Traders Market Weekly: Is the Goldilocks Scenario a Myth and Does it Matter?

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    Personal income increased 0.2% month-over-month in July (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.3% increase in June.
    Personal spending jumped 0.8% month-over-month (consensus 0.7%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.5%) in June.
    The PCE Price Index was up 0.2% month-over-month and so was the core-CPE Price Index, both of which were in-line with expectations.

    On a year-over-year basis, however, the inflation readings moved in the wrong direction. The PCE Price Index was up 3.3%, versus 3.0% in June, while the core-CPE Price Index was up 4.2%, versus 4.1% in June.

    The key takeaway from the report would have to be the uptick in the year-over-year inflation readings. They weren’t of the eye-popping variety; however, they should catch the Fed’s eye as a basis not to cut rates anytime soon.


    Initial claims for the week ending August 26 decreased by 4,000 to 228,000 (consensus 235,000) and continuing claims for the week ending August 19 increased by 28,000 to 1.725 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims — a leading indicator — continue to run at levels that are indicative of a tight labor market that goes hand-in-hand with an economy that is definitely not in a hard-landing pattern.

    Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels following the data.

    The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.88% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.11%.


    The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 11 point and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 133 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.


    Dow 34,721.91 -168.33 -0.48%
    S&P 500 4,507.66 -7.21 -0.16%
    Nasdaq 14,034.97 15.66 0.11%
    VIX 13.56 -0.32 -2.31%
    Gold 1,967.00 -6.00 -0.30%
    Oil 83.56 1.93 2.36%

    in honor of the beautiful SUPER BLUE MOON 🙂


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while markets in Hong Kong were closed due to a typhoon.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.3% (+3.4% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: CLOSED (+2.4% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.4% (+2.3% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: +0.9% (+0.8% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.3% (+1.8% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4% (+2.2% for the week).


    China’s August Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (expected 49.3; last 49.2)
    Japan’s August Manufacturing PMI 49.6 (expected 49.7; last 49.6)
    Japan’s Manufacturing PMI contracted for the third month in a row.
    South Korea’s August Manufacturing PMI 48.9 (last 49.4)
    South Korea’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for the 14th consecutive month.
    India’s August Manufacturing PMI 58.6 (expected 57.5; last 57.7)
    Australia’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month while


    Japan’s Q2 Capital Spending 4.5% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 11.0%)

    South Korea’s August trade surplus $870 mln (expected surplus of $1.65 bln; last surplus of $1.65 bln). August Imports -22.8% yr/yr (expected -25.4%; last -25.4%) and Exports -8.4% yr/yr (expected -16.4%; last -16.4%).

    Australia’s July Home Loans -2.3% m/m (expected -1.0%; last -3.0%) and Invest Housing Finance -0.1% m/m (last 1.3%)


    Li Auto (LI 42.690, +0.95, +2.3%): reports August deliveries increased 663.8% yr/yr

    The People’s Bank of China will lower the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 4.00% from 6.00%, effective September 15.
    The PBoC also confirmed speculation about rate cuts on some existing mortgages, effective September 25.
    In addition, the Chinese government is raising the personal income tax deductions for child care.


    Major European indices are seeking a mostly higher finish to the week.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.4% (+1.9% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1% (+1.9% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.6% (+2.0% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: +0.2% (+1.4% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1% (+2.3% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.3% (+2.1% week-to-date).


    Manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. remained in contractionary territory in their final readings for August.

    Eurozone’s August Manufacturing PMI 43.5 (expected 43.7; last 42.7)
    Germany’s August Manufacturing PMI 39.1, as expected (last 38.8)
    U.K.’s August Manufacturing PMI 43.0 (expected 42.5; last 45.3)
    France’s August Manufacturing PMI 46.0 (expected 46.4; last 45.1)
    Italy’s August Manufacturing PMI 45.4 (expected 46.0; last 44.5).
    Spain’s August Manufacturing PMI 46.5 (expected 48.8; last 47.8)
    Swiss August August PMI 39.9 (expected 40.0; last 38.5)


    U.K.’s August Nationwide HPI -0.8% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.3%); -5.3% yr/yr (expected -3.9%; last -3.8%).

    France’s July government budget deficit EUR169.0 bln (last deficit of EUR116.2 bln).

    Italy’s Q2 GDP -0.4% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 0.6%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 1.9%). July PPI -0.1% m/m (last -0.3%); -10.2% yr/yr (last -5.5%)

    Swiss August CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.1%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%).

    European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the interest rate peak is near, fueling additional speculation about a potential pause at the September meeting.


    Broadcom (AVGO 886.70, -36.19, -3.9%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs in-line
    lululemon athletica (LULU 390.00, +8.74, +2.3%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs, comparable store sales of +7%; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; raises FY24 EPS and revenue guidance above consensus
    MongoDB (MDB 402.00, +20.70, +5.4%): beats by $0.47, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
    Dell (DELL 61.60, +5.36, +9.5%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs; sees Q3 EPS mostly above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY24 EPS and revenue forecasts
    PagerDuty (PD 22.74, -3.02, -11.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, guides FY24 revs in-line; downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird
    Elastic (ESTC 71.55, +9.67, +15.6%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
    Oxford Industries (OXM 95.75, -5.24, -5.2%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
    SentinelOne (S 17.38, +0.75, +4.5%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus
    Nutanix (NTNX 37.13, +6.03, +19.4%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus; authorizes $350 mln for repurchases


    Vale S.A. (VALE 13.35, +0.18, +1.4%): begins load tests at the first iron ore briquette plant in Brazil; upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan


    Charter (CHTR 435.00, -3.12, -0.7%): customers will not be able to watch Disney (DIS) networks this weekend amid dispute; provides presentation and update on distribution agreement with Disney (DIS)


    Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 25.65, +0.34, +1.3%): announces leadership transition; Rosalind Brewer steps down as CEO and member of the board; Ginger Graham, current lead independent director, appointed interim CEO; sees FY23 EPS at or near low end of prior range

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 79 total)
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