Traders Market Weekly: Jobs and Central Bankers

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 63 total)
  • Author
  • #40778

    Dividend watch:

    Brazilian oil producer Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) could announce dividends of between $10B to $14B relative to its second-quarter results when it reports on July 28, according to Credit Suisse. That huge payout would represent a dividend yield of up to 20% in a single quarter.

    Some other quarterly dividend payout predictions include hikes from Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) to $0.30 from $0.25, Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING) to $0.20 from $0.17, OFG Bancorp (OFG) to $0.17 from $0.15, Cintas (NASDAQ:CTAS) to $1.07 from $0.95, and Marathon Oil (MRO) to $0.09 from $0.08.


    Barron’s mentions:

    Amazon (AMZN) makes the cover this week just ahead of the e-commerce giant’s earnings report. The bullish points laid out on Amazon include an advertising business that has annualized revenue of close to $40B, which is nearly four times the size of Twitter (TWTR) and Snap (SNAP) combined. Amazon is also said to have turned into a media powerhouse with the weekly NFL rights to a key night, as well as a growing logistics powerhouse that increasingly rivals FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS). Of course, there is also the AWS business that accounts for 16% of the company’s sales and more than 100% of its profit to offset the money-losing businesses. Redburn Research analyst Alex Haissl made the case that AWS is now the strongest cloud provider overall, with a platform that includes raw data storage, database software, applications, and analytics. That makes a potential AWS spinoff down the road an enticing reason to buy Amazon now with shares down more than 30% YTD.


    Short squeeze candidates:

    S3 Partners published a list of the crowded short trades based on factors like total short dollars at risk, short interest as a true percentage of a company’s tradable float, stock loan liquidity, and trading liquidity.

    Based on the firm’s proprietary scoring method, the stocks most at risk of seeing a short squeeze include Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (NASDAQ:FFIE), Canoo (GOEV) Gossamer Bio (GOSS), Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Lightwave Logic (NASDAQ:LWLG), Beam Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BEAM), Cowen Group (NASDAQ:COWN), Veru (VERU), Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND), and Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Rocket Companies (RKT), Dutch Bros. (NYSE:BROS), Fisker (FSR), Marathon Digital (MARA), GameStop (GME), and Lucid Group (LCID). The stocks in the crowded short list all have incurred double-digit percentage mark-to-market losses over the last 30 days coupled with mark-to-market losses over the last seven days.


    Back to school breakdown:

    The spending outlook for the back-to-school season looks more muted this year as indicated by a proprietary survey run by research firm Gordon Haskett. The firm said 37% of respondents plan to spend more on back-to-school items than a year ago versus 52% a year ago with gas and food inflation impacting household spending sentiment.

    Apparel and school supplies are expected to see the largest category bumps and electronics is seen lagging. Dollar stores and off-price retailers are forecast to see the largest uptick as prime BTS shopping destinations. Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Macy’s (M) were singled by the firm as two retail chains with a notable increase in consumer interest within the spending survey.


    ^^^^ WOW & +1s on lots of great market insightss
    Indeed a WILD Week on the streets this week
    WED = FED to raise interest rates
    THU = 2nd QTR GDP estimate – are we in a recession with 2nd possible “-” QTR?


    The euro and German stock markets slumped after Russia’s Gazprom further curbed natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline

    By cutting the pipeline from about 25% to 20% of capacity it means Germany will not have enough gas to supply its country this winter without cutting back demand. Gas market watchers say it will mean Berlin will have to invoke emergency programs that currently put the burden on industry to cut back first.

    There is a widespread belief in markets that Russia is going to use natural gas as a key tool to achieve its aims in Ukraine.


    Retail stocks and indices all took a dump after Walmart $WMT warned for Q2 and FY23
    Q2 net sales growth 7.5%, FY sales growth 4.5%
    Big Forex Affect $1 billion in Q2 & $1.8 billion in H2
    $AMZN $DLTR $BBY $M $HD $LULU $TGT all lower


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.2%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.7%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.8%,
    India’s Sensex: -0.9%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.4%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.


    Japan’s June Corporate Services Price Index 2.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%) and June BoJ Core CPI 1.6% yr/yr (last 1.5%)
    South Korea’s Q2 GDP 0.7% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); 2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 3.0%)
    Singapore’s June Industrial Production -8.5% m/m (expected -6.3%; last 9.2%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 10.4%)
    Developer stocks in China outperformed after the recent announcement of a government real estate fund.
    The Bank of Japan’s policy minutes from the June meeting showed an agreement to support the Japanese economy, which is being pressured by rising commodity prices.
    South Korea’s finance minister expects inflation to peak in September or October.


    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.9%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.6%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.5%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.9%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.4%.


    U.K.’s June CBI Distributive Trades Survey -4 (last -5)
    Spain’s June PPI 43.2% yr/yr (last 43.6%)
    Germany’s economy ministry denied speculation about the third level of a gas emergency being triggered by the recent reduction of supply from Russia.
    The EU’s energy ministers agreed to voluntary gas demand cuts with several exceptions.
    Consumers in the U.K. have reportedly reoriented their spending toward less expensive stores.


    Walmart (WMT 119.89, -12.13, -9.2%): lowers profit outlook for Q2 (Jul) and FY23 (Jan); guides Q2 and FY23 revs above consensus, elevated by inflation; reiterates US comps, excluding fuel, of about +3% in 2H23; guides Q2 adjusted EPS below consensus; trims its FY23 adjusted EPS outlook
    General Motors (GM 33.94, -0.58, -1.7%): misses by $0.18, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS and EBIT guidance
    Coca-Cola (KO 62.99, +0.80, +1.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line
    3M (MMM 142.11, +7.99, +6.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; lowers outlook
    McDonald’s (MCD 250.25, -0.13, -0.1%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs
    UPS (UPS 184.25, -3.66, -2.0%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance, raises targeted share repurchases to $3 bln for 2022
    F5 Networks (FFIV 166.07, +11.66, +7.6%): beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; announces an additional $1 bln for its share repurchase program
    Alibaba (BABA 105.03, +3.97, +3.9%): pursues primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
    Whirlpool (WHR 167.01, +2.36, +1.4%): beats by $0.65, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus


    President Biden said he expects to speak with Chinese President Xi this week, but noted that no meeting is set up yet.
    On a related note, The New York Times reports that the Biden administration has concerns that China could take some potential action in Taiwan in the next 18 months.


    May FHFA Housing Price Index rose 1.4% versus the prior revised increase of 1.5% (from 1.6%).
    The May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 20.5% year-over-year ( consensus 20.8%) versus the prior increase of 21.2%.


    PPPPPLLLLUUUUNNNNGGGGEEEEEE …. Market indexes will some minor losses around 1%
    in the “WOK” + District of CRIME dictionary — we can redefine RECESSION
    as not being 2 QTR of ‘-‘ growth based on latest 2022 definitions – lol

    As the “voice of an angel” sang in 1999 in one of my FAV songs 🙂

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 63 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.