Traders Market Weekly: War, Inflation and Central Banks

Viewing 13 posts - 16 through 28 (of 28 total)
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    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note while markets in India were closed for a holiday.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.4%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.3%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.2%,
    India’s Sensex: HOLIDAY,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.1%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%.

    China’s CPI deflated more than expected in March.
    March CPI -1.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.0%); 0.1% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.7%).
    March PPI -2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last -2.7%)

    March M2 Money Stock 2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.4%)
    The Japanese yen slipped to a fresh low for the year against the dollar, briefly touching levels not seen since 1990.
    Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said that the “background” of the weakening is more important than price levels.
    Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida and President Biden announced that Japan, Australia, and the U.S. will create a joint air missile and defense system.

    April MI Inflation Expectations 4.6% (last 4.3%).
    February Building Approvals -1.9% m/m, as expected (last -2.5%)
    Private House Approvals 10.7% m/m, as expected (last -9.9%)

    South Korea
    Exports through the first ten days of April were up 21.6% yr/yr with chip exports jumping 45.5%.
    South Korea’s ruling party lost its parliamentary majority.


    Major European indices trade in the red.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.6%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.3%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.2%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.9%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.9%.

    February Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -1.4%); -3.1% yr/yr (last -3.7%)

    Bank of England policymaker Greene said that rate cuts in the U.K. should not be taking place yet and that growing rate cut bets are misguided.
    A Bank of England survey showed growing availability of secured credit to households between December and February with continued growth expected between March and May.


    CarMax (KMX 72.49, -6.81, -8.6%): misses by $0.16, misses on revs
    Fastenal (FAST 70.46, -4.28, -5.7%): misses by $0.01, misses on revs

    Regeneron Pharma (REGN 926.94, -9.26, -1.0%): U.S. files False Claims Act complaint against REGN for fraudulent pricing reporting
    NIKE (NKE 90.41, +1.41, +1.6%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America

    Amazon (AMZN 185.49, -0.46, -0.3%): CEO Andy Jassy issues letter to shareholders; will have to pay $525 mln related to cloud patients, according to Reuters


    Alpine Immune Sciences (ALPN 64.31, +17.27, +36.7%): Vertex Pharma (VRTX) enters into agreement to acquire Alpine Immune Sciences for $65/share or ~$4.9 bln in cash


    The March Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) after increasing by 0.6% in February. The Producer Price Index for final demand, excluding food and energy (core PPI), also increased 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%) after increasing 0.3% in February. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 2.1% versus 1.6% in February while core PPI was up 2.4% versus 2.1% in February.

    The key takeaway from the report is that even with the smaller than expected month-over-month increases, the year-over-year growth rates for PPI and core PPI accelerated.

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 6 decreased by 11,000 to 211,000 (218,000) from last week’s revised level of 222,000 (from 221,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 30 increased by 28,000 to 1.817 million from last week’s revised level of 1.789 million (from 1.791 million).

    The key takeaway from the report is that claims remain in a sideways range near the 210,000 level, which is not reflective of any sudden weakening in the labor market.

    Yield Check:

    2-yr: -4 bps to 4.93%
    3-yr: -4 bps to 4.76%
    5-yr: -3 bps to 4.58%
    10-yr: -3 bps to 4.53%
    30-yr: UNCH at 4.63%


    ^^^ +1s for great updates above

    RALLY TIME DOOMERS 🙂 … PPI came in slightly lower than expected
    and WALL STREET is rallying back (esp. with good PCE being 1 of key indices FED follows)
    Still, in reviewing menu for nice STEAKHOUSE in ROANOKE, VA area (for better 1/2 birthday)
    an 8 OZ Sirloin was priced at $44 — which was a SHOCK to us
    While INFLATION may calm down some, the DAMAGE has been done as prices won’t come down
    Our GOVT must get DEBT under control with a balanced budget — it’s as simple/complex as that


    Dow 38,459.08 -2.43 -0.01%
    S&P 500 5,199.06 38.42 0.74%
    Nasdaq 16,442.20 271.84 1.68%
    VIX 14.91 -0.89 -5.63%
    Gold 2,393.00 44.60 1.90%
    Oil 85.55 -0.66 -0.77%


    “INFLATION REALITIES” justed blocked out all that “IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE”
    And with GAS/OIL increases during next 2-3 months, INFLATION has bound to continue
    We’ll be lucky to avoid RATE HIKES (as any near term chance of CUT is becoming less likely)
    INDEXS off about 1% to give back some from yesterday


    Dow 37,983.24 -475.84 -1.24%
    S&P 500 5,123.41 -75.65 -1.46%
    Nasdaq 16,175.09 -267.10 -1.62%
    VIX 17.48 2.57 17.24%
    Gold 2,362.00 -10.70 -0.45%
    Oil 85.52 0.50 0.59%

    Helmholtz Watson

    #BREAKING Iran has launched an extensive drone and missile attack at Israel

    -Israeli military, White House & Iranian state media have confirmed an attack was under way.
    -US pledged to back Israel.
    – Jordan, Lebanon close airspace
    – Egypt calls for restraint

    Iranian drones are expected to hit the Golan Hrights and an air force base in the southern Negev desert, the New York Times has reported, citing two senior Israeli officials.

    According to a separate report in Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the first Iranian drones are expected to reach Israel about 2am local time (9am AEST).

    A senior US official told ABC News the attack was expected to consist of between 400-500 drones and missiles.

    The slow-moving drones were launched from Iran a number of hours ago and have been accompanied by faster-moving cruise missiles.

    Jordan, Lebanon close airspace as Egypt calls for restraint


    Jordan’s air defences were ready to intercept and shoot down any Iranian drones or aircraft that violate its airspace, two regional security sources said.

    They said the army was also in a state of high alert and radar systems were monitoring any drone activity coming from the direction of Iraq and Syria.

    Residents in several cities in the northern part of the country near Syria and central and southern areas heard heavy aerial activity. A security source said the country’s air force was intensifying reconnaissance flights.

    Jordan had earlier said it closed its airspace starting on Saturday night to all incoming, departing and transiting aircraft in what officials told Reuters were precautionary measures in the event of an Iranian strike across its border.

    Lebanon also ordered the temporary closure of its airspace early on Sunday, according to reports from local outlet Al Jadeed TV.

    Egypt called for exercise of “utmost restraint” following the latest outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

    UK PM Sunak condemns Iran’s ‘reckless’ attack against Israel


    British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Saturday (Sunday AEST) he condemned Iran’s “reckless” attack against Israel, which he said showed that it was “intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard”.

    Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel, an attack that may trigger a major escalation between the regional archenemies.

    “These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilising the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard,” Sunak said in a statement.

    “The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq.”

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