Traders Market Weekly: Consumers Along for The Ride

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    the rain has been steady but seems news reports exaggerated as seen no issues in Houston


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.3%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.2%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.8%,
    India’s Sensex: -1.5%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.2%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0%.

    April trade surplus $72.35 bln (expected surplus of $81.40 bln; last surplus of $58.55 bln). April Imports 8.4% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last -1.9%) and Exports 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last -7.5%)
    Chinese property names held up well even though Country Garden acknowledged that it would miss a yuan-denominated interest payment.

    March Average Cash Earnings 0.6% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.4%).
    March Leading Index 111.4 (expected 111.3; last 112.1)
    Coincident Indicator 2.4% m/m (last -0.7%)
    Japanese officials continued threatening to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

    South Korea
    March Current Account surplus $6.93 bln (last surplus of $6.86 bln)
    South Korea’s President Yoon said that his government is focused on shifting the structure of the domestic economy toward private-led businesses.

    March Building Approvals 1.9% m/m, as expected (last -0.9%) and Private House Approvals 3.8% m/m, as expected (last 12.4%)


    Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note.

    STOXX Europe 600: UNCH,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.5%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.1%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: UNCH,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.2%.

    Spain’s IBEX (-1.2%) underperforms with BBVA falling more than 6.0% after submitting a hostile takeover bid for Banco Sabadell.
    The overall volume is on the light side and Switzerland’s market is closed for Ascension Day.

    European Central Bank policymaker Holzmann said that there is no reason to lower rates too quickly while policymaker Wunsch said that there is still a risk in wages and prices of services.

    The Bank of England left its bank rate at 5.25%, as expected.
    The National Institute of Economic and Social Research expects that the BoE’s initial rate cut will take place in August.



    Airbnb (ABNB 143.54, -14.36, -9.1%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs, bookings growth of +9.5%; guides Q2 revs in-line, expects bookings to remain stable sequentially
    Costco (COST 767.00, +3.59, +0.5%): reports April adjusted comparable sales growth of +5.5%
    Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 7.50, -0.30, -3.9%): misses by $0.20, misses on revs
    AppLovin (APP 83.80, +9.80, +13.2%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus
    Catalent (CTLT 55.65, -0.55, -1.0%): misses by $0.28, misses on revs
    Arm Holdings plc (ARM 97.15, -8.92, -8.4%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    US Foods (USFD 53.10, +0.72, +1.4%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Tapestry (TPR 38.16, -0.82, -2.1%): beats by $0.13, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
    Robinhood Markets (HOOD 18.75, +0.90, +5.0%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; provides FY24 outlook
    Beyond Meat (BYND 7.16, -1.05, -12.8%): misses by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus; reaffirms FY24 revs guidance


    Tesla (TSLA 173.70, -1.02, -0.6%): increasing job cuts in China amid slowing sales, according to Bloomberg


    For the week ending May 4, initial jobless claims increased by 22,000 to 231,000 (consensus), which is the highest count since last August. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 27 increased by 17,000 to 1.785 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is the jump in initial claims, which will be construed as a sign of softening in the labor market. That view, in turn, will be construed as a possible trigger for a Fed rate cut in coming months.

    Treasury yields turned lower in response.

    The 10-yr note yield moved from 4.52% to 4.48% immediately after the data. It sits at 4.50% now.


    Morning Market

    Dow 39231.79 +175.40 (0.45%)
    Nasdaq 16297.20 -5.56 (-0.03%)
    SP 500 5198.23 +10.56 (0.20%)
    10-yr Note -3/32 4.498
    NYSE Adv 1865 Dec 759 Vol 123 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2285 Dec 1615 Vol 1.2 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Real Estate, Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care
    Weak: Information Technology, Communication Services

    Moving the Market
    — Weakness in mega caps and chipmakers weighing on broader market
    — Drop in Treasury yields in response to weekly jobless claims report
    — Mixed responses to earnings news since yesterday’s close
    — S&P 500 testing 5,200

    On an energy related note, the S&P 500 sector is trading 1.1% higher today.


    The EIA reported the natural gas storage build in the U.S. last week came in less than expected with +79Bcf in storage with consensus a build of +85Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were +71Bcf, with a five-year average +81Bcf. The withdrawal season has ended with stocks at the highest level in years. As of April 26, natural gas inventories were up +20.4% y/y and were +34.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample natural gas supplies.

    Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead


    Dow 39,387.76 331.37 0.85%
    S&P 500 5,214.08 26.41 0.51%
    Nasdaq 16,346.26 43.51 0.27%
    VIX 12.74 -0.26 -2.00%
    Gold 2,351.00 28.70 1.24%
    Oil 79.59 0.60 0.76%



    Akamai Tech (AKAM 92.25, -10.21, -10.0%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; authorizes $2.0 bln repurchase program; Large social media customer is optimizing their business, negatively impacting FY24 Delivery revenue by estimated $40-$60 mln
    Natera (NTRA 114.84, +19.29, +20.2%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs above consensus
    Unity Software (U 23.60, -0.56, -2.6%): reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs
    Victoria’s Secret (VSCO 20.70, +2.10, +11.3%): sees Q2 EPS and revs above consensus


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4% (UNCH for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.3% (+2.6% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: UNCH (+1.6% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: +0.4% (-1.6% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.6% (+1.9% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.4% (+1.6% for the week).

    Developer names had a strong finish to the week amid hopes that relaxed restrictions on property purchases would lead to higher sales.

    March Household Spending 1.2% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 1.4%); -1.2% yr/yr (expected -2.3%; last -0.5%).
    March Current Account surplus JPY3.399 trln (expected surplus of JPY3.489 trln; last surplus of JPY2.644 trln).
    April Bank Lending 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.2%).
    April Economy Watchers Current Index 47.4 (expected 50.4; last 49.8)
    A former Bank of Japan official said that the next rate hike could be made between July and October.
    Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said that he expects wage growth to outpace last year’s increase.

    New Zealand
    April Business PMI 48.9 (last 47.1)

    Malaysia’s central bank left its policy rate at 3.00%.


    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 147.14, +4.35, +3.1%): reports April revs increased 59.6% yr/yr to NT$236.02 bln

    T-Mobile (TMUS 165.18, +0.50, +0.3%), Verizon (VZ 39.92, +0.13, +0.3%): higher after report yesterday that TMUS and VZ are in talks to purchase portions of US Cellular (USM), according to WSJ


    Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the week.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.9% (+3.1% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: +0.5% (+4.4% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.7% (+2.8% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: +0.7% (+3.6% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.0% (+3.2% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.7% (+2.5% week-to-date).
    International Consolidated Airlines reported strong results for Q1.

    The U.K. is on track to emerge from a technical recession after the flash reading of Q1 GDP showed growth.
    Q1 GDP 0.6% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last -0.3%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last -0.2%).
    Q1 Business Investment 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 1.9%; last 1.4%); -0.6% yr/yr (last 2.8%).
    March Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.0%); 0.5% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last 1.0%).
    March Manufacturing Production 0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.2%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 2.6%).
    March Construction Output -0.4% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -2.0%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last -2.0%).
    March trade deficit GBP13.97 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.50 bln; last deficit of GBP14.13 bln)

    March Industrial Production -0.5% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%); -3.5% yr/yr (last -3.3%).
    March Industrial Sales 2.0% m/m (last -3.2%); -1.7% yr/yr (last -3.9%)

    A survey conducted by the EU Chamber of Commerce showed that more than 500 European companies see their sentiment surrounding business with China as being at an all-time low.


    Novavax (NVAX 10.07, +5.60, +125.1%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; Announces co-exclusive licensing agreement with Sanofi to co-commercialize COVID-19 vaccine


    Dutch Bros (BROS 33.78, +0.98, +3.0%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen
    3M (MMM 98.65, +1.32, +1.4%): upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Apple (AAPL 184.84, +0.52, +0.3%): signs agreement with Samsung (SSNLF) for devices that are foldable, according to Digitimes
    Microsoft (MSFT 413.79, +1.47, +0.4%): to introduce mobile gaming store in July, according to Bloomberg

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