Traders Market Weekly: it’s a Mad, Mad World of Political Uncertainty

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    Another SUPER GREEN & RECORD close :)

    Dow 38,778.89 189.73 0.49%
    S&P 500 5,473.33 41.73 0.77%
    Nasdaq 17,857.02 168.14 0.95%
    VIX 12.68 0.02 0.16%
    Gold 2,334.30 -14.80 -0.63%
    Oil 80.47 2.02 2.57%


    The market-cap S&P 500 extended its record high, climbing 0.8%, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 registered a 0.7% gain. Decliners had a slim lead over advancers, though, at both the NYSE and at the Nasdaq.

    Outsized gains in Apple (AAPL 216.67, +4.18, +2.0%) and Microsoft (MSFT 448.37, +5.80, +1.3%), which are two of the three stocks with a market cap above $3 trillion, provided some support to the broader market. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was up 0.9%.

    Broadcom (AVGO 1828.87, +93.83, +5.4%) was another top performer today, along with other semiconductor-related names.

    The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped 1.6%.

    Strength in the mega cap and semiconductor spaces also boosted the S&P 500 information technology (+1.2%) and consumer discretionary (+1.4%) sectors to the top of the leaderboard today. These sectors combined comprise 43% of the index.

    The rate-sensitive real estate (-0.8%) and utilities (-0.5%) sectors were the top laggard, clipped by a jump in yields.

    The 10-yr note yield closed seven basis points higher at 4.28% and the 2-yr note yield settled eight basis points higher at 4.76%.


    Economic data was limited to the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, which rose to -6.0 in June (consensus -13.0) from -15.6 in May.

    Nasdaq Composite: +19.0% YTD
    S&P 500:+14.8% YTD
    S&P Midcap 400: +5.0% YTD
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.9% YTD
    Russell 2000: -0.3% YTD


    U.S. Treasuries are on track for a slightly lower start after facing some light overnight pressure in the futures market. Treasury futures inched higher in early evening action but found resistance near the start of the Asian session.

    The night was very quiet on the data front with Eurozone’s May CPI staying unrevised while the region’s latest economic sentiment survey beat estimates despite a poor showing from Germany.

    The U.S. session will feature the May Retail Sales report (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.6%) at 8:30 ET, followed by May Industrial Production (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.0%) at 9:15 ET, and the U.S. Treasury’s $13 bln 20-yr bond reopening at 13:00 ET.

    Crude oil is hovering near its 50-day moving average (79.98) while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% at 105.56.

    2-yr: +1 bp to 4.77%
    3-yr: +1 bp to 4.51%
    5-yr: +1 bp to 4.31%
    10-yr: +1 bp to 4.29%
    30-yr: UNCH at 4.41%


    NextEra Energy (NEE 69.00, -3.31, -4.6%): to sell $2.0 bln of equity units
    Chegg (CHGG 3.10, +0.49, +18.8%): announces restructuring plan and new vision for growth
    Boeing (BA 177.65, -0.74, -0.4%): Whistleblower says that Boeing (BA) lost track of 400 bad 737 parts, according to Bloomberg; Boeing CEO David Calhoun will testify to Senate today at 14:00 ET
    Occidental Petro (OXY 60.57, +0.37, +0.6%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett bought 2,947,611 shares at $59.38 – $60.37 worth nearly $176 mln


    Lennar (LEN 152.25, -4.26, -2.7%): beats by $0.22, beats on revs, new orders increased 19%; Issues Q3 guidance, including deliveries of 20,500-21,000
    La-Z-Boy (LZB 37.45, +3.36, +9.9%): beats by $0.25, beats on revs; expects industry to continue to be challenged in FY25


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +1.0%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.1%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.5%,
    India’s Sensex: +0.4%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.7%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.9%.


    Singapore’s May trade surplus $4.563 bln (last surplus of $4.516 bln).
    May non-oil exports -0.1% m/m (expected 1.7%; last 7.3%); -0.1% yr/yr (expected -0.9%; last -9.6%)

    China’s Premier Li expressed hope for improved relations with Australia.
    There was speculation that the People’s Bank of China will not make any changes to its loan prime rate this month.
    China’s National Development and Reform Commission noted that demand for electric vehicles has continued growing at a fast pace.

    Hong Kong’s exchange will stop imposing trading halts due to extreme weather.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 4.35%, as expected.


    Major European indices trade in the green.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.2%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.3%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.4%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.1%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.


    Eurozone’s CPI for May was left unrevised while the region’s latest economic sentiment survey beat estimates despite a poor showing in Germany.
    Eurozone’s May CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%). May Core CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.7%); 2.9% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%).
    June ZEW Economic Sentiment 51.3 (expected 47.8; last 47.0)

    Germany’s June ZEW Economic Sentiment 47.5 (expected 49.6; last 47.1) and Current Conditions -73.8 (expected -65.0; last -72.3)

    EU leaders failed to agree on appointments for top posts at the European Commission, European Council, and the foreign ministry, but they will continue debating next week.




    Good morning & hope all have a great day …. banks/markets closed for JUNETEENTH Federal holiday
    And it’s near the longest day of the year as summer begins tomorrow :)


    RECORD HEAT in EAST – as Samson the pug & I try to stay cool :)


    May Retail Sales 0.1% ( consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to -0.2% from 0.0%; May Retail Sales ex-auto -0.1% (consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%

    The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects some slowing in consumer spending on goods that will be accounted for in weaker Q2 real GDP forecasts.

    May Industrial Production 0.9% (consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.0%; May Capacity Utilization 78.7% (consensus 78.5%); Prior was revised to 78.2% from 78.4%

    The key takeaway from the report was that gains were widespread across the major market groups, with particular strength in manufacturing output that should mitigate hard-landing concerns.

    April Business Inventories 0.3% (consensus 0.3%); Prior -0.1%


    Corsair Gaming (CRSR) announces new partnership with TD Synnex (SNX) to foster new and existing relationships with customers… CRSR up 2.4%

    Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) announces SEC effectiveness of amended Form S-1, originally filed on April 15, 2024… DJT down 13.8%

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