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Eurozone’s December CPI -0.4% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.1%); 9.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.1%). December Core CPI 0.6% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 5.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.0%). November Construction Output -0.81% m/m (last 1.00%)
U.K.’s December CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 10.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.7%). December Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%); 6.3% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.3%). December RPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 0.6%) and Core RPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.5%)
Italy’s November trade surplus EUR1.445 bln (expected deficit of EUR1.800 bln; last deficit of EUR2.057 bln)
European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against yesterday’s report that the ECB is looking to reduce the size of its rate hikes at the policy meeting in March. He added that inflation is expected to return to target by 2025.
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt is reportedly planning to present a slimmed-down budget with no tax cuts in mid-March
The IMF’s chief economist said that the fund’s upcoming forecasts will be similar to the prior update.United Airlines (UAL 52.95, +1.75, +3.4%): beats by $0.33, beats on revs, remains confident in achieving pre-tax margin target of about 9% in 2023; guides 1Q23 EPS and revenue above consensus, guides FY23 EPS and revenue above consensus
Charles Schwab (SCHW 84.40, +0.91, +1.1%): misses by $0.47, reports revs in-line
PNC (PNC 155.00, -6.85, -4.2%): misses by $0.47, reports revs in-line
J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT 172.50, -3.79, -2.2%): misses by $0.52, misses on revs
Microsoft (MSFT 240.48, +0.49, +0.2%) plans to announce layoffs today, according to WSJ
Moderna (MRNA 205.23, +14.54, +7.6%): MRNA-1345, an investigational RSV vaccine, meets primary efficacy endpoints in Phase 3 trial in older adults.Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in December (consensus -0.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in November (from +0.3%). Core-PPI, which excludes foods and energy, rose 0.1% in December (consensus +0.1%) after a prior revised 0.2% increase (from 0.4%).
Retail sales fell 1.1% in December (consensus -0.8%) following a revised 1.0% decline in November (from -0.6%). Retail sales, excluding autos, fell 1.1% in December (consensus -0.5%) following a prior 0.6% decline (from -0.2%).
PPPPPLLLLLUUUNNNGGGGEEEEEE on WALL STREET
The earnings outlook ain’t that rosy ahead
One of FAV jazz artists who is a personal friend that performed in our church about 5 years ago
the last great artist my bride & me saw in concert — with messages of good cheer 🙂MINUS +500 on DOW — as outlook on WALL STREET, “politically”, & DEBT ceiling wise does not look good
Maybe Living in PAST was better after all – lol 🙂Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note.
—Equity Markets—
Japan’s Nikkei: -1.4%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.1%
China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.5%
India’s Sensex: -0.3%
South Korea’s Kospi: +0.5%
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%A Reuters poll showed that 53% of Japanese companies plan to raise wages this year, but 81% of companies expressed pessimism about the next three months.
Australia reported disappointing employment data for December.
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Ardern resigned, planning to leave office by February 7. New Zealand will hold a general election in October.
Consumer spending in Thailand during next week’s Lunar New Year celebrations is expected to be at a three-year high.
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75%, but also hinted at a likely pause at its next meeting.
Japan’ December trade deficit JPY1.449 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.653 trln; last deficit of JPY2.027 trln). December Imports 20.6% yr/yr (expected 22.4%; last 30.3%) and Exports 11.5% yr/yr (expected 10.1%; last 20.0%)
Hong Kong’s December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (last 3.7%)
Australia’s December Employment Change -14,600 (expected 22,500; last 58,200) and full Employment Change 17,600 (last 33,200). December Unemployment Rate 3.5% (expected 3.4%; last 3.5%) and Participation Rate 66.6% (expected 66.8%; last 66.8%). January MI Inflation Expectations 5.6% (last 5.2%)
New Zealand’s December FPI 1.1% m/m (last 0.0%)Major European indices trade well below their flat lines amid renewed concerns about growth.
—Equity Markets—
STOXX Europe 600: -1.6%
Germany’s DAX: -1.7%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: -1.2%
France’s CAC 40: -1.8%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.5%
Spain’s IBEX 35: -2.2%Major European indices trade well below their flat lines amid renewed concerns about growth.
European Central Bank policymaker Knot said that the central bank plans to implement multiple 50-bps rate hikes and that he sees no signs of a slowdown in underlying inflation.
EU Economic Commissioner Gentiloni said that the bloc is currently in a contraction that is likely to last two quarters.
Norway’s central bank left its policy rate at 2.75% but signaled a rate hike in March.
Eurozone’s November Current Account surplus EUR13.60 bln (expected deficit of EUR11.60 bln; last deficit of EUR4.50 bln)
Swiss December PPI -0.7% m/m (last -0.5%); 3.2% yr/yr (last 3.8%)
Spain’s November trade deficit EUR3.31 bln (last deficit of EUR6.85 bln)Alcoa (AA 50.20, -3.25, -6.1%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; projects 2023 total alumina shipments of 12.7-12.9 mln metric tons; aluminum shipments between 2.5-2.6 mln metric tons
Discover Financial Services (DFS 94.85, -7.49, -7.3%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs
Fastenal (FAST 47.08, -0.46, -1.0%): raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.31 prior; beats by $0.01, beats on revs
Fifth Third (FITB 32.72, 0.00, 0.0%): beats by $0.01; issues guidance for Q4 (Dec), issues in-line guidance for FY23 (Dec)
Procter & Gamble (PG 142.48, -3.02, -2.1%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance; raises FY23 revenue guidance
Truist (TFC 45.33, -0.41, -0.9%): beats by $0.02
Charles Schwab (SCHW 79.06, -2.32, -2.9%): downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank of America
Philip Morris (PM 99.60, +0.34, +0.3%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Apple (AAPL 133.60, -1.61, -1.2%): ticking lower on news it is looking to expand its smart-home lineup, aimed at challenging Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG), according to BloombergEnergy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $78.85/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $3.14/mmbtu.
Total housing starts declined 1.4% month-over-month in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.382 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.355 million)
Total building permits declined 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.330 million (consensus 1.370 million).The key takeaway from the report is that new single-family starts increased by 11.3% month-over-month even though total starts recorded a month-over-month decrease. This element lends some optimism regarding a sector that has been pressured by rising rates and decreasing affordability. That said, building permits, which have a leading indicator status, decreased for the third consecutive month.
The change in single-unit starts by region: Northeast (+96.9%); Midwest (-4.2%); South (+4.4%); and West (+6.7%).
The change in single-unit permits by region: Northeast (-5.9%); Midwest (0.0%); South (-3.4%); and West (-10.3%).
Multi-unit starts were down 18.9% month-over-month and multi-unit permits were down 3.4% month-over-month.
The number of units under construction at the end of the period was up 0.6% month-over-month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.712 million.Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 14 decreased by 15,000 to 190,000 (consensus 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 7 increased by 17,000 to 1.647 million.
The key takeaway from the report is that new claims were at their lowest level since late September, implying no new difficulties in the labor market that could put a quick stop to the Fed’s hiking cycle.
The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 6,500 to 206,000.
The four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 5,500 to 1,673,000.
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending December 31 was 1,893,525, an increase of 159,159 from the previous week. In the same week a year ago, there were 2,302,030 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs.U.S. Treasuries a lower start in most tenors while the 2-yr note is expected to begin closer to its unchanged level.
Worth noting that Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 bps and signaled a pause at the next meeting while Norges Bank announced no changes but hinted at a 25-bps hike in March.
Yields:
2-yr: +3 bps to 4.12%
3-yr: +7 bps to 3.78%
5-yr: +6 bps to 3.49%
10-yr: +4 bps to 3.41%
30-yr: +3 bps to 3.57%
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