Traders Market Weekly: Consumers Along for The Ride

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    Japan’s Nikkei: +2.2%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.5%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.6%
    India’s Sensex: -0.3%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +2.0%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note. South Korea added more than a million jobs in January, representing the largest single-month increase in about 22 years. Speculation about more easing from the People’s Bank of China continued after the release of cooler than expected inflation figures for January. However, China Securities Journal speculated that loan prime rates will be kept steady in February.


    Separately, Roblox (RBLX 57.70, -15.60, -21.3%) has tumbled 21% in pre-market action after disappointing investors with its earnings report. The visceral reaction has pressured other metaverse stocks like Meta Platforms (FB 213.54, -7.46, -3.4%).


    NAHB Housing Market Index for February decreased to 82 ( consensus 83) from 83 in January.

    Business inventories increased 2.1% m/m in December ( consensus 2.1%) following a revised 1.5% increase (from 1.3%) in November.

    Total industrial production increased 1.4% m/m in January ( consensus 0.4%) following an unrevised 0.1% decline in December. The capacity utilization rate jumped to 77.6% ( consensus 76.8%) from an upwardly revised 76.6% (from 76.5%) in December.


    U.S. Treasuries have backed down from their opening highs, but they remain above their flat lines at this time. Treasuries reached session highs during the initial 45 minutes of the session, building on their early gains despite the release of a better than expected Retail Sales report for January. However, the market backpedaled from highs over the past 90 minutes, returning the 10-yr note to its opening level while the long bond has dipped below its starting mark. Equities trade in the red with the S&P 500 (-0.7%) outperforming the Nasdaq (-1.3%).

    2-yr: -1 bp to 1.56%
    3-yr: -2 bps to 1.78%
    5-yr: -2 bps to 1.92%
    10-yr: -1 bp to 2.04%
    30-yr: -1 bp to 2.36%


    Total industrial production increased 1.4% month-over-month in January ( consensus 0.4%) following an unrevised 0.1% decline in December. The capacity utilization rate jumped to 77.6% ( consensus 76.8%) from an upwardly revised 76.6% (from 76.5%) in December.
    The key takeaway from the report is that the increase was driven predominately by the output of utilities, which saw its largest increase (9.9%) in the history of the index, which dates back to 1972.
    Manufacturing output increased 0.2% after decreasing 0.1% in December. Motor vehicle assemblies decreased 1.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.35 million units.
    Mining production was up 1.0% after increasing 1.5% in December.
    The output of utilities surged 9.9%, after declining 1.8% in December, as significantly colder-than-normal temperatures increased demand for heating.
    Total industrial production was up 4.1% yr/yr. The capacity utilization rate of 77.6% was 1.9 percentage points below its long-run average.


    Total retail sales for January increased 3.8% month-over-month ( consensus 1.9%) following a downwardly revised 2.5% decline (from -1.9%) in December. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 3.3% month-over-month following a downwardly revised 2.8% decline (from -2.3%) in December. The effects of Omicron were apparent in the report, as evidenced by the 14.5% increase in nonstore retailer sales and the 0.9% decline in sales at food services and drinking places.
    Retail sales are not adjusted for price changes, so higher prices likely played a part in the strong increase; nonetheless, the key takeaway from the report is that it speaks to a consumer that is still willing and able to spend in spite of the inflation.
    Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales increased 5.7% after declining 1.6% in December.
    Furniture and home furnishing store sales surged 7.2% after declining 7.4% in December.
    Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales jumped 4.1% after increasing 1.2% in December.
    Gasoline station sales fell 1.3% after increasing 0.4% in December.
    General merchandise store sales rose 3.6% after declining 1.7% in December.


    Dow 34,934.27 -54.57 -0.16%
    S&P 500 4,475.01 3.94 0.09%
    Nasdaq 14,124.09 -15.66 -0.11%
    GlobalDow 4,233.27 16.53 0.39%
    Gold 1,871.60 15.40 0.83%
    Oil 90.43 -1.64 -1.78%

    CLOSING SONG dedicated to TRUMAN — who is so helpful in sharing breaking MKT news :)


    Market Updates

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -19.0
    10 yr Note: 2.017%
    USD/JPY: 115.16 -0.30
    EUR/USD: 1.1363 -0.0012
    Europe: FTSE: -0.7% DAX: +0.1% CAC: +0.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: +0.3% Shanghai: +0.1% Nikkei: -0.8%
    Gold (1887.70 +16.20) Silver (23.72 +0.12) Crude (91.58 -2.08)


    he global equity markets are mixed. US futures have retreated after closing near the session high on Wednesday. S&P Futures are down about 20 points to trade around the 4450 area. The market came back to test the zone of support created by the launch higher after the release of the FOMC minutes. The low print of 4435.75 was defended a couple times before the modest bounce. The high was established early in the session at 4474.75.

    In Asia, China picked up 0.1% while Japan slid 0.8%. The Shanghai had an uneventful day with the index straddling the neutral zone throughout. The activity led to the muted net change. In Japan, the Nikkei’s decline was paced by heavyweights. The Japanese benchmark saw stocks such as Toyota, SoftBank and Fast Retailing decline 1-2%.

    In Europe, the major bourses lack uniformity. There is divergence among stocks in specific sectors as well. Standard Chartered is down 5% after missing its fourth quarter forecasts. On the flip side, Commerzbank is up 6% after the German lender beat its fourth quarter expectations. The same can be said in the automotive space where Renault is down about 1% while peers Daimler and BMW are up nearly 2%.


    S&P 500 futures in-line with fair value; Nasdaq 100 futures 0.2% below fair value; DJIA futures 0.2% above fair value
    Key factors driving the futures market:

    U.S. says Russia added troops to Ukraine border; conflicting reports about skirmishes in eastern Ukraine raise concerns about potentially wider escalation

    Mixed response to earnings reports from NVIDIA (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Walmart (WMT)
    Festering concerns about policy response to inflation pressures
    DoorDash (DASH) surges 24% on impressive user growth and order activity
    CDC expected to change mask guidance soon
    FAA Administrator announces resignation


    Research calls of note:

    Upgrades: UPST, CRL, CHKP, ED, PKG, YUM
    Downgrades: MMM, PEGA, SHOP, CF, LDOS, NVDA


    U.S. Treasuries are on track for a higher start with longer tenors expected to pace the early advance after showing relative weakness yesterday. Treasury futures inched higher last evening, accelerating to highs shortly after the start of the Asian session. The rally followed reports of shelling in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine, which has weighed on sentiment even though this region has been a conflict area since 2014.

    The overnight spike was followed by a steady pullback that erased the bulk of last night’s advance, though Treasuries remain on course for a firmly higher start. Japan reported its widest trade deficit in eight years and raised its machine orders assessment to indicate that orders are picking up. The U.S. session will feature January Housing Starts/Building permits, which will be reported alongside the weekly jobless claims report. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% at 95.76.

    Yield Check:
    2-yr: -1 bp to 1.51%
    3-yr: -3 bps to 1.74%
    5-yr: -3 bps to 1.89%
    10-yr: -4 bps to 2.01%
    30-yr: -5 bps to 2.32%


    Dow 34,312.03 -622.24 -1.78%
    S&P 500 4,380.26 -94.75 -2.12%
    Nasdaq 13,716.72 -407.38 -2.88%
    GlobalDow 4,187.57 -43.35 -1.02%
    Gold 1,900.70 29.20 1.56%
    Oil 91.68 -1.98 -2.11%


    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +20.0
    10 yr Note: 1.968%
    USD/JPY: 115.18 +0.25
    EUR/USD: 1.1368 +0.0006
    Europe: FTSE: +0.3% DAX: 0.0% CAC: +0.4%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -1.9% Shanghai: +0.7% Nikkei: -0.4%
    Gold (1896.00 -6.00) Silver (23.90 +0.03) Crude (89.86 -1.91)

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