US Advance Estimates Q1 GDP +3.2% v +2.3% Expected

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  • #20567
    Helmholtz Watson
    Participant

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.2% in…

    [article]1484[/article]

    #21087
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    US Q1 GDP ( 3rd rev) 3.1% q/q Annualized vs +3.2% Expected

    Second estimate was +3.1% q/q annualized

    Personal consumption v +1.3% in 2nd estimate
    Core PCE +1.2% vs +1.0% expected
    GDP Deflator I111.37 Index Points in the first quarter of 2019 from 111.19 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2018.

    GDP price index 1.0% vs +0.8% expected
    Q4 was 2.2% after initial 2.6%
    Q3 was 3.4%
    GDP final sales +2.6% vs +2.5% initially

    Personal consumption +0.9% vs +1.3% in 2nd estimate
    Q4 personal consumption was +2.5%

    Consumer spending on durables -2.3% vs -4.6% in 2nd estimate

    Business investment +4.4% vs +2.3% in 2nd estimate
    Business investment on equipment -1.0% (unchanged)
    Business investment on IP/software +12.0% vs +7.2% prior
    Home investment -2.0% vs -3.5% in 2nd estimate

    Exports +5.4% vs +4.8% in 2nd estimate
    Imports -1.9% vs -2.5% initially

    Contributions:

    Consumption added 0.62 pp
    Net trade added 0.94 to GDP vs 0.96 pp in 2nd estimate
    Business inventories add 0.55 vs 0.6 pp in 2nd estimate
    Government consumption added 0.48 pp
    Q1 corporate profits after tax -3.5%

    #21088
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Corporate Profits

    Q1 corporate profits after tax -3.5%

    Corporate profits in the United States declined by USD 63.9 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the first quarter of 2019 to USD 2,012.3 billion, after being unchanged in the previous period at USD 2,076 billion and below an initial estimate of a 3.5 percent fall.

    The largest decrease in corporate profits since Q4 2014 when they fell 5.2 percent. Undistributed profits went down by USD 23.8 billion, or 3 percent, to USD 772.9 billion; and net dividends declined by USD 40 billion, or 3.1 percent, to USD 1,239.5 billion.

    Meanwhile, net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, rose by USD 14.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, to USD 2,629.2 billion. Corporate Profits in the United States averaged 488.85 USD Billion from 1950 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2076.82 USD Billion in the third quarter of 2018 and a record low of 14.70 USD Billion in the first quarter of 1951.

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