Traders Market Weekly: Embrace the Chaos in 2023

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 81 total)
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    CarMax (KMX 51.60, -7.77, -13.1%): misses by $0.43, misses on revs
    Micron (MU 49.66, -1.53, -3.0%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides FebQ EPS below consensus, revs in-line; expects improving customer inventories to enable higher revs in 2H23; announces restructuring plan in response to challenging industry conditions; to reduce headcount by approximately 10% over CY23
    Under Armour C (UA 8.70, +0.07, +0.8%): appoints Stephanie Linnartz as President and CEO; effective Feb 27, 2023
    Apogee Enterprises (APOG 45.95, 1.15, +2.6%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; raises bottom end of FY23 EPS guidance
    MillerKnoll (MLKN 18.70, +0.43, +2.4%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FebQ EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Tesla (TSLA 138.30, +0.73, +0.5%): will offer $7,500 discounts on Model 3 and Model Y cars this month, according to Reuters


    Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 216,000 (consensus 225,000) following last week’s revised total of 214,000 (from 211,000). Continuing claims totaled 1.672 million after last week’s revised count of 1.678 million (from 1.671 million).

    The third estimate for Q3 GDP rose to 3.2% from the prior reading of 2.9% (2.9%). The third estimate for Q3 GDP Deflator rose to 4.4% from the prior reading of 4.3% ( consensus 4.3%).


    The equity futures market deteriorated after the 8:30 a.m. ET data releases.

    The S&P 500 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 125 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 218 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.

    The third estimate for Q3 GDP revealed that consumer spending increased 2.3%, versus 1.7% in the second estimate, and 2.0% in the second quarter. That upward revision helped drive an upward revision for Q3 GDP growth to 3.2% (2.9%) from the second estimate of 2.9%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 4.4% 4.3%) from 4.3%.

    The key takeaway from the report is that growth in the third quarter was stronger than previously expected and above potential, which is also why the Fed continued to raise rates aggressively in the third quarter.

    The latest weekly initial claims report won’t silence the concerns about future Fed tightening either. Initial claims for the week ending December 17 increased by 2,000 to 216,000 (consensus 225,000). Continuing claims for the week ending December 10 decreased by 6,000 to 1.672 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims remain at remarkably low levels associated with a tight labor market. In turn, a tight labor market will remain associated with more Fed tightening.


    INFLATION is even impacting the NORTH POLE … Each Christmas it costs Santa EIGHT BUCKS to fuel his sleigh
    This year, it’ll cost NINE – as he’ll have to hook up RUDOLPH due to blizzard ahead


    Dow 33,027.49 -348.99 -1.05%
    S&P 500 3,822.39 -56.05 -1.45%
    Nasdaq 10,476.12 -233.25 -2.18%
    VIX 21.89 1.82 9.07%
    Gold 1,800.10 -25.30 -1.39%
    Oil 78.19 -0.10 -0.13%


    Winter storm ELLIOT has arrived roaring into SW VIRGINIA
    We dropped 20F in 1 hour — in a flash freeze (8F & still falling)


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.0% (-4.7% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.4% (+0.7% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (-3.9% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: -0.4% (-0.8% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.8% (-2.0% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7% (-0.7% for the week)


    Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida is reportedly considering a cabinet reshuffle early next year.
    Japan’s core CPI was up 3.7% yr/yr in the November reading, increasing at its fastest pace since early 1982.
    The Japanese government expects that the next spike in food prices is likely to happen in February.
    South Korea’s vice finance minister said that the government will focus on stabilizing prices and creating jobs.
    Markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand will be closed on Monday.
    China’s November FDI 9.9% YTD (last 14.4%) o Japan’s November CPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.6%); 3.8% yr/yr (last 3.7%). November National Core CPI 3.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.6%)
    Singapore’s November Industrial Production -1.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); -3.2% yr/yr (expected -1.1%; last -0.9%). November CPI 6.7% yr/yr (expected 6.5%; last 6.7%) and Core CPI 5.1% yr/yr (expected 5.0%; last 5.1%)
    Australia’s November Housing Credit 0.4% m/m (last 0.4%) and Private Sector Credit 0.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.5%)


    Major European indices are little changed in quiet pre-holiday trade.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (+0.8% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: +0.3% (+0.5% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.1% (+2.0% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -0.2% (+0.8% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1% (+0.7% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: UNCH (+1.9% week-to-date)


    Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak said oil output may be reduced by up to 7% next year in response to the EU price cap.
    Contract chipmaker TSMC is reportedly looking to build a chip fab in Germany.
    Markets in Germany, France, U.K., Italy, Spain, and Switzerland will be closed on Monday.
    France’s November PPI 1.2% m/m (last -0.2%)
    Italy’s December Business Confidence 101.4 (expected 102.7; last 102.5) and Consumer Confidence 102.5 (expected 98.5; last 98.1)
    Spain’s Q3 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 2.0%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 7.6%)


    Nutanix (NTNX 23.40, -4.52, -16.2%): weakness attributed to speculation that Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is losing interest in acquiring the company
    Apple (AAPL 132.36, +0.13, +0.1%): workers in Australia go on strike, according to Reuters
    Meta (META 117.65, +0.53, +0.5%): will pay $725 mln to settle privacy lawsuit, according to Bloomberg
    Tesla (TSLA 126.99, +1.64, +1.3%): CEO Elon Musk says in interview that he will not sell Tesla shares for 18-24 months and buybacks will depend on economy, according to WSJ
    Mission Produce (AVO 12.57, -2.04, -14.0%): misses by $0.23, misses on revs as prices declined rapidly; expects more normal marketplace in 2023


    Personal Income for Nov.

    Personal income rose 0.4% in November (consensus 0.3%) after a 0.7% increase in October.
    Personal spending rose 0.1% (consensus 0.1%) following a revised 0.9% increase in October (form 0.8%).

    The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) in November following a revised 0.4% increase in October (from 0.3%).
    Core PCE Price Index rose 0.2% in November (consensus 0.3%) following a revised 0.3% increase in October (from 0.2%).


    Durable good orders decreased 2.1% in November (consensus -1.0%) following revised 0.7% increase in October (from 1.0%).
    Durable good orders, excluding transportation, rose 0.2% in November (consensus 0.1%) following a revised 0.1% increase in October (from 0.5%).


    The key takeaway from the report is that real spending was flat while the inflation rates were still too high for the Fed’s liking, making for an off-putting stagflation mix.

    The key takeaway from the report is that nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft — a proxy for business spending — were up just 0.2% while shipments, which factor into GDP computations, were down 0.1% month-over-month.

    Treasury yields moved higher after the reports were released.

    The 10-yr note yield, at 3.70% a short time ago, sits at 3.73% now.
    The 2-yr note yield, at 4.27% a short time ago, sits at 4.31%.


    Dow 33192.46 +159.63 (0.48%)
    Nasdaq 10422.04 +6.07 (0.06%)
    SP 500 3839.77 +16.96 (0.44%)
    10-yr Note -5/32 3.739

    NYSE Adv 1811 Dec 1151 Vol 248.0 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2094 Dec 2229 Vol 2.25 bln

    Strong: Energy, Utilities, Communication Services, Financials, Materials
    Weak: Information Technology, Health Care

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