U.K. Manufacturing Sector Still Contracting After Brexit Stockpiling Flurry

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    Helmholtz Watson

    The UK manufacturing sector in June fell…



    Be interesting if see any improvement before we get NO Deal or not and Johnson PM

    Helmholtz Watson

    UK July CBI trends total orders -34 v -15 expected and prior

    Falls to its weakest level since April 2010
    Mainly due to a strong fall in export orders -32 v -12 in June
    Domestic price expectations +12 v +4
    Stock of finished goods +18 vs +12
    Outlook for next 3 months improved +6 vs +3.

    Factory Orders in the United Kingdom averaged -18.16 Net Balance from 1977 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 21 Net Balance in May of 1988 and a record low of -79 Net Balance in October of 1980.

    CBI = Confederation for British Industry


    UK September Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 43.3 vs 45.0 expected and prior

    Another sign of business optimism hit by disappointment linked to Brexit.

    Fifth consecutive month of contraction in the construction sector and the second steepest since April 2009, as new work went down sharply amid Brexit uncertainty and weak demand.

    Commercial activity was the worst performing area of activity; civil engineering dropped at a similarly steep rate that was the fastest in close to a decade; and residential building fell for the 4th straight month.

    Buying levels decreased at the fastest pace since January 2010 due to lower operational requirements and increased efforts to contain costs. Also, the job creation rate fell at the strongest pace since December 2010.

    Input cost inflation slowed to a 3-1/2-year low. Looking ahead, business sentiment was weak by historical standards, due to competitive pressures, Brexit uncertainty and economic concerns.

    Construction Pmi in the United Kingdom is reported by Markit Economics.


    UK October manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 48.2 expected Prior 48.3

    UK Manufacturing PMI at 49.6 in October (6-month high)Downturns in output, new orders and employment Stock-building activity gathers pace

    Markit – 1 November 2019

    UK Manufacturing PMI rises to 6-month high of 49.6, but still indicative of contraction in the sector.

    Markit note that:

    “The underlying picture looks even darker than even these disappointing headline numbers suggest. It looks as if the specter of uncertainty will cast its shadow over manufacturing for the remainder of 2019.”

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