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US January employment trends 118.74 v 116.31 prior from The Conference Board
“The ETI rose for the second consecutive month in January, a reversal of a short-lived declining trend in 2022,” said Selcuk Eren, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite rapid interest rate hikes—which were expected to reduce labor demand—we haven’t seen widespread layoffs. Indeed, hiring was outsized and broadly based in the January employment report. Robust hiring continues to keep the ETI at a very high level and the economy is still experiencing significant job gains in industries where labor shortages have been most acute.”
Eren added: “Labor shortages will continue to be the theme going forward. We have seen job gains in industries—including leisure and hospitality and government—where employment is still below prepandemic levels. Likewise, job openings and voluntary quits are below their historic highs but still above prepandemic levels. The number of employees working in temporary help services—a component of the ETI and an important leading indicator for hiring—increased in January after falling for two consecutive months. This is revised from an originally reported five-month decline. Thus far, job losses seem to be limited to the information sector, which include most tech companies. One sign of rebalancing in the labor market may be slower wage growth. Hourly wage growth—which stands at 4.4 percent year-over-year in January—remains above prepandemic levels, but is on a declining trend after reaching 5.9 percent last year. For the rest of 2023, we anticipate the Federal Reserve will continue increasing interest rates in order to reduce labor market tightness and bring wage growth and inflation under control.”
The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)*
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**Feds Powell on the blowout NFP Jobs:
“- Labor market is extraordinarily strong
– There is now a shortage of workers in the US and ‘it almost feels structural
– The labor market is ‘at least’ at maximum employment”Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 11 decreased by 1,000 to 194,000 (consensus 203,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 4 increased by 16,000 to 1.696 million.
The key takeaway from the report is that the persistence of initial claims below 200,000 reflects a very tight labor market, and a reluctance on the part of most companies to cut their workforce, which will continue to drive worries at the Fed about tight labor market conditions feeding into sticker wage-based inflation pressures.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 18 declined by 3,000 to 192,000 (consensus 200,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 11 decreased by 37,000 to 1.654 million.
The key takeaway from the report is it covers the period in which the survey for the February employment report was taken. The remarkably low level of initial claims will contribute to expectations for another strong gain in nonfarm payrolls and the Fed sticking to its tightening ways.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 25 declined by 2,000 to 190,000 (consensus 197,000) and continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 18 declined by 5,000 to 1.655 million.
The key takeaway from the report remains the same, which is to say the remarkably low level of initial claims — a leading indicator — remains indicative of a tight labor market where employers are reluctant to cut jobs, fostering a concern that tightness in the labor market will lead to sticky wage-based inflation pressures.
US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 195K expected
– Highest since December 3 (Sans Christmas).
p Continuing claims 1718K vs 1659K expected
Prior continuing claims 1655K
Bonds $ES_F Higher, USD LowerUS Nonfarm Payrolls in January rose 311,000, much higher than the expected 205,000 after the prior increase revised 504,000 increase in January (from
[See the full post at: U.S. Grappling with Tech Layoffs and Bank Crisis’s Adds More Jobs with Unemployment Rising]
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