- 18 May '18 at 3:53 pm #16670Helmholtz WatsonParticipant
The U.S. dollar and US Treasury yields continued…
[article]810[/article]21 May '18 at 5:51 pm #16710TrumanParticipant
As core yields rise and the dollar strengthens, emerging markets with deepening current account deficits remain under pressure.
YTD returns in EM credit and EM local markets now stand at -3.7% and -2.4%, respectively, while EM dedicated bond and equity funds had their worst week of outflows last week since the volatility spike in February23 May '18 at 7:07 pm #16728TradersComKeymaster
Fed’s Mester speaking in Boersen Zeitung
Markets are in-line with Fed rate expectations
The difference between 2 or 3 more hikes this year is marginal for the economy
If inflation does not pick up as expected, that’s an agreement to wait longer and be more cautious23 May '18 at 10:48 pm #16733TradersComKeymaster
Highlights of Minutes of May 2 FOMC meeting
Trade talks raised a ‘particularly wide’ range of risks
Fed funds could reach neutral level ‘before too long’ if rate increases continued noted by a few
Some Governors say it may soon be appropriate to change guidance
Most saw little evidence of overheating of labor market with wage pressures ‘still moderate’
A few cautioned that inflation expectations remained somewhat low
Majority see firming of inflation providing ‘reassurance’ that 2% would be reached
Some officials saw forward-guidance revisions appropriate soon
‘A few’ noted yield curve less reliable economic signal, while ‘several’ thought it remains important to watch as a recession warning
Modest inflation overshoot ‘could be helpful’
Most felt it would ‘soon be appropriate’ to hike should outlook remain intact24 May '18 at 10:01 pm #16741MoneyNeverSleepsParticipant
Pres. of the Philadelphia Fed Harker
Sees 3 hikes this year if inflation does not accelerate
We are getting close to neutral rate
Would not want to go far over the neutral rate
Possible that 2019 end of tightening cycle
Sees 3 hikes next year24 May '18 at 10:08 pm #16742MoneyNeverSleepsParticipant
US 7 year note auction – $30B of at 2.930% vs. 2.935% WI
Bid to cover at 2.62x vs 2.56x at the last auction – highest since January.
12.9% to direct bidders – highest since February.
65.5% to indirect bidders v 65.8% at the last auction.
21.6% to primary dealers
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