Traders Market Weekly: Bears Squeezed in Bonds, Stocks and Currencies

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    UPDATE – If Nevada holds “R” – SENATE will be at least 50-50 as Alaska will be an “R” … leaving a “D” 48 on final 2 states to be decided … If “D” side wins Georgia in DEC 6 runoff (favored) & “D” wins in Arizona (favored) we are back to 50-50 split & all the committee chairs hold … The HOUSE realistically will change hands once a few more races finally get called – “R” should have narrow # above the 50-50 split in House

    And saying a prayer for all our future leaders, regardless of party to work for good of American people
    and a BALANCED BUDGET is my #1 issue — that I never hear during entire season 😉 🙂


    I apologize slept in this AM – no point posting the Asian Markets with this massive rebound since CPI.

    A great review here 🙂

    Stocks Soar, Yields and Dollar Drop as US Core Inflation Eased off 40-Year Highs in October to 6.3% from 6.6%


    Dow +833.61 at 33350.58, Nasdaq +596.63 at 10889.66, S&P +157.98 at 3906.62

    There is a decidedly positive bias in the market today.

    Market participants are reacting to the cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which showed a welcome moderation in the year-over-year changes for total CPI (to 7.7% from 8.2%) and core CPI (to 6.3% from 6.6%).

    Price action in the currency and bond markets following the CPI report has also offered support to the stock market.

    The 10-yr Treasury note yield is down 29 basis points to 3.86% and the 2-yr note yield is down 31 basis points to 4.32%.

    The U.S. Dollar Index has plunged 1.7% to 108.65.

    The CPI report for October reignited the narratives that peak inflation may have been reached and that the Fed may be apt to soften its approach going forward.

    The latter point manifested itself in the fed funds futures market, which now sees an 85.4% probability of a 50-basis points rate hike in December (vs 56.8% yesterday) and a lower terminal rate of 4.75-5.00% by June (vs 5.00-5.25% yesterday).

    Aside from supportive price action from the dollar and Treasuries, short-covering activity has compounded today’s gains along with some fear of missing out on further gains.

    The broad rally effort brought the S&P 500 above its October high (3,905), which it’s fighting to defend currently. All 11 S&P 500 sectors are comfortably in the green led by real estate (+6.7%) and consumer discretionary (+6.6%). The consumer discretionary sector is bolstered by big moves in (AMZN 95.79, +9.65, +11.2%) and Tesla (TSLA 187.84, +10.22, +5.7%).

    The consumer staples (+0.9%) and health care (+1.0%) sectors exhibit the slimmest gains.

    Just about everything in the stock market, however, has risen with today’s CPI tide. Advancers lead decliners by a nearly 8-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a better than 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is up 5.5% and the Russell 3000 Value Index is up 3.6%.


    The key takeaway from the report isn’t singular. It is manifold:

    (1) The report helps validate the peak inflation view.
    (2) The report is apt to compel the Fed to take a less aggressive rate-hike approach at the December FOMC meeting.
    (3) Some encouragement will be borne out of the understanding that the shelter index (computed with a lag) contributed more than half of the monthly all items increase, suggesting price increases moderated in many other areas.


    Weekly Initial Claims 225K (consensus 220K); Prior was revised to 218K from 217K; Weekly
    Continuing Claims 1.493 mln; Prior was revised to 1.487 mln from 1.485 mln

    The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims are still running at low levels, yet the latest reading shows claims moving in a direction that has been deemed the right direction for tempering the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes.


    Dow 33,715.37 1,201.43 3.70%
    S&P 500 3,956.37 207.80 5.54%
    Nasdaq 11,114.15 760.97 7.35%
    VIX 23.52 -2.57 -9.85%
    Gold 1,758.80 45.10 2.63%
    Oil 86.25 0.42
    Bitcoin USD 17,934 2,146 13.59%
    Ethereum USD 1,325.84 220.03 19.90%

    and a NOV 10th ANNIV song that tells a story – and that disaster
    led to improved safety as the GALES oF NOVEMBER come clashing


    The solo albums by Jerry Garcia are rated among best
    as he was incredible musician & song writer
    as we celebrate great gains today in Blue Mtns. of SW Virginia

    and a bonus track for the “R” RED RIPPLE 😉 🙂


    Nicole has arrived in SW Virginia … lots of rain & some wind as remnants travel thru
    We’re about 20-30 miles on outer edge of tornado red zone – but they should be rare today
    Flooding & a few t-storms anticipated … as Bambi, pugs, and us “bunker” down


    Dow -55.11 at 33663.29, Nasdaq +138.94 at 11192.94, S&P +23.73 at 3980.17

    The bulls continue to show that they are aiming to remain in control of the market. The major indices are trading higher, quickly bouncing back from an early selling effort, despite a weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment report.

    FTX Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. That news has put the cryptocurrency market back on the defensive, but stocks so far are not giving in to any angst about a contagion effect.

    Follow-through gains in the mega-cap stocks, including Tesla (TSLA 192.95, +2.23, +1.2%), which has rebounded from early losses. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is up 1.5%, led by (AMZN 100.15, +3.52, +3.6%) and Microsoft (MSFT 246.07, +3.09, +1.3%).


    The preliminary reading for the November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 54.7 ( consensus 59.6) from the final reading of 59.9 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 67.4.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects concerns about higher interest rates, high prices, and elevated global uncertainty that appear to be adversely affecting sentiment across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation.


    Dow 33,747.86 32.49 0.10%
    S&P 500 3,992.93 36.56 0.92%
    Nasdaq 11,323.33 209.18 1.88%
    VIX 22.40 -1.13 -4.80%
    Gold 1,770.60 16.90 0.96%
    Oil 88.94 2.47 2.86%

    Hopefully last of 2022 hurricane season will be moving out soon
    those NOV rains are rough sometines
    and wish all VET’s a happy & blessed VETERANS DAY 🙂


    November 13-19, 2022 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Short Squ
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Bears Squeezed in Bonds, Stocks and Currencies]

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