Traders Market Weekly: Bank Runs, Apple, Fed and Jobs

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    European Central Bank policymaker Wunsch said that a terminal rate of 4.0% could easily be reached while policymaker Stournaras said that rates are close to their peak.

    EU Council President Michel said that the European Council will discuss policy on relations with China in June.


    Standard & Poor’s revised the U.K.’s outlook to Stable from Negative.


    Coca-Cola (KO 64.90, +0.85, +1.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance
    Philips (PHG 21.39, +2.36, +12.4%): beats by €0.14, beats on revs; reaffirms outlook

    Medtronic (MDT 86.91, +1.18, +1.4%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
    First Solar (FSLR 211.58, -5.31, -2.5%): downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
    Reviewing overnight developments

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 163.29, +0.60, 0.4%): to begin IPO roadshow of consumer healthcare unit


    The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 8 points and are trading slightly below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 30 points and are trading slightly below fair value.


    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the House will vote on a debt ceiling bill this week and he believes it will pass the chamber, according to Reuters. This bill will be dead on arrival in the Senate due to Democratic opposition.

    Many GOP lawmakers are prepared to let a default happen, according to the Washington Post.


    Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 0.42% to $77.56/bbl and natural gas futures are down 2.1% to $2.19/mmbtu.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 101.66.


    Treasury yields are moving lower.

    The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.15% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.53%.
    The U.S. Dollar Index also took a turn lower recently, down 0.3% to 101.49.


    Dow +32.01 at 33840.88, Nasdaq -14.62 at 12057.82, S&P +3.45 at 4138.24

    The stock market opened somewhat positive, but little changed as investors await a big week of earnings. The main indices are clinging to their flat lines so far.

    Most of the 11 S&P 500 sectors trade up led by energy (+0.8%), health care (+0.4%), and consumer staples (+0.3%).
    The real estate (-0.5%), information technology (-0.3%), and utilities (-0.2%) sectors are the worst performers so far.


    Early Bonds: U.S. Treasuries in the belly maintaining early strength.

    10-yr yield back to 200dma 3.530%, 30-yr yield below 50 Dma (3.773%)

    2-yr -2 bps to 4.14%
    3-yr -6 bps to 3.84%
    5-yr -4 bps to 3.62%
    10-yr -4 bps to 3.53%
    30-yr -4 bps to 3.74%

    Participant cut to underperform by Wolfe Research, stock AI stock fell more than 5% on Monday

    Wolfe Research downgraded the enterprise software company, citing concerns about spending.

    Analyst Joshua Tilton lowered his rating on (AI) to underperform from peer perform, while setting a per-share price target of $14, noting that there are “significant risks” to fiscal 2024 revenue growth, as spending budgets are likely to be impacted by a “negative macro outlook.”

    Additionally, Tilton noted that companies are continuing to consolidate their spending on software, “which in our view, threatens the uptake of’s newly introduced consumption model.”

    Led by CEO Thomas Siebel, (AI) shares have gained more than 80% year-to-date and were up more than 200% earlier this month.

    Other artificial intelligence-linked stocks were mixed following Tilton’s (AI) downgrade, as SoundHound AI (SOUN) traded higher, while (BBAI) slipped.


    Walmart, Wayfair expected beneficiaries from Bed Bath & Beyond bankruptcy

    Oppenheimer told clients it is “hard-pressed to envision a buyer stepping up” in the near term. As such, liquidation “should not come as a surprise to investors.” Given this likely scenario, the remaining market share held by the beleaguered Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) -23.06%, which notched about $5.3B in sales in the past year, could soon boost competitors.

    “We do expect that certain chains could ultimately capitalize, somewhat upon a market share shift away from BBBY, including: [Williams-Sonoma] (WSM), [Lovesac] (LOVE), and [Wayfair] (NYSE:W), within our Consumer Growth & eCommerce universe. Moreover, the ultimate closure of BBBY stores should further weaken an already upended retail real estate backdrop, implying the potential for even more compelling new unit growth opportunities for still expanding chains such as Five Below (FIVE).”

    Bank of America echoed the potential for Wayfair (W) and also called out Overstock (OSTK).

    “Over the past five years US home furnishings market share has consolidated to the largest brands including Amazon (AMZN), Target (TGT), (NYSE:WMT) & Wayfair,” the bank’s analysts advised clients. “Wayfair and Overstock could see modest revenue upside from the Bed Bath bankruptcy but we see minimal benefit to Arhaus (ARHS) & RH (RH).”

    Piper Sandler homed in on industry giants as the most likely to continue eating up the market share left behind by Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY).

    “We believe that we are entering a new phase of retail industry consolidation and that Target and Walmart will be long-term share beneficiaries,” equity analysts Edward Yruma and Abbie Zvejnieks wrote. “Similar to the Toys “R” Us/KRU bankruptcy in 2017, we think that share gains will largely go to TGT, WMT, and AMZN. Investments in store pickup, store experience, and e-comm are driving share gains at both TGT and WMT, and we expect these to accelerate as we enter a new phase of retail consolidation.”

    The two added that Target (TGT) is particularly well-positioned to pick up market share in home furnishings as well as baby products, a bright spot for Bed Bath & Beyond in recent years due to the success of its Buy Buy Baby business.

    Swedish home furnishings giant IKEA. The retailer plans to open 17 new locations and invest billions in the US market in the coming years.


    Dow 33,875.92 66.96 0.20%
    S&P 500 4,137.13 3.61 0.09%
    Nasdaq 12,037.20 -35.25 -0.29%
    VIX 16.83 0.06 0.36%
    Gold 1,998.70 8.20 0.41%
    Oil 78.75 0.88 1.13%

    And an EARTH DAY 2023 special album of celebration 🙂


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note while markets in Australia and New Zealand were closed for ANZAC Day.

    –Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.1%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.7%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3%
    India’s Sensex: +0.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.4%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: CLOSED


    Japan’s cabinet office maintained the overall economic assessment of the Japanese economy and raised the view on imports.

    Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said that “there may be” movements in Japan’s monetary policy in the future.

    Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%) and March BoJ Core CPI 2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.7%)


    Tech stocks in South Korea were pressured after the country’s financial supervisory service head expressed concern about investment based on excessive leverage.

    South Korea’s Q1 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%); 0.8% yr/yr (expected 0.9%; last 1.3%)

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