Traders Market Weekly: Neutralizing Contagion

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    BoE Hike 25 bps 7-2 vote split

    The Bank of England raised interest rates by a further quarter of a percentage point on Thursday and said it expects the surge in British inflation to cool faster than before, despite a surprise jump in price growth announced on Wednesday.

    Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country’s slow pace of economic growth, the BoE’s nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%.


    Kansas City Fed March manufacturing index +3 vs -9 prior

    – Composite index unchanged at 0
    – Going in a different direct to other US manufacturing data lately – however is seen as a minor manufacturing PMI


    Tenth District manufacturing activity Special Questions

    This month contacts were asked special questions about profit margins and changing prices. In March, given current price pressures, 56% of firms reported a decrease in profit margins since the beginning of the year, while 26% of firms reported no change, and 18% of firms reported an increase (Chart 2). Compared to last year, 47% of firms reported changing prices more often, 28% of firms reported no change, and 24% reported changing prices less often (Chart 3).

    Selected Manufacturing Comments
    “For us in our little corner of the world inflation is still a huge issue. Some commodities are leveling off – but some are still very high and projected to go higher. Freight seems better. Access to labor is a little better. We will have to continue to appropriately raise prices throughout the year to try and build back profit margins.”

    “Salaries and benefits have increased significantly over the past two years. Price increases have offset that. We need demand to stay strong, so prices stay in place. Increased capacity is being built internationally, which will impact demand in the long term.”

    “Supply chain and labor costs are our biggest concerns.”

    “Material and equipment availability is not getting better. I thought it would by now, but it’s not. Not sure when that will change…if ever.”

    “The two most common issues are related to supply chains from importing from China, delays, or supply and tightness of labor.”

    “We are beginning to see some relief in the base commodity inputs – soybean oil, eggs, cardboard, etc. are starting to come down.”


    Yellen changes opening remarks today from Senate yesterday – recall she sent $ES_F #NDX sharply lower

    Yellen: We’re not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance

    To Yellen: “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted”


    Dow 32,105.25 75.14 0.23%
    S&P 500 3,948.72 11.75 0.30%
    Nasdaq 11,787.40 117.44 1.01%
    VIX 22.44 0.18 0.81%
    Gold 2,001.10 51.50 2.64%
    Oil 69.26 -1.64 -2.31%
    BITCOIN 28,238


    YETI Holdings realigning its commercial and sales organizations; eliminates Senior VP of Sales position
    YETI down 2.0%


    Earnings After Close:

    Oxford Industries (OXM) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides AprQ EPS below consensus, revs above estimate; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; increases quarterly dividend 18% to $0.65/shared
    OXM down 6.7%

    Scholastic Corp (SCHL) reports Q3 (Feb) results; revs fell 6% yr/yr to $324.9 mln due to short-term headwinds globally; slashes FY23 revenue growth forecast to +4% from +8-10%, reduces FY23 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $20 mln; authorizes additional $50 mln for share repurchases
    SCHL down 10.7%

    Torrid (CURV) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus
    CURV up 14.8%


    UBS AG (UBS) and Credit Suisse (CS) both slipping in after-hours trading on report that they are among banks facing DOJ Russia-sanctions probe, according to Bloomberg… no indication for UBS; CS down 0.2%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.1% (+0.2% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.7% (+2.0% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.6% (+0.5% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: -0.7% (-0.8% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.4% (+0.8% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (-0.7% for the week).


    Australia’s Manufacturing PMI fell into contractionary territory for the first time in 35 months in the flash reading for March.

    Australia’s flash March Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (last 50.5) and flash Services PMI 48.2 (last 50.7)


    Japan’s February National CPI -0.6% m/m (last 0.4%); 3.3% yr/yr (last 4.3%).
    February National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.2%).

    Flash March Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (expected 48.2; last 47.7) and flash Services PMI 54.2 (last 54.0)
    Japan’s Manufacturing PMI has remained below 50.0 for the fifth month in a row.


    Singapore’s February Industrial Production -11.7% m/m (expected 0.7%; last -0.4%); -8.9% yr/yr (expected -1.9%; last -3.1%)


    Chinese officials have reportedly begun stress testing securities firms.


    South Korea’s Finance Minister Choo spoke about increasing the number of flights between South Korea and Japan.


    Major European indices trade in the red.

    STOXX Europe 600: -2.0% (+0.3% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: -2.2% (+0.7% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -2.0% (+0.2% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: -2.2% (+0.8% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -2.5% (+1.3% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -2.5% (+0.1% week-to-date).

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