US Advance Estimates Q3 GDP 3.5%, Higher Than Expected

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  • #18718
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5% in…

    [article]1142[/article]

    #18737
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    NY Fed NOWCASTING REPORT Updated:October26,2018

    Today’s advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2018:Q3 from the Commerce Department was 3.5%. The latest New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 was 2.2%.

    The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.5%.

    News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point.

    Positive surprises from manufacturing data accounted for most of the increase.

    #18751
    ThePitBoss
    Participant

    GDP did beat estimates but it wasn’t long ago they were hyping this over 4%

    #18928
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    NY Fed Q4 GDP Nowcast rose to 2.61% from 2.55% this week.

    “Positive surprises from labor and international trade data were only partially offset by negative surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey,” the latest report said.

    #19027
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 forecast lowered to 2.5% from 2.8%

    “The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after yesterday morning’s industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -2.6 percent to -6.3 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

    #19039
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Atlanta Fed GDPNow UNCH Q4: 2.5% from prev 2.5%)

    Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — November 21, 2018

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 20. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 11.5 percent to 10.5 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -6.3 percent to -4.1 percent after this morning’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.

    The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 29. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

    #19108
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Q3 advance GDP (second reading) 3.5% vs 3.5% expected

    Same as initial reading of 3.5%
    Q2 was 4.2%
    Q1 was 2.2%

    US Core PCE Prices Prelim Q3: 1.50% (est 1.60% ; prev 1.60%)
    US PCE Prices Prelim Q3: 1.50% (est 1.60% ; prev 1.60%)
    US GDP Deflator Prelim: Q3: 1.40% (est 1.40% ; prev 1.40%)

    US GDP Sales Prelim Q3: 1.20% (est 1.40% ; prev 1.40%)
    US GDP Consumer Spending Prelim Q3: 3.60% (prev 4.00%)
    US Corporate Profits Prelim Q3: 3.30% (est 2.00% ; prev 2.10%)


    US GDP Business investment +2.5% vs +0.8% initially

    Home investment -2.6% vs -4.0% initially
    Business investment in structures -1.7% vs -7.9% initially

    Year over year GDP 3.0%
    Inventories +$86.6B vs $76.3B initially
    Inventories add 2.27 percentage points to GDP
    After tax corporate profits +3.3% vs +2.0% expected (Q2 was +2.1%)

    #19204
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 forecast 2.7% vs 2.8% prior

    “The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.42 percent to -0.50 percent after this morning’s international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

    #19337
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Final US GDP 3Q 3.4% vs 3.5% pa estimate

    Prior estimate was 3.5%

    Personal Consumption 3.5% vs 3.6% estimate, prior estimate was 3.6%
    GDP Price index 1.8% vs 1.7% estimate and prior

    Core PCE QoQ 1.6% vs 1.5% estimate

    Contributions to GDP

    Consumption, +2.37%
    Investment, +2.53%. Inventory accumulation added 2.33% of that number
    Net exports, -1.99%. Exports, -0.62%. Imports -1.37%
    Government, 0.44%. Federal government +0.23%. State and local, +0.22%
    Ex inventory, the GDP would be 1.07%.

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