Traders Market Weekly: Half Year Rebalancing High Wire Act

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    Dow 30,483.13 -47.12 -0.15%
    S&P 500 3,759.89 -4.90 -0.13%
    Nasdaq 11,053.08 -16.22 -0.15%
    GlobalDow 3,514.38 -13.76 -0.39%
    Gold 1,832.90 -5.50 -0.30%
    Oil 106.00 -0.19 -0.18%


    And good THU morning to all … DOW Futures up around +100 due to oversold conditions
    GAS has come down a few pennies over time to $4.95 as decreased demand world wide will factor in
    Still a beautiful SUMMER day ahead in SW VA … as brand new baby FAWNS are starting to appear 🙂


    Here we go..

    Another Day another debt..
    S&P 500 futures are 0.5% above fair value;
    Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.5% above fair value;
    DJIA futures are 0.4% above fair value

    Key factors driving the futures market:

    Lingering belief that market is deeply oversold and due for a rebound into quarter end
    Long-term rates keep slipping (10-yr at 3.12% after flirting with 3.50% on June 14)
    Eurozone posts weaker-than-expected flash PMI readings for June
    Norges Bank hikes key policy rate by larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 1.25% (25 basis points expected)
    China’s Xi says country will step up its macroeconomic policy adjustment, according to CNBC
    Russia making inroad in eastern Ukraine, with reports suggesting it is close to takeover of Luhansk province
    Energy company executives to meet in D.C. today to discuss production plans
    Fed Chair Powell appears at 10:00 a.m. ET before House Financial Services Committee for day two of his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
    Darden Restaurants (DRI) and KB Home (KBH) post better-than-expected earnings results


    Brokerage research calls of note:

    Upgrades: FNKO, LUV


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note.

    A summit of BRICS leaders began in Beijing today. A former Bank of Japan official said that the BoJ’s pledge to keep borrowing costs low is leading to a problematic feedback loop of yen depreciation.
    There was growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will abandon its yield curve control policy.
    Bank of Korea Senior Deputy Governor Lee said that inflation needs to be tamed through pre-emptive policy and that rate hikes will only have a limited impact on growth.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.1%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.3%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +1.6%
    India’s Sensex: +0.9%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%


    Japan’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 52.7 (last 53.3) and flash Services PMI 54.2 (last 52.6)
    South Korea’s May PPI 0.5% m/m (last 1.6%); 9.7% yr/yr (last 9.7%)
    Australia’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 55.8 (last 55.7) and flash June Services PMI 52.6 (last 53.2)
    Singapore’s May CPI 5.6% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 5.4%)


    Major European indices trade on a modestly lower note while Germany’s DAX (-1.0%) underperforms.

    Germany and France saw their Manufacturing and Services PMIs weaken in flash readings for June while the U.K.’s Manufacturing PMI also decreased from last month’s level. Germany reportedly triggered a second stage of its three-stage gas emergency plan due to reduced supply from Russia.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%
    Germany’s DAX: -1.0%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.3%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.1%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%


    Eurozone’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 52.0 (expected 53.9; last 54.6) and flash Services PMI 52.8 (expected 55.5; last 56.1)
    Germany’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 52.0 (expected 54.0; last 54.8) and flash Services PMI 52.4 (expected 54.5; last 55.0)
    U.K.’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 53.4 (expected 53.7; last 54.6) and flash Services PMI 53.4 (expected 53.0; last 53.4). June CBI Distributive Trades Survey -5 (expected -3; last -1). May Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP13.23 bln (expected GBP13.20 bln; last GBP21.13 bln)
    France’s flash June Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (expected 54.0; last 54.6) and flash Services PMI 54.4 (expected 57.6; last 58.3). June Business Survey 108 (expected 105; last 106)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%


    Today’s weakest sectors are the cyclical energy (-3.7%), materials (-1.4%), industrials (-1.1%), and financial (-1.1%) sectors.
    There is broad-based weakness in the commodities markets, which includes declines for WTI crude futures ($105.26/bbl, -0.93, -0.9%), copper futures ($3.78/lb, -0.16, -4.0%), and lumber futures ($600.40/bft, -11.20, -1.8%).

    The 2-yr note yield, which hit 3.43% a little more than a week ago, is back to 2.97%. The 10-yr note yield, which flirted with 3.50% a little more than a week ago, is back to 3.05%.

    The mega-cap stocks, which are seen as having better earnings dependability in a slowdown, are outperforming. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is up 1.1%.

    The countercyclical consumer staples (+1.5%), utilities (+1.4%), and health care (+1.4%) sectors are in demand and have led this week’s gains.

    Travel-related stocks are among today’s more notable laggards.


    Dow 30337.16 -145.97 (-0.48%)
    Nasdaq 11082.58 +29.51 (0.27%)
    SP 500 3751.35 -8.54 (-0.23%)

    NYSE Adv 1649 Dec 1529 Vol 417 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2422 Dec 1915 Vol 2.8 bln

    Strong: Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities, Health Care
    Weak: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials

    Moving the Market
    — Continued rebound effort from short-term oversold condition
    — Weakness in cyclical sectors
    — Drop in Treasury yields
    — Leadership from the mega caps


    Preliminary June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI reading was 52.4 compared to 57.0 for May. The preliminary June IHS Markit Services PMI reading was 51.6 compared to 53.4 for May.

    The Q1 Current Account Balance widened to -$291.4 billion (-$279.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$224.8 billion (from -$217.9 billion) in Q1.

    • This reply was modified 2 years ago by TradersCom.

    Dow 30,677.36 194.23 0.64%
    S&P 500 3,795.73 35.84 0.95%
    Nasdaq 11,232.19 179.11 1.62%
    GlobalDow 3,497.57 -30.57 -0.87%
    Gold 1,826.30 -12.10 -0.66%
    Oil 104.22 -1.97 -1.86%


    and a HELEN RODGERS special from around 2000 — she had voice of an angel
    as we celebrate SUMMER & a few days of stability this week


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +1.2% (+2.0% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.1% (+3.1% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.9% (+1.0% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: +0.9% (+2.7% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: +2.3% (-3.1% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1% (+1.5% for the week)


    South Korea’s vice finance minister said that the trade deficit is expected to widen in June due to a temporary slowdown in exports.
    Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese called on China to remove sanctions on AUD 20 bln worth of exports to China.
    Election polls from Japan suggest that the country’s ruling party will maintain majority after the upper house election on July 10.

    Japan’s May CPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.4%); 2.5% yr/yr (last 2.5%). May National Core CPI 2.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.1%). April Corporate Services Price Index 1.8% yr/yr (last 1.7%)
    Singapore’s May Industrial Production 10.9% m/m (expected 2.8%; last 2.1%); 13.8% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 6.4%)

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