Traders Market Weekly: September 12 to 18 2021

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    [color=purple][i][b]Where have we been and where are we … Wish all a good safe week ahead
    Thankful for a safe 20th ANNIV yesterday & good commemoration services
    Main street & even markets won’t like the new OSHA based VAX mandate
    While VAX is beneficial it’s not 100% for all – even though relatively safe etc
    Hopefully the virus mutations will all eventually fade out 8)[/b][/i][/color]


    Worst case scenario – some beautiful DEER MASKS if needed later on – lol


    HOUSTON – we have a problem – baton down the hatches :woohoo:


    The weather doesn’t stop. Tropical storm Nicholas has formed in the Gulf and is heading in our way. Make sure you’re prepared.

    FLASH FLOOD WATCH⛔ has been issued for Harris County from 7 PM TODAY through 7 PM Tuesday.
    ⛔ Widespread total rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are expected
    ⛔ Monitor local forecasts
    ⛔ Be prepared to TAKE ACTION if warnings are issued


    Market Updates

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +20.0
    10 yr Note: 1.334%
    USD/JPY: 110.11 +0.23
    EUR/USD: 1.1789 -0.0020
    Europe: FTSE: +0.5% DAX: +0.7% CAC: +0.5%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -1.5% Shanghai: +0.3% Nikkei:+0.2%
    Gold (1790.90 -1.20) Silver (23.72 -0.18) Crude (70.41 +0.69)


    Overnight Summary — World markets see an early bounce

    The global equity markets are mostly higher. S&P Futures are up about 20 points to trade around the 4468 area. The market’s early bid was met with sellers, culminating with a low of 4446.50 at the tail end of the Asian session. Buyers stepped up since then to take the S&P to the current level. Spoos are just off the overnight high of 4471.50.

    In Asia, China rose 0.3% while Japan posted a gain 0.2%. The Shanghai chopped away before managing to close near the day’s high. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng took a dive following reports the Chinese government is looking to break up Alipay. In Japan, the Nikkei saw buyers win out to close modestly higher. Strength was led by semiconductors where Tokyo Electron and Advantest finished about 2% higher. On the flip side, automakers fell under pressure with losses of 1% by Nissan, Toyota and Honda.

    In Europe, the major bourses are outpacing their global peers. Germany saw Wholesale prices rise 12.3% year over year for July and represented the strongest growth since 1974. With crude oil surging back above the $70 level. energy stocks such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell are trading over 1% better.


    Gapping up

    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    NEGG +6.6%, AMYT +1.2%
    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:

    MT +1.5%, CLF +1%, X +1%, RIO +0.9%, BHP +0.9%
    Select oil/gas related names showing strength:

    RDS.A +1.5%, OIH +1.4%, SLB +1.1%, BP +1.1%, HAL +1.1%, XLE +0.8%, XOM +0.8%, USO +0.7%

    Other news:

    HEPA +17.5% (schedules conference call to review data from Phase 2a ‘AMBITION’ clinical trial of CRV431 in NASH)
    ADAP +14.2% (announces updated data from its Phase 1 SURPASS trial in multiple solid tumors to be presented in a digital poster at the upcoming European Society for Medical Oncology annual meeting)
    MIRM +4.7% (submits European Marketing Authorization Application for maralixibat in alagille syndrome supported by new positive results from natural history study comparison)
    DDI +3.8% (Shareholder B. Riley Financial (RILY) announced intention to purchase additional shares)
    SIGA +3.8% (receives BARDA exercise of procurement option valued at $112.5 mln for oral TPOXX)
    GSM +3.7% (files for 91,708,179 ordinary stock offering by selling shareholder)
    HCM +3% (receives breakthrough therapy designation in China for Amdizalisib)
    CYTK +2.6% (reports results from REDWOOD-HCM and GALACTIC-HF presented in late breaking clinical trial session at the HFSA Annual Scientific Meeting)
    CPG +2.4% (increases dividend and provides preliminary 2022 budget)
    LMPX +2.3% (to purchase an 85% interest in the Alan Jay Automotive Network; expects to be accretive to adj. EBITDA in 2022)
    SPRT +1.6% (follow-up to special meeting vote on merger)
    RDHL +1.5% (accelerates ongoing U.S. Phase 2/3 COVID-19 study of once-daily oral RHB-107 in Non-hospitalized patients with South African approval)
    REPH +1.4% (files for 9,302,718 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
    ASPN +1% (files for 3,462,124 share common stock offering by selling shareholder)

    Analyst comments:

    DELL +2.1% (upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman)
    CG +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)


    Gapping down
    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    NUVA -5.5% (Q3 guidance)

    Other news:

    MDXG -47.3% (reports top-line data from two late-stage musculoskeletal trials)
    DVAX -8% (provides update on its COVID-19 Collaboration with Valneva)
    AVTR -3.7% (to offer for sale in an underwritten offering $750 million of its common stock)
    EJH -3.5% (files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
    LESL -1.9% (to offer in underwritten secondary offering 13 mln shares of common stock)
    LTRX -1.2% (files for $100 mln common stock offering)

    Analyst comments:

    CRWD -1.6% ( downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
    CHKP -1.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
    AZUL -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities)


    Goldman initiated coverage of Airbnb (ABNB) with a Sell rating and $132 price target.

    The firm initiated coverage of the U.S. internet sector with a “selectively positive view.” The industry still has “ample opportunities” for secular revenue growth and increased operating efficiencies on the back of building scale in the coming years, Sheridan tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Airbnb shares have a negative risk/reward skew when measured against the potential for a volatile travel environment ahead, a relatively mature end market and high levels of competitive intensity among industry players.


    Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of eFfector Therapeutics (EFTR) with an Overweight rating and $50 price target.

    The firm believes eFfector’s pipeline is underappreciated and thinks pipeline advancements will move the stock higher.
    Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Tyler Technologies (TYL) with an Outperform rating and $550 price target. The firm sees improving demand trends in the market for Tyler coupled with an accelerating shift to the cloud. The firm would be buying the shares at current levels.



    Morgan Stanley downgraded Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $20 as he assumed coverage of the stock. The firm think Physicians Realty’s balance sheet relative to medical office building peers suggests greater flexibility and lower leverage, which can enable the company to drive more accretion to FFO relative to peers. However, the firm is on the sidelines as he prefers Triple Net REITs, where the firm sees better value with good fundamentals.

    Credit Suisse downgraded General Mills (GIS) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $63, down from $68. The firm still views the company as “relatively advantaged” versus its food peers but sees risk to the back-half of its fiscal year. The firm notes management called out unexpected labor inflation and delays from suppliers and said they will need to take additional pricing and cost efficiency actions to mitigate higher costs on the core business. The firm senses this will lead to “another pricing lag and more margin compression” in the back half of fiscal 2022 when General Mills’ hedges roll over and the full impact of the inflation flows through.

    BTIG downgraded Nike (NKE) to Neutral from Buy without a price target. The firm notes supply chain and retail channel checks indicate “severe supply chain disruptions” emanating from the Covid-driven factory shutdowns in Vietnam that have worsened since Nike last reported on June 24. The firm believes the risk of significant cancellations beginning this holiday and running through at least next spring has “risen materially” for Nike. The company is now facing at least two months of virtually no unit production at its Vietnamese factories which accounted for 51% of footwear and 30% of apparel units last year, says the analyst. The firm estimates Nike’s fiscal 2022 sales could be flat to up low single digits versus the current guidance of up low double digits. The firm downgrades the shares pending better visibility around timelines for a return to normalized production and shipping schedules.



    Bernstein upgraded MGM Resorts (MGM) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $58.90 price target. The firm has not given MGM enough credit on the progress made in its interactive strategy through BetMGM and tells investors in a research note that MGM has finally been able to effectuate fully its real estate divestiture strategy and buy out its 50% partner in City Center.

    BMO Capital upgraded Carlyle Group (CG) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $65, up from $59, implying 35% total return. The firm expects a “narrowing of the valuation gap” relative to capital-lite peers Blackstone (BX) and Ares Management (ARES), driven by a near-term inflection in organic net flows and earnings growth, a reduction in the perceived cyclicality of Carlyle’s business and further increases in the accrued carry balance. The firm notes, while Carlyle’s recent growth has been below peer, it should inflect in the near term.

    Piper Sandler upgraded CareMax (CMAX) to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $14. At last week’s analyst and investor day, the firm notes management articulated a clear and focused multi-year strategy that prioritizes organic growth through fiscal 2024. The firm believes the execution risk cited in her July 1 initiation report is “significantly reduced as a result of the company’s strategic shift,” and more than priced in at current share levels.

    Raymond James upgraded NGM Biopharmaceuticals (NGM) to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $39, up from $27, given validation of its C3 antibody mechanism and the large potential opportunity for NGM621 in GA. The firm notes that Phase 3 data for Apellis’ (APLS) pegcetacoplan in GA provide strong evidence that complement inhibition is an active mechanism in GA. This makes the large GA market accessible to the few mid-stage clinical complement players with plenty of room for differentiation/optimization, he contends. Near term, a first-look readout for cancer cachexia agent NGM120 at ESMO next week is a free call option.


    3M warns on impact of inflation and global chip shortage

    Industrial giant 3M now sees 2021 fiscal year auto production down 6% due to impact of the global chip shortage. Previously the company saw it having a 3% impact.

    Moreover, the company said that inflation is higher than they thought it would be in Q3. On the supply chain, they said that raw materials are the largest issue, more so that intermediate goods.

    Shares of the company are falling but this is an issue for so many companies and the broader economy.


    Some of best rock all-time to take minds off our own troubled times 8)


    [color=green][size=5][b]Dow 34,869.63 261.91 0.76%
    S&P 500 4,468.73 10.15 0.23%
    Nasdaq 15,105.58 -9.91 -0.07%
    GlobalDow 4,061.35 27.85 0.69%
    Gold 1,794.70 2.60 0.15%
    Oil 70.71 0.99 1.42[/b][/size][/color]



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