US Advance Estimates Q2 GDP 4.1%, Lower Than Expected

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    Helmholtz Watson

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.1% in…



    President Trump speaks after the GDP numbers

    Growth could be substantially more than 3%
    I happen to think our next report will be outstanding
    As the trade deals come in, growth will be a lot higher


    Strong numbers with consumption – trade tensions are real though – lets see if EU deal is resolved as foreshadowed by Junker/Trump

    Helmholtz Watson

    US Treasury Sec Mnuchin on GDP

    US in a sustained period of 3% GDP for next 4-5 years
    Believes Federal Reserve will be ‘very careful’ in its handling of economy
    In Juncker conversations there were specific talks about reducing agricultural barriers
    US specifically talked about soybeans with Europe


    Initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 3Q growth 4.7%, Up from 4.1% in the 2Q

    The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent. The advance estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 4.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on the previous day.


    [color=purple][b]Moving corporate TAX rates from 35% to 22% should actually move GDP beyond 4.1% … but as improved conditions ensue — we need to carefully watch for higher taxes :woohoo: …

    LOL – even some of OIL millionaires of PAST got sticker shock on their IRS TAX bill
    as noted in one of best episodes of all time[/b][/color]


    US Q2 GDP (second reading) +4.2% vs +4.0% expected previous was 4.1%
    – This is the second reading of Q2 2018 GDP

    Personal consumption 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
    GDP price index 3.0% vs 3.0% exp
    Prior price index 3.0%
    Core PCE q/q 2.0% vs 2.0% initially
    Consumer spending on durables +8.6% vs +9.3% initially
    Business investment 8.5% vs 7.3% initially
    Home investment -1.6% vs -1.1% initially
    Exports +9.1% vs +9.3% initially
    Imports -0.4% vs +0.5% initially
    GDP +2.9% y/y vs +2.8% initially
    Inventories -$26.9B vs -$27.9B initially

    Change in imports added 1.17 pp compared to 1.06 pp prior.
    Personal consumption down to 2.55 pp compared to 2.69 pp prior


    US Q2 GDP (third est) +4.2% vs +4.2% expected
    +The second reading was +4.2%
    Q1 growth 2.2%
    H1 growth 3.2%
    Business inventories -$36.8B vs -$26.9B previously
    Inventories cut 1.17 percentage points from GDP
    GDP ex motor vehicles +4.5% vs +4.5% previously
    Home investment -1.3% vs -1.6% previously
    Final Q2 GDP deflator +3.3% vs +3.2% previously
    Consumer spending +3.8% vs +3.8% previously

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