Traders Market Weekly: Jobs, Inflation and PMI Pressures

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 63 total)
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  • #42524
    Truman
    Participant

    Asia-Pacific region
    Japan’s July Corporate Services Price Index 2.1% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 2.1%)
    South Korea’s July PPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.6%); 9.2% yr/yr (last 10.0%)
    Hong Kong’s July trade deficit HKD27.60 bln. July Imports -9.9% m/m (last 0.5%) and Exports -8.9% m/m (last -6.4%)
    New Zealand’s Q2 Retail Sales -2.3% qtr/qtr (expected 1.7%; last -0.9%)
    Trading at the Hong Kong Exchange was suspended for the first part of the day due to a typhoon.
    Japan’s cabinet office maintained its overall economic assessment for August but raised its view of factory production and public investment.
    The Bank of Korea raised its base rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, as expected. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee said that the base rate is currently in the middle of the neutral range and it should hit the upper end of that range if hot inflation persists.

    #42525
    Truman
    Participant

    Europe
    Germany’s Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.5%). August ifo Business Climate Index 88.5 (expected 86.8; last 88.7). August Current Assessment 97.5 (expected 96.0; last 97.7) and Business Expectations 80.3 (expected 79.0; last 80.4)
    U.K.’s August CBI Distributive Trades Survey 37 (expected -7; last -4)
    France’s August Business Survey 104, as expected (last 106)
    Spain’s July PPI 40.4% yr/yr (last 43.1%)
    Germany’s Q2 GDP was revised higher by ten basis points after the flash reading showed no growth.
    Germany’s economy ministry warned that it sees future problems with the supply of coal for power plants and the supply of oil for the eastern part of the country. Economists from Germany’s ifo Institute warned that the risk of recession remains present, though supply chain bottlenecks eased in August.
    Norwegian Air reported a decrease in profit for Q2 and warned that high fuel prices will impact results for the year.

    #42526
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 123 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

    Futures are indicating a higher open after some better-than-expected earnings reports from technology companies. Salesforce Inc (CRM) and NVIDIA (NVDA), though, disappointed with guidance.

    Tesla (TSLA) is providing some underlying support, as its shares move up with a 3-for-1 stock split that takes effect today.

    #42527
    Truman
    Participant

    Treasury yields are little changed this morning.

    The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.09% while the 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.37%.

    Atlanta Fed President Bostic (not an FOMC voter) said he’s not sure the U.S. has reached peak inflation
    Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) said more work needs to be done on inflation.

    WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $95.13/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 0.2% to $9.35/mmbtu.

    #42545

    JACKSON HOLE – WYOMING = center of the financial universe
    with $500B more FED PORK added to budget with the controversial student loan forgiveness
    that only those who are in DEBT like – lol
    All EYES are watching the FOMC skies for a smoke signal of higher rates 😉 🙂

    #42546

    Dow 33,291.78 322.55 0.98%
    S&P 500 4,199.12 58.35 1.41%
    Nasdaq 12,639.27 207.74 1.67%
    GlobalDow 3,677.97 34.72 0.95%
    Gold 1,770.80 9.30 0.53%
    Oil 93.10 -1.79 -1.89

    #42558
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    After-Hours:

    Affirm (AFRM) reports Q4 (Jun) results, beats on revs, GMV increased 77% yr/yr; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus… AFRM down 13.7%
    Dell (DELL) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line… DELL down 8.4%
    Elastic (ESTC) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; also names AWS exec as chief product officer… ESTC down 4.6%
    Farfetch (FTCH) beats by $0.04, beats on revs… FTCH up 8.6%
    Gap (GPS) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line, comps of -10%; withdraws prior FY23 guidance… GPS up 9.3%
    Marvell (MRVL) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line… MRVL down 2.5%
    Micro Focus (MFGP) to be acquired by OpenText at a price of 532 pence per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately $6.0 billion… MFGP up 85.6%
    Ulta Beauty (ULTA) beats by $0.71, beats on revs, comps of +14.4%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises FY23 comp guidance… ULTA up 2.9%
    Workday (WDAY) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 subscription revs… WDAY up 11.8%

    #42559
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    #BREAKING Micro Focus one of the world’s largest enterprise software providers to be acquired by OpenText at price of 532 pence per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately $6.0 billion
    $MFGP up 98.3%

    Recommended acquisition of Micro Focus International plc by Open Text Corporation
    to create one of the largest global customer bases and broadest solution suites in enterprise software

    https://www.enabling-transformation.com/

    “We are pleased to announce our firm intention to acquire Micro Focus, and I look forward to welcoming Micro Focus customers, partners and employees to OpenText.

    Upon completion of the acquisition, OpenText will be one of the world’s largest software and cloud businesses with a tremendous marquee customer base, global scale and comprehensive go-to-market. Customers of OpenText and Micro Focus will benefit from a partner that can even more effectively help them accelerate their digital transformation efforts by unlocking the full value of their information assets and core systems.”

    Mark J. Barrenechea,
    CEO of OpenText

    “I am pleased to be recommending OpenText’s offer to our shareholders.

    The premium offered demonstrates the significant progress we have made transforming the business. OpenText not only shares our values but will offer new opportunities for both our customers and employees. On behalf of the Board I would like to thank Stephen and his team for their hard work and continued contribution to the success of the group.”

    Greg Lock
    Chairman of Micro Focus

    #42573
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.6% (-1.0% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.0% (+2.0% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (-0.7% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: +0.1% (-1.4% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.2% (-0.5% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7% (-0.2% for the week)

    #42574
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s Core CPI increased at its fastest pace since late 2014 in the August reading.
    South Korea’s vice finance minister said that risks stemming from higher rates will be reviewed. Wealth management firms in China were ordered to strengthen internal controls.
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr said that at least a couple more rate hikes will be made and that the central bank is not projecting a technical recession at this time.
    Japan’s August Tokyo CPI 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.5%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.3%)
    Singapore’s July Industrial Production -2.3% m/m (expected 0.9%; last -8.0%); 0.6% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 2.6%)

    #42575
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.’s FTSE (+0.1%) outperforms, hovering just above its flat line.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% (-1.2% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: UNCH (-2.0% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.1% (-0.8% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -0.1% (-1.9% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.8% (-1.1% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2% (-2.1% week-to-date)
    July personal spending and income

    #42576
    Truman
    Participant

    British energy regulator announced that the energy price cap will be nearly doubled from October 1 for the next three months.
    The cap is expected to be increased again in early 2023.
    Germany’s economy minister echoed the sentiment, saying that energy prices are expected to increase sharply in the winter.
    Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate fell to a record low in the September reading.
    Eurozone’s July Private Sector Loans 4.5% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; last 4.6%)
    Germany’s September GfK Consumer Climate -36.5 (expected -31.8; last -30.9)
    France’s August Consumer Confidence 82 (expected 79; last 80)
    Italy’s August Business Confidence 104.3 (expected 104.4; last 106.4) and Consumer Confidence 98.3 (expected 92.5; last 94.8)

    #42577
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.10.
    S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
    Nasdaq 100 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

    #42578
    Truman
    Participant

    Affirm (AFRM 27.07, -4.16, -13.32%): reports Q4 (Jun) results, beats on revs, GMV increased 77% yr/yr; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus
    Gap (GPS 10.66, +0.65, +6.49%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line, comps of -10%; withdraws prior FY23 guidance
    Dell (DELL 45.26, -2.64, -5.51%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; notes demand environment has slowed as macro dynamics have become more challenging
    Ulta Beauty (ULTA 434.35, +15.10, +3.60%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs, comps of +14.4%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises FY23 comp guidance
    Workday (WDAY 181.00, +18.64, +11.48%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 subscription revs; reaffirms FY23 revenue guidance
    Domo (DOMO 24.06, -4.61, -16.08%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
    Seagen (SGEN 147.53, -16.84, -10.25%): Merck (MRK) discussions to acquire Seagen (SGEN) hit a roadblock over price, according to Bloomberg.
    Elastic (ESTC 81.00, -3.98, -4.68%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; also names AWS exec as chief product officer
    Marvell (MRVL 53.35, -1.74, -3.16%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Electronic Arts (EA 145.50, +17.89, +14.02%): moving on For The Win USA Today report that Amazon (AMZN) is interested in acquiring the company

    #42579
    Truman
    Participant

    Moving the Market

    — Disinflation in July PCE Price Index

    — Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole

    — Rising Treasury yields

    The mega caps are weighing on index performance with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) down 2.5% versus a 1.9% loss in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and the S&P 500.

    The S&P 500 communication services (-2.9%), information technology (-2.5%), and consumer discretionary (-2.5%) sectors are the worst performers thanks to their mega cap components.

    Separately, the 10-yr note yield is off its high of the day, unchanged at 3.03%. The 2-yr note yield, on the other hand, is near its high of the day, up four basis points to 3.42%

    The advance-decline line shows decliners outpacing advancers by a 5-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

    The stock market has been volatile since Fed Chair Powell’s speech. There was a knee-jerk sell off, followed by a bounce and then another sell off.

    The speech itself left an impression that the Fed is not entertaining the notion of a pivot to a rate-cut cycle anytime soon. Notably, Mr. Powell acknowledged that efforts to reduce inflation “will also bring some pain to households and businesses” but that failing to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 63 total)
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