4.02% vs 4.01% prior


    US August FHFA house price index +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected

    Prior +0.4%
    Prices up 4.6% y/y vs +5.0% prior

    The average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States rose 0.2 percent from a month earlier in August 2019, after a 0.4 percent gain in the previous month.

    Among Census divisions, increases were recorded in New England (0.9 percent); East North Central (0.5 percent); West North Central (0.5 percent); West South Central (0.4 percent); and in the Middle Atlantic (0.2 percent).

    In contrast, declines were seen in the East South Central (-0.8 percent); South Atlantic (-0.1 percent); and Mountain (-0.1 percent); while prices in the Pacific were unchanged.


    [size=5][b]US September new home sales 701K v 702K expected
    Prior 713K (revised to 706K)[/b][/size]

    Sales -0.7% vs -1.6% exp
    Median sale price $299,400 v $328,300 a year ago
    5.5 months supply vs 5.5 months prior

    Helmholtz Watson

    [b]US August CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 city house price index +2.03% y/y v +2.1% expected
    prior +2.0% y/y[/b]

    -0.16% m/m vs -0.10% exp

    National house price index 3.17% y/y vs 3.14% prior


    US pending home sales for September 1.5% versus 0.8% estimate

    Sales Rise the Most in 4 Years

    Pending home sales 108.7 versus 107.1 last month (revised from 107.3)

    Sales up 1.5% vs 0.8% estimate
    Pending home sales up 6.3% year on year. That is the largest increase since 2015

    Northeast, -0.4% versus 1.4% gain in August
    Midwest +3.1% versus 0.2% gain in August
    South 2.6% versus 1.3% gain in August
    West -1.3% versus 3.1% gain in August


    US building permits for October continue to surge 1461K v 1385K estimate Highest since May 2007
    Prior month 1391K unchanged from prior revision

    Building permits rose 5.0% versus – -0.4% estimate and -2.4% last month
    Permits for single-family dwellings climbed 3.2% which was the fastest since August 2007
    Multi family Permits also rose by a strong 8.2%


    US housing start for October 2019 1314K v 1320K estimate.[/b]
    Prior month revised to 1266K from 1256K previously reported
    Housing starts rose 3.8% versus 5.1% estimate and -7.9% last month

    Single-family home starts increase 2% which was the strongest reading since January
    Starts for multifamily category which can be volatile increased 8.6%.

    On Thursday existing home sales which account for about 90% of the US home sales will be released. The estimate is for a 5.49M annualized


    US October pending home sales -1.7% v +0.2% expected
    Prior was +1.5%

    Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US jumped 4.4 percent from a year earlier in October of 2019 amid lower mortgage rates. That was the largest annual increase in pending home sales since December 2015, as contracts were up in all 4 main regions: the West (7.5 percent), the South (5.1 percent), the Northeast (3 percent) and the Midwest (1.8 percent).

    On a monthly basis, pending home sales shrank 1.7 percent, while markets were expecting a 0.8 percent rise. The Northeast experienced a minor uptick (1.9 percent), but the other three major US regions reported declines: the West (-3.4 percent), the Midwest (-2.7 percent) and the South (-1.7 percent). Lawrence Yun,

    NAR’s chief economist, noted the decline in inventory and a small rise in mortgage rates in October from September to, in part, explain this month’s signings drop.

    “While contract signings have decreased, the overall economic landscape remains favorable,” Yun said. Pending Home Sales in the United States averaged 0.75 percent from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.90 percent in October of 2009 and a record low of -24.30 percent in April of 2011.

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