Traders Market Weekly: Bull or Bear Trap Ahead of the Fed?

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 50 total)
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  • #46437
    Truman
    Participant

    British Prime Minister Sunak postponed the Autumn fiscal statement from October 31 to November 17.
    Deutsche Bank reported better than expected results while Mercedes beat estimates and raised its profit forecast for the full year.
    Spain’s economy minister Calvino said that his country is not expected to fall into recession.
    The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 75-bps rate hike tomorrow.
    Eurozone’s September M3 Money Supply 6.3% yr/yr (expected 6.1%; last 6.1%) and loans to nonfinancials 8.9% yr/yr (last 8.7%)
    France’s October Consumer Confidence 82 (expected 77; last 79)
    Italy’s non-EU trade deficit EUR5.44 bln (last deficit of EUR5.79 bln)
    Swiss October ZEW Expectations -53.1 (last -69.2)

    #46438
    Truman
    Participant

    Alphabet (GOOG 98.46 -6.47 (-6.17%): misses by $0.19, misses on revs; Google Advertising revenue up 2.5%, YouTube ad revenue down 1.8%; Q4 will see similar challenges faced in Q3
    Microsoft (MSFT 234.50 -16.16 (-6.45%)): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; Azure +42% CC, slightly below prior guidance of +43%; guides for total revenues of $52.35-53.35 bln vs. $54.8 bln Capital IQ consensus
    Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1,569.45 -14.57 (-0.92%): beats by $0.32, reports revs in-line; Expects Q4 comps to be in mid-to-high single digit range
    Visa (V 198.45 +4.07 (+2.09%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; announces new buyback, dividend hike
    Texas Instruments (TXN 153.08 -9.08 (-5.60%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
    Mattel (MAT 18.75 -1.02 (-5.16%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus
    Enphase Energy (ENPH 281.03 +15.44 (+5.81%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus
    Skechers USA (SKX 30.87 -5.06 (-14.08%): misses by $0.17, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus
    Spotify (SPOT 90.80 -6.25 (-6.44%): misses by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs in-line
    Boeing (BA 146.31 -0.34 (-0.23%): reports Q3 (Sep) results, misses on revs; revenue and earnings impacted by losses on fixed-price defense development programs; on path to achieving positive free cash flow for 2022
    Kraft Heinz (KHC 38.37 +1.31 (+3.53%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs

    #46439
    Truman
    Participant

    Advanced report for international trade in goods showed a deficit of $92.2 billion in September following a deficit of $87.3 billion.

    The advanced report for retail inventories showed an increase of 0.4% in September following a revised increase of 1.3% (from 1.4%).

    The advanced report for wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in September following a revised increase of 1.4% (from 1.3%).

    #46490

    Dow 31,839.11 2.37 0.01%
    S&P 500 3,830.60 -28.51 -0.74%
    Nasdaq 10,970.99 -228.12 -2.04%
    VIX 27.28 -1.18 -4.15%
    Gold 1,668.80 10.80 0.65%
    Oil 88.27 2.95 3.46%

    samples from 1 of best LIVE albums all time 🙂

    #46492

    and additional FAV songs for the playlist 🙂

    #46494

    and FAV song of all to complete playlist – lol 😉

    #46529
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.3%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.7%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.6%
    India’s Sensex: +0.4%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +1.7%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%

    #46530
    Truman
    Participant

    Press reports suggested that Japan is planning JPY29 trln in stimulus spending, up from the previous forecast for spending of JPY25.10 trln. The stimulus package is expected to be approved by Japan’s cabinet tomorrow.
    The Bank of Korea will temporarily broaden eligible loan collateral to improve liquidity among banks. Smartphone shipments in China were reportedly down 11% yr/yr in Q3.
    China’s September Industrial Profit -2.3% YTD (last -2.1%). September FDI 15.6% (last 16.4%)
    South Korea’s Q3 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.7%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 2.9%)
    Australia’s Q3 Import Price Index 3.0% qtr/qtr (last 4.3%) and Export Price Index -3.6% qtr/qtr (last 10.1%)

    #46531
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while the U.K.’s FTSE (+0.2%) outperforms.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.2%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.6%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: UNCH
    Spain’s IBEX 35: UNCH

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Truman.
    #46533
    Truman
    Participant

    British Prime Minister Sunak is reportedly reconsidering plans for tax hikes and spending cuts.
    The European Central Bank announced a 75-bps rate hike for its key policy rates.
    Shell reported strong earnings, raised its dividend, and announced a buyback.
    Credit Suisse reported a CHF4 bln loss and announced that its workforce will be reduced by 9,000 by the end of 2025.
    Germany’s November GfK Consumer Climate -41.9, as expected (last -42.8)
    U.K.’s October CBI Distributive Trades Survey 18 (last -20)
    Italy’s August Industrial Sales 3.6% m/m (last -0.2%); 23.1% yr/yr (last 16.2%). October Business Confidence 100.4 (expected 100.0; last 101.2) and Consumer Confidence 90.1 (expected 93.8; last 94.8)
    Spain’s Q3 Unemployment Rate 12.67% (expected 13.00%; last 12.48%)

    #46534
    Truman
    Participant

    Meta Platforms (META 100.94, -28.88, -22.3%): misses by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; lowers high end of FY22 expense guidance range, guides for FY23 expenses of $96-$101 bln; with over 140 bln Reels plays daily, company believes it is gaining time spend share from TikTok; ad revs from large advertisers remains challenged
    Ford Motor (F 12.57, -0.25, -1.95%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides to low end FY22 adjusted EBIT prior guidance; increases FY22 adjusted FCF guidance; resumes modest share repurchase program; to wind down its Argo AI joint venture
    Caterpillar (CAT 206.61, +9.65, +4.90%): beats by $0.79, beats on revs
    Merck (MRK 100.38, +1.97, +2.00%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
    McDonald’s (MCD 263.60, +6.99, +2.72%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs, global comps +9.5%, US comps +6.1%
    Honeywell (HON 199.00, +8.73, +4.59%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Southwest Air (LUV 36.00, +1.63, +4.74%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs above consensus
    Align Tech (ALGN 176.20, -45.44, -20.50%): misses by $0.81, misses on revs
    Sleep Number (SNBR 26.14, -10.48, -28.62%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus
    ServiceNow (NOW 417.49, +51.08, +13.94%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line
    Credit Suisse (CS 4.2400, -0.55, -11.48%): reports Q3 results; beats on revs; provides outlook; unveils new strategy; it is nearing sale of its securitized-products group to Apollo Global Management (APO) and PIMCO, according to WSJ
    Wolfspeed (WOLF 79.15, -27.29, -25.64%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

    #46535
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 356 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value.

    #46536
    Truman
    Participant

    Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the the third quarter (consensus 2.3%). The GDP Price Deflator, meanwhile, stepped down to 4.1% (consensus 5.3%) from 9.0% in the second quarter.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it ends a two-quarter streak of negative GDP prints. It also suggests the economy held up well in the third quarter as it started to acclimate to rising interest rates. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased a solid 3.3%.

    #46537
    Truman
    Participant

    Initial claims for the week ending October 22 increased by 3,000 to 217,000 (consensus 220,000). Continuing claims for the week ending October 15 increased by 55,000 to 1.438 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that the initial claims data suggest the labor market continues to hold up well, which of course is something that will continue to draw the Fed’s attention.

    #46538
    Truman
    Participant

    September durable goods orders increased 0.4% month-over-month (consensus +0.6%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%).

    The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed some softening in business spending, which was evident in the 0.7% decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft.

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