Traders Market Weekly: Hedge Funds, Bonds and China Distortion

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    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Mountain Day.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED (+0.9% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.9% (-2.4% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -2.0% (-3.0% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: -0.6% (-0.6% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.4% (-0.4% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (+0.2% for the week)


    China reported weak credit growth for July, adding to concerns about domestic demand. Developer Country Garden faced continued pressure after warning that it is facing a loss of up to 55 bln CNY for the first half of the year. The firm has reportedly hired China International Capital Corporation to assist with debt restructuring.

    China’s July New Loans CNY345.9 bln (expected CNY800.0 bln; last CNY3.05 trln),
    July total social financing CNY528.2 bln (expected CNY1.10 trln; last CNY4.22 trln),
    July outstanding loan growth 11.1% yr/yr (expected 11.3%; last 11.3%)


    Officials from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea are working to establish an annual meeting between heads of the three countries.

    Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP -1.3% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 5.3%); 1.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%)

    Singapore’s Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last -0.4%); 0.5% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 0.4%)

    New Zealand’s June FPI -0.5% m/m (expected 2.1%; last 0.3%) and July Business NZ PMI 46.3 (expected 49.4; last 47.6)


    Major European indices trade in the red.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.0% (UNCH week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -1.0% (-0.8% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -1.3% (-0.6% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -1.4% (+0.2% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.0% (-1.1% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.8% (+0.7% week-to-date)


    The U.K. reported better than expected growth for Q2, showing continued resilience in the face of rate hikes.
    Chancellor Hunt said that British growth can exceed that of Germany, France, and Italy if the government sticks to its plans.

    U.K.’s Q2 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 0.1%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%).
    Q2 Business Investment 3.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.8%; last 3.3%); 6.7% yr/yr (expected 8.1%; last 5.8%).
    June Construction Output 1.6% m/m (last -0.3%); 4.6% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 0.2%).
    June Industrial Production 1.8% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.6%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected -1.1%; last -2.1%).
    June Manufacturing Production 2.4% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last -0.6%).
    June trade deficit GBP15.46 bln (expected deficit of GBP16.40 bln; last deficit of GBP18.41 bln)


    The Italian government plans to acquire a stake of up to 20% in Telecom Italia’s network, which is on track to be sold to KKR.

    Italy’s June trade surplus EUR7.718 bln (expected surplus of EUR6.489 bln; last surplus of EUR4.767 bln)

    France’s Q2 Unemployment Rate 7.2% (expected 7.1%; last 7.1%). July CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 4.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.5%)

    Spain’s July CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.6%); 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%). July Core CPI 6.2% yr/yr (last 5.9%)


    Savers Value Village (SVV 24.98, +1.38, +5.9%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus, expects FY23 comps of +5.0%

    Flowers Foods (FLO 25.38, +0.61, +2.5%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

    News Corp. (NWSA 20.28, -0.03, -0.2%): beats by $0.05, misses on revs

    Cano Health (CANO 0.83, -0.69, -45.7%): reports Q2 results; misses on revs; provides update on strategic actions, including a possible sale; plans to exit some operations; workforce reduction; says there is substantial doubt about ability to continue as a going concern; to delay 10-Q filing


    Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 94.00, -1.32, -1.4%): downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research (AMZN 138.17, -0.39, -0.3%): Reburn maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to $230 from $220


    Arco Platform (ARCE 13.50, +1.55, +13.0%): agrees to go private for $14.00 per share in cash


    The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of tight supply in 2023 due to OPEC+ production cuts, but said it expects demand growth to slowdown in 2024.


    The index for final demand increased 0.3% month-over-month in July (consensus +0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.0% (from 0.1%) for June.
    Excluding food and energy, the index for final demand was also up 0.3% month-over-month (consensus +0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from +0.1%) for June.
    On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 0.8%, versus 0.3% in June, and the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from June.

    The key takeaway from the report is that wholesale inflation has come down sharply from its peak in 2022, although with the recent increase in oil and gasoline prices, there will be some concern that further improvement is going to be delayed.


    Dow 35,281.40 105.25 0.30%
    S&P 500 4,464.05 -4.78 -0.11%
    Nasdaq 13,644.85 -93.14 -0.68%
    VIX 15.02 -0.83 -5.24%
    Gold 1,945.70 -3.20 -0.16%
    Oil 83.08 0.26 0.31%


    August 13 – 19, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Distortio
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