Traders Market Weekly: When Logic Hits You in The Face

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 70 total)
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  • #38706

    2-yr note yield -11 bps to 3.33%; 10-yr note yield –10 bps to 3.38%


    Key factors driving the futures market:

    ECB holding emergency meeting to discuss fragmentation issues (pertaining to sovereign debt spreads). Some see this as another “whatever it takes” moment.
    Expectations that stock market is poised for a rebound effort given the magnitude of recent losses (S&P 500 down 10.4% from intraday high last Monday).
    China reported better-than-feared Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment data for May.

    President Biden sends letter to top oil companies, noting unprecedented refining profit margins are unacceptable and that his administration will take reasonable steps to improve output in the near term, according to Bloomberg
    Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure

    Bitcoin -4.4% to $21,185.80; Ethereum -7.1% to $1114.44


    RETAIL SALES fall to -0.3% v. +0.1 expected … Record Gas + INFLATION curbed purchases
    this may be further signal we are in RECESSION to Q2 (or at least near there)
    that may also tie hands of FED from being too aggressive in taking away the “PUNCHBOWL”
    Even BITCOIN kryptonite has rallied from near $20,000 back to $21,000
    and we shall see during early afternoon announcement today


    Ohhhhh the humanity … 75 BPS & rally time on WALL STREET — as FED did what they saw as needful
    even though USA itself must pay higher interest rates as nation
    Just hoping this was more of a GOLDILOCKS move rather than one that CRASHES economy
    The stronger $$$ is lowering OIL prices at least for today as “+” side effect

    Clinton was the last POTUS who balanced a budget & earlier ones did even better
    Our nation should NOT be a “prisoner of debt” as the good book teaches 🙂


    Dow 30,668.53 303.70 1.00%
    S&P 500 3,789.99 54.51 1.46%
    Nasdaq 11,099.15 270.81 2.50%
    GlobalDow 3,595.80 33.56 0.94%
    Gold 1,837.50 24.00 1.32%
    Oil 115.90 -3.03

    BONUS – at age 75 EDGAR is still going strong — one of best all time on MOOG, drums, SAX, etc 🙂


    Good Thursday morning to all – from the deer & BEAR infested mtns of SW VA 🙂

    and if FED is aggressive but stops in JUL or SEP meetings ahead — that might help cap things
    Media, Wall Street, and GOVT are blind to the real pain on MAIN STREET with $5 gas & 8% inflation
    We’ll soon be at “29” handle for DOW – as only major good news will make things return back (like end of war)


    The global equity markets are under heavy pressure. The S&P Futures are down well over 2% and trading around the 3708 area. An overnight meltdown occurred after yesterday’s late-day bid failed be maintained. The market pressed up to a high of 3833.25 early in the session. Sellers soon took control and have not relinquished. Spoos are sitting just off the low of 3695.00.

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -84.0
    10 yr Note: 3.444%
    USD/JPY: 132.94 -0.89
    EUR/USD: 1.0420 -0.0026
    Europe: FTSE: -2.0% DAX: -2.7% CAC: -2.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -2.2% Shanghai: -0.6% Nikkei: +0.4%
    Gold (1834.80 +15.20) Silver (21.61 +0.19) Crude (115.00 -0.31)


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -2.2%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.6%
    India’s Sensex: -2.0%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH


    Japan reported its widest trade deficit since January 2014. The Bank of Japan is meeting today and tomorrow, but it is not expected to make any policy changes.
    Australia’s MI inflation expectations increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May, representing the highest increase since the series began in 2008.
    South Korea’s President Yoon said that the economy is facing a “very grave” situation.

    China’s May Home Prices -0.1% yr/yr (last 0.7%)
    Japan’s May trade deficit JPY2.38 trln (expected deficit of JPY2.02 trln; last deficit of JPY842.8 bln)
    South Korea’s May Import Price Index 36.3% yr/yr (last 35.0%) and Export Price Index 23.5% yr/yr (last 21.4%)
    Australia’s May Employment Change 60,600 (expected 25,000; last 4,500) and full employment change 69,400 (last 93,300). May Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.8%; last 3.9%) and May Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 66.4%; last 66.4%). MI Inflation Expectations 6.7% (last 5.0%)
    New Zealand’s Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 3.0%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last 3.1%)


    Major European indices trade sharply lower across the board.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.9%
    Germany’s DAX: -2.7%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -2.6%
    France’s CAC 40: -2.1%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -2.6%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.2%


    Eurozone’s Q1 wages 2.7% yr/yr (last 1.5%) and labor cost index 3.2% yr/yr (last 1.9%)
    Italy’s May CPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -0.1%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.9%; last 6.0%)
    Spain’s April trade deficit EUR6.40 bln (last deficit of EUR4.60 bln)


    Tesla (TSLA 667.69, -31.31, -4.5%): Reuters reports that company has raised its prices across its entire vehicle lineup
    Commercial Metals Company (CMC 37.68, +0.41, +1.1%): beats by $0.76, beats on revs; says robust demand for each of CMC’s major product lines is expected to persist, augmented by growing downstream backlog and solid levels of new work entering the project pipeline.
    KLA-Tencor (KLAC 319.15, -4.64, -1.4%): reaffirms Q4 guidance; announces $6 bln share repurchase program and dividend raise at Investor Day


    The S&P 500 futures are 1.9% below fair value; Nasdaq 100 futures are 2.5% below fair value; and DJIA futures are 1.5% below fair value

    Key factors driving the futures market:

    Multiple central banks — Fed, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Brazil — raise their key lending rate
    Swiss National Bank surprised with a 50 bps increase, its first rate hike in 15 years
    Concerns about economic and earnings growth prospects
    Disappointment over inability to build on yesterday’s gains
    Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates no growth in real GDP in Q2 versus prior forecast for 0.9% growth
    Japan posts its biggest trade deficit in eight years
    Samsung Electronics temporarily halts procurement orders and seeks shipment delays from suppliers due to excess inventories, according to Nikkei
    Tesla (TSLA) raising prices across entire vehicle lineup, according to Reuters
    Revlon (REV) files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection


    Brokerage research calls of note:

    Upgrades: ACAD, AZO, BA, DG, RSG
    Downgrades: DD, SJM, PHG, SBH, SAFM, WSO


    -700 on DOW & “29” handle for 1st time in over a year … 29,878.20 is LOW so far
    as reality is setting in on inflation, supply chain issues, $5 gas — it may slow us down to a RECESSION
    OIL is also falling from $120 to $112 as demand is falling some with many only driving on needful basis

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 70 total)
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