U.S. Trade Deficit Rises to $46.3 Billion, With China To $32.50 Billion (2)

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    With tariffs and trade wars front and center…


    Helmholtz Watson

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow Lowered After Trade and Vehicle Sales to 4.4% from 4.7%

    “After this morning’s international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.70 percentage points to -0.76 percentage points. After this morning’s light vehicle sales release from the BEA, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.6 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively,” the report says.


    Exports as share of GDP, 2016.

    Germany: 46%
    Sweden: 44%
    EU: 43%
    South Korea: 42%
    Mexico: 38%
    Spain: 33%
    Canada: 31%
    Saudi: 31%
    Italy: 30%
    Israel: 30%
    France: 29%
    UK: 28%
    Russia: 26%
    Turkey: 22%
    China: 20%
    India: 19%
    Indonesia: 19%
    Australia: 19%
    Japan: 16%
    Brazil: 12%
    US: 12%


    Trump on AirForce One:

    Trump on Japan

    If we do not make a deal with Japan, they know it will be a big deal.
    Yesterday recall he said that trouble was coming in their trading relationship.


    Trump On Canada

    – said that talks were moving along and “we’ll see what happens.” version


    Trump on Air Force 1,

    Not unexpected as the US comment period on $200 billion of proposed tariffs ended yesterday.

    Trump says got another $267 billion in tariffs ready to go on short notice if he wants.

    The administration could announce the implementation timeline for the $200 billion in tariffs at any time.


    China Record trade surplus with US

    Over the weekend China published August trade balance showing China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to a record despite export growth slowing slightly. More ammo for President Donald Trump to push further on Beijing.

    Over the first eight months of the year, China’s surplus with its largest export market has risen nearly 15 percent, adding to tensions in the trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

    “There is still an impact from front-loading of exports, but the main reason (for still-solid export growth) is strong growth in the U.S. economy,” said Zhang Yi, an economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management.



    US Reaching Out To China For New Round of Trade Talks with China – WSJ:

    The U.S. is reaching out to China for a new round of trade talks, in an effort to give Beijing another opportunity to address Washington’s concerns over trade issues before the Trump administration implements additional tariffs on Chinese imports, according to people briefed on the matter.

    Senior U.S. officials, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, recently sent an invitation to Chinese counterparts headed by Vice Premier Liu He, proposing another meeting to talk about bilateral trade, the people said.

    The U.S. side has proposed to have the discussions in the coming weeks, and has asked the Chinese to dispatch a ministerial-level delegation for the talks. The proposed meeting might take place either in Washington or Beijing, the people said.

    Helmholtz Watson

    Japan’s Cabinet office Monthly Economy Update

    Noted trade war between the United States and China could hurt Japan U.S. market, with a large portion of Japan’s exports to China used to make smartphones destined for the US.

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