Traders Market Weekly: MAR19-25 — Some Sheep may be Sheared

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  • #34853
    Truman
    Participant

    -Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.6% (+0.2% for the week)
    Germany’s DAX: +0.9% (-0.2% for the week)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2% (+1.1% for the week)
    France’s CAC 40: +0.8% (-0.2% for the week)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.7% (+1.5% for the week)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.3% (-0.9% for the week)

    #34854
    Truman
    Participant

    Germany’s March Ifo Business Climate Index 90.8 (expected 94.2; prior 98.5)
    UK’s February Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (expected +0.6%; prior +1.9%) and +7.0% yr/yr (expected +7.8%; prior +9.4%); March GfK Consumer Confidence -31 (expected -30; prior -26)
    Spain’s Q4 GDP +2.2% qtr/qtr (expected +2.0%; prior +2.6%) and +5.5% yr/yr (expected +5.2%; prior +3.5%); PPI +40.7% yr/yr (prior +35.7%)
    Italy’s March Business Confidence 110.3 (expected 111.7; prior 112.9) and March Consumer Confidence 100.8 (expected 108.3; prior 112.4)

    #34855
    Truman
    Participant

    Some semblance of an ECB put could be in the mix after ECB member Schnabel said the bank would reconsider plan to end bond purchases this summer if the war in Ukraine triggered a deep recession in the eurozone.

    #34856
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s March Tokyo CPI +1.3% yr/yr (prior +1.0%) and Tokyo Core CPI +0.8% yr/yr (expected +0.4%; prior +0.5%)
    Singapore’s February Industrial Production +17.6% yr/yr (expected +6.3%; prior +2.4%)

    #34857
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -6.0
    10 yr Note: 2.350%
    USD/JPY: 121.59 -0.77
    EUR/USD: 1.1002 +0.0005
    Europe: FTSE: -0.1% DAX: +0.2% CAC: +0.2%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -2.5% Shanghai: -1.2% Nikkei: +0.1%
    Gold (1954.80 -7.40) Silver (25.82 -0.11) Crude (109.63 -2.71)

    #34858
    Truman
    Participant

    The global equity markets are mixed heading into the close of the week. S&P Futures are trading around the flat line near the 4512 area. The market has lacked direction as it’s traded back and forth across the neutral zone several times throughout the session. The range saw a high of 4527.25 and a low of 4500.25.

    In Asia, China dropped over 1% while Japan rose marginally. The Shanghai saw a tight range for the first couple hours but sellers took control thereafter with the technology sector leading the way lower. In Japan, the Nikkei’s winning streak extended to nine and is the longest since September 2019. Metals and Mining were among the best performers with stocks such as Pacific Metals and Sumitomo Metal Mining rising 3-6%.

    In Europe, the major bourses are lacking luster. German IFO offered a mixed read with two out of the three components missing expectations. The UK consumer picture took a step back in February with Core Retail Sales falling 0.7% while analysts expected an increase of 0.5%.

    #34859
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P 500 futures 0.5% above fair value; Nasdaq 100 futures 0.4% above fair value; DJIA futures 0.6% above fair value

    Key factors driving the futures market:
    S&P 500 reclaiming a position above its 200-day moving average (4477) yesterday without much difficulty
    Continued strength in the mega-cap stocks
    Appeal of equities as an inflation hedge
    Momentum
    The US and EU reportedly reached an agreement that provides for increased supply of LNG from the U.S. that will enable Europe to cut its dependency on Russia
    Tokyo March CPI hit a six-year high (+1.3% yr/yr)
    FAA tells Boeing (BA) that certification of 737 MAX 10 may not happen by year end, according to Reuters
    Cannabis stocks jump amid hope that legislation for federal legalization could be passed soon in Congress, although betting odds still remain very low, according to Predict It

    #34860
    Truman
    Participant

    Research calls of note:
    Upgrades: FTCH, RIO
    Downgrades: AXTA, CCL, FTNT, HNST, PRU, SWCH

    #34873

    Dow 34,861.24 153.30 0.44%
    S&P 500 4,543.06 22.90 0.51%
    Nasdaq 14,169.30 -22.54 -0.16%
    GlobalDow 4,104.78 21.28 0.52%
    Gold 1,954.90 -7.30 -0.37%
    Oil 112.63 0.29 0.26%

    #34874

    and Friday bonus of FAVs — YAY — it’s the weekend 🙂

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