Traders Market Weekly: War Drums, Bond Routes, Magnificent Seven Earnings

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    U.K.’s September CPI 0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 6.7% yr/yr (expected 6.6%; last 6.7%).
    September Core CPI 0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.1%); 6.1% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.2%).
    September Input PPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 0.8%) and Output PPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%).
    September House Prices 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last 0.7%)

    The U.K.’s CPI showed no sequential deceleration in the yr/yr growth rate for September (6.7%) as rising fuel prices offset lower food prices.

    British homebuilder Barratt Developments warned of a tough housing market due to low housing availability and high mortgage costs.


    United Airlines (UAL 38.04, -2.08, -5.2%): beats by $0.27, reports revs in-line; issues weaker than expected guidance for Q4
    Procter & Gamble (PG 148.70, +2.44, +1.7%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, guides FY24 revs in-line
    Travelers (TRV 169.50, +0.14, +0.1%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, revs in-line
    J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT 189.97, -6.04, -3.1%): misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line
    U.S. Bancorp (USB 34.60, -0.29, -0.8%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus
    Citizens Financial Group (CFG 26.30, -0.80, -3.0%): misses by $0.06
    Morgan Stanley (MS 78.09, -2.24, -2.8%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line
    Abbott Labs (ABT 94.40, +2.26, +2.5%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus


    NVIDIA (NVDA 433.40, -5.98, -1.4%): disclosed last night it does not anticipate that the additional restrictions will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results; Citi cut its price target to $575 from $630 and maintained a Buy rating


    Microsoft (MSFT 333.32, +1.26, +0.4%): preparing to bring Amazon (AMZN) as a customer of its 365 cloud tools in a $1.0 bln five-year deal, according to Business Insider


    Housing starts increased 7.0% month-over-month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.358 million units (consensus 1.380 million) while building permits declined 4.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.473 million (consensus 1.448 million).

    The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in permits for multi-unit dwellings. Single-unit starts were up 3.2% and single-unit permits rose 1.8%, which is welcome for a supply-challenged housing market.

    Treasury yields were already climbing ahead of the data before selling increased after the release.

    The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 5.21% after hitting 5.15% earlier.
    The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.87% after hitting 4.81% earlier.


    High Rates Choking Housing:

    US MBA mortgage applications w/e 13 October -6.9% v +0.6% prior
    Market index 166.9 vs 179.3 prior
    Purchase index 129.8 vs 137.5 prior
    Refinance index 347.6 vs 385.8 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 7.70% vs 7.67% prior



    Dow 33,665.08 -332.57 -0.98%
    S&P 500 4,314.60 -58.60 -1.34%
    Nasdaq 13,314.30 -219.44 -1.62%
    VIX 19.22 1.34 7.49%
    Gold 1,960.30 24.60 1.27%
    Oil 88.16 1.50 1.73%

    Hopefully stocks won’t head too far down to the CENTRE of the EARTH
    As noted in one of FAV albums all-time by great keyboard/Moog artist from YES in 1974 🙂


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.9%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -2.5%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -1.7%,
    India’s Sensex: -0.4%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.9%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.3%.


    China’s September House Prices -0.1% yr/yr (last -0.1%)

    Hong Kong may lower its property purchase tax.


    Japan reported an unexpected trade surplus for September thanks in part to higher demand for vehicles amid the autoworkers strike in the United States.

    Japan’s September trade surplus JPY62.4 bln (expected deficit of JPY450 mln; last deficit of JPY937.8 bln).
    September Imports -16.3% yr/yr (expected -12.9%; last -17.7%) and Exports 4.3% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last -0.8%)

    A former Bank of Japan official said that the BoJ could end negative interest rate policy by the end of this year before adjusting the terms of yield curve control.

    The Bank of Japan’s regional economic report raised the assessment of six out of nine regions.


    Australia’s September Employment Change 6,700 (expected 20,000; last 63,300) and full employment -39,900 (last 7,200). September Unemployment Rate 3.6% (expected 3.7%; last 3.7%)
    September Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 67.0%; last 67.0%). NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -1 (last -4)

    The Reserve Bank of Australia recorded an accounting loss of AUD6 bln for FY23.


    Major European indices trade on a lower note while Germany’s DAX (-0.2%) outperforms thanks in part to relative strength in SAP after the software company missed Q3 expectations but reaffirmed its outlook for the year.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.7%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.2%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.9%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.6%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.9%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.6%.


    Eurozone’s August Current Account surplus EUR27.7 bln (last surplus of EUR21.0 bln)

    France’s September Business Survey 98 (expected 99; last 99)
    Renault’s Q3 report showed that sales growth was well shy of expectations, weighing on the stock in France.

    Spain’s September trade deficit EUR4.40 bln (last deficit of EUR4.90 bln)

    Swiss September trade surplus CHF6.316 bln (expected surplus of CHF3.77 bln; last surplus of CHF3.81 bln)

    Nokia is planning to reduce its labor force by up to 15%.


    Tesla (TSLA 225.85, -16.91, -7.0%): misses by $0.07, misses on revs, gross margin down 30 bps qtr/qtr, reaffirms FY23 production outlook of 1.8 mln vehicles, says Cybertruck deliveries remain on track for later this year

    Netflix (NLFX 392.70, +46.51, +13.4%): beats by $0.24, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; expects Q4 paid net adds will be similar to Q3 give or take a few million; raises prices for some plans in US, UK and France

    AT&T (T 14.97, +0.65, +4.5%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, revs in-line; raises FCF guidance

    American Airlines (AAL 11.45, +0.09, +0.8%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; sees Q4 adj. operating margin of 2-4%

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 93.09, +3.49, +3.9%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus

    Lam Research (LRCX 622.85, -19.39, -3.0%): beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q2 (Dec) EPS in-line, revs in-line

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS 47.25, +2.65, +5.9%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; announces dividend and increased buyback authorization

    SAP SE (SAP 133.95, +6.34, +5.0%): beats by €0.11, misses slightly on revs; reaffirms FY23 guidance

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