Traders Market Weekly: Market Combustion, Short Squeeze Meets Fed Pivot

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 62 total)
  • Author
  • #68770

    The Consumer Price index increased 0.1% month-over-month in November (consensus 0.0%) while the core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month, as expected. That left the Consumer Price Index up 3.1% year-over-year, versus 3.2% in October, and the core Consumer Price Index up 4.0% year-over-year, unchanged from October.

    The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that core CPI was “sticky,” largely because the shelter index (+0.4%) continues to be sticky. That should continue to give the Fed some pause about cutting rates anytime soon; and it may very well keep the Fed vocalizing the idea that it could possibly raise rates again if progress in fighting inflation stalls.

    The 2-yr note yield, at 4.68% just before the data, sits at 4.70% now after hitting 4.74% immediately following the release.
    The 10-yr, at 4.18% before the report, jumped to 4.23% immediately after the release and sits at 4.22% now.

    Consumer Inflation Remains Sticky in November as Shelter Price Rises offset Gasoline Price Falls


    Market Early Morning
    Dow 36488.11 +83.18 (0.23%)
    Nasdaq 14442.13 +9.65 (0.07%)
    SP 500 4623.83 +1.39 (0.03%)
    10-yr Note +1/32 4.226
    NYSE Adv 1085 Dec 1562 Vol 139 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 1575 Dec 2371 Vol 1.4 bln

    Strong: Materials, Industrials, Financials, Consumer Staples
    Weak: Energy, Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate

    Moving the Market
    — Reacting to a relatively disappointing November CPI report

    — Treasury yields moving higher in response to the inflation data

    — Gains in some mega cap stocks acting as support for the major indices

    — Ongoing consolidation after the big run off late-October lows

    Semiconductor stocks outperform; small and mid caps lag

    The three major indices found some upside momentum recently, partially driven by mega cap gains. NVIDIA (NVDA 470.18, +3.83, +0.8%), (AMZN 145.95, +0.04, +0.1%), and Meta Platforms (META 330.17, +4.87, +1.5%) are all standout winners.

    Semiconductor stocks are also showing relative strength so far. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 0.3%.

    Elsewhere, small and mid cap stocks are lagging relative to their larger peers. The Russell 2000 is down 0.4% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 is down 0.3%.


    and inflation even hitting equity prices – lol
    Inflation was up only 1/10th of % month-to-month … and FOMC is likely to close on good note at year end
    REDWOODS don’t grow to top of sky – so after some early JAN-2024 inflow — it may be a good time to park some/all profits to FIXED MM accounts in 401k (for future buying opps)


    Dow 36,577.94 173.01 0.48%
    S&P 500 4,643.70 21.26 0.46%
    Nasdaq 14,533.40 100.91 0.70%
    VIX 12.01 -0.62 -4.91%
    Gold 1,995.00 1.30 0.07%
    Oil 68.79 -2.53 -3.55%


    Pfizer (PFE) announces changes to its commercial operations following previously announced Seagen (SGEN) acquisition…

    PFE up 0.2%


    Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) reports that one of its facilities in Kansas tested positive for Avian influenza, affecting approximately 684,000 laying hens…

    CALM down 0.2%


    Vermilion Energy (VET) announces its 2024 budget and updated return of capital framework; increases quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.12 CDN/share…

    VET up 1.5%


    FOMC keeps current INTEREST RATES with no increases for now
    Equities continue in the SANTA RALLY with slight upticks after meeting just ended
    The DOVES at the FOMC & WALL STREET are soaring higher 🙂


    new WALL STREET records are being set with SANTA RALLY
    FOMC was a little more DOVISH – but with warning that if MEASURES CHANGE
    there could be a RATE INCREASE or two in 2024 if anything gets out-of-bounds on inflation


    WOW —- DOW 37,000


    Dow 37,090.24 512.30 1.40%
    S&P 500 4,707.09 63.39 1.37%
    Nasdaq 14,733.96 200.57 1.38%
    VIX 12.24 0.17 1.41%
    Gold 2,036.20 43.00 2.16%
    Oil 69.77 1.16 1.69%

    WOW- SUPER GREEN FINISH & celebrating with FAV Christmas song all time 🙂


    Dow 37,248.35 158.11 0.43%
    S&P 500 4,719.55 12.46 0.26%
    Nasdaq 14,761.56 27.59 0.19%
    VIX 12.40 0.21 1.72%
    Gold 2,050.80 53.50 2.68%
    Oil 71.68 2.21 3.18%
    Bitcoin 43,005

    Like the great DUTCH TULIP BULBS of 1637 — equites continue to grow higher in value – lol 🙂


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher on Friday, closing out a winning week in most cases.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.9% (+2.1% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.6% (+3.0% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.6% (-0.9% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: +1.4% (+2.4% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.8% (+1.8% for the week),
    Australia’s All Ordinaries: +0.8% (+3.5% for the week)


    Friday’s action followed a slate of data that included weaker-than-expected retail sales, fixed asset investment, and house prices, and better-than-expected industrial production for November.

    November Retail Sales 10.1% yr/yr (expected 12.5%; last 7.6%);
    November Industrial Production 6.6% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 4.6%);
    November Fixed Asset Investment 2.9% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.9%);
    November House Prices -0.2% yr/yr (last -0.1%);
    November Unemployment Rate 5.0% (expected 5.0%; last 5.0%)ervices PMI 47.6 (last 46.0)

    The PBOC made a record monthly net liquidity injection of CNY800 billion and left its 1-yr medium-term lending facility unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
    Reuters also reported that China will be targeting a 2024 budget deficit that is 3% of GDP, down from 3.8% in 2023, but would issue special bonds if more fiscal support is needed. The GDP growth rate target will be around 5%.
    China reportedly trimmed the down payment requirement for first-time home buyers to 30% from 35-40%.


    Preliminary December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 47.7 (expected 48.2; last 48.3)
    Jibun Bank Services PMI 52.0 (last 50.8);

    Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said market moves are being closely watched but will not comment on market speculation.
    The yen continued to strengthen against the dollar ahead of next week’s BOJ meeting. USD/JPY -0.1% to 141.74 after scraping 145.99 on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC decision.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 62 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.