Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and the Fed

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    Monday – December 5

    All week – Data reports are expected on airline traffic, used auto prices, and Nielsen data for food, beverage & household products.

    All day – The IPO lockup period expires for a block of shares of Phoenix Motor (PEV). Shares trade more than 70% below the IPO pricing level.

    All day – Oil prices could get a jolt following the OPEC+ meeting and the looming price cap on Russian oil.

    10:50 a.m. Intel Corporation (INTC) CFO David Zinsner will participate in a discussion on the company’s business and financial strategy at the UBS Global TMT Conference.


    Tuesday – December 6

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include AutoZone (AZO), MongoDB (MDB), and Guidewire Software (GWRE). Options trading is implying a double-digit share price move for Stitch Fix (SFIX) when it reports.

    All day – Glencore plc (OTCPK:GLCNF) will host its annual investor update presentation.
    All day – Virgin Orbit (VORB) Chief Executive Officer Dan Hart, will present at the Morgan Stanley Space Summit.

    9:00 a.m. Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) will host an Investor Day event.

    9:30 a.m. Vigil Neuroscience (VIGL) (VIGL) will host a key opinion leader event for the investment community. The event will provide further details on the ALSP disease background, epidemiology and patient journey. In addition, the Company plans to present the VGL101 Phase 2 trial design and objectives as well as interim MRI data from Illuminate, the ongoing natural history study.

    10:00 a.m. Norfolk Southern (NSC) will hold an investor day event.

    11:00 a.m. Candel Therapeutics (CADL) will host a virtual Research and Development Day. The event will provide an extensive overview of the company’s viral immunotherapy approach and oncology-focused pipeline, with new data being presented from its phase 2 clinical trial of CAN-2409 in combination with anti-PD-1 agents in patients with stage III/IV non-small cell lung cancer.

    11:10 a.m. Netflix (NFLX) Co-CEO and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos will present at the UBS Global TMT Conference.
    12:00 p.m. The EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook.

    2:00 p.m. Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) will host a webcast investor presentation. Shares of BBW have rallied after similar events in the past.


    Wednesday – December 7

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Brown-Forman (BF.A), Campbell Soup (CPB), and GameStop (GME). Options trading is implying double-digit share price moves for Rent the Runway (RENT) and HashiCorp (HCP) after they report.

    All day – Shareholders with InterPrivate II Acquisition Corp. (IPVA) will meet to vote on the deal to take global carsharing marketplace Getaround public in a SPAC deal. Getaround believes its digital carsharing marketplace is well positioned to continue to disrupt the traditional car ownership and transportation paradigm.
    All day – Lowe’s (LOW) will hold an analyst & investor conference.
    All day – Southwest Airlines (LUV) will hold an investor day event. The airline company jolted investors last year at the event with its guidance.
    All day – Healthcare companies due to present trial data at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium include AstraZeneca PLC (AZN), Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA), Anixa Biosciences (ANIX), and Context Therapeutics (CNTX).

    9:00 a.m. Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) will host the first Investor Day in the company’s history.

    11:00 a.m. CytoDyn (OTCQB:CYDY) will host a virtual R&D update. Company management and members of the Scientific Advisory Board will provide an overview and update on the R&D and clinical development strategy and activities.

    1:00 p.m. International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) will host its first Investor Day since CEO Frank Clyburn and CFO Glenn Richter took over. Bank of America has the event circled as a potential share price catalyst with 2022 guidance expected to be met.

    5:00 p.m. GameStop (GME) will hold its earnings call. The retailer is not expected to post a quarterly profit, but the update on holiday sales expectations and the recent iOS launch of an NFT/Web3 wallet could be catalysts.


    Thursday – December 8

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Costco (COST), Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), Ciena (CIEN), and Vail Resorts (MTN). Options trading is implying a big share price move for DocuSign (DOCU) after it reports. The tech stock rallied 11% after its last earnings report dropped. Citi has circled Ciena as an earnings reporter that could disappoint.

    All day – Disney (DIS) will introduce its much-anticipated ad-supported subscription offering in the U.S. With the launch, a new and comprehensive slate of subscription plans will be made available across Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, and the Disney Bundle. Analysts expect the launch to add pressure for competing streaming services. Per data from Bank of America, Amazon Prime (AMZN), Paramount (PARA) and Netflix (NFLX) saw big jumps in app downloads over the last three months, while HBO Max, Starz, Epix, Showtime and Hulu saw drops in downloads.

    All day – A busy day of investor events includes the Edwards Lifesciences (EW) Investor Conference, the MoneyLion (ML) Investor Day, 10x Genomics Investor Day (TXG), a special Rogers (ROG) investor conference call, the Westport Fuel Systems (WPRT) Capital Markets Day, an Exxon Mobil (XOM) corporate plan update, and the GE Healthcare (GE) Investor Day 2022.

    12:00 p.m. Traders will be watching a closed door FTC meeting amid speculation the Microsoft (MSFT) acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) could be a topic.


    Friday – December 9

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Li Auto (LI) and Johnson Outdoors (JOUT).

    8:30 a.m. The producer price index report for November will be released to give investors a fresh update on inflation trends. Headline PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% during the month to outpace the +0.2% mark in October, but still come in lower than some of the hot readings during the summer. PPI food inflation is forecast to moderate from the 0.6% month-over-month pace in October due to a moderation in commodity prices but still remain in positive territory.

    12:00 p.m. Shareholders with Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) will vote on the Rio Tinto deal.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+4.5%) setting the pace.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.2%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +4.5%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +1.8%
    India’s Sensex: -0.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.6%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%


    Investor sentiment was boosted by reports of more loosening of coronavirus restrictions in China.
    Foxconn reportedly expects full production to resume in late December or early January.
    The most recent reserve requirement ratio cut from the PBoC took effect today.
    South Korea expects that its exports for 2022 will exceed $680 bln, representing a new record.
    China’s November Caixin Services PMI 46.7 (expected 48.0; last 48.4)
    Japan’s November Services PMI 50.3 (expected 50.0; last 50.0)
    India’s November Nikkei Services PMI 56.4 (expected 55.4; last 55.1)
    Singapore’s October Retail Sales 0.1% m/m (last 3.2%); 10.4% yr/yr (last 11.3%)
    Hong Kong’s November Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (last 49.3)
    Australia’s November Services PMI 47.6 (expected 47.2; last 49.3) and AIG Construction Index 48.2 (last 43.3). Q3 Company Gross Operating Profits -12.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 7.8%). Q3 Business Inventories 1.7% qtr/qtr (last 0.5%)


    Major European indices trade in mixed fashion.

    Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.6%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.4%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.6%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: UNCH
    Spain’s IBEX 35: UNCH


    November Services PMI readings from major European economies remained in contractionary territory while Spain’s Services PMI returned into expansion, rising to 51.2 from 49.7.
    European Central Bank policymaker Makhlouf said that the ECB should announce at least a 50-bps rate hike at the conclusion of the December meeting. ECB policymaker Centeno said that the inflation peak could be reached in Q4 while France’s Finance Minister Le Maire said that reaching the inflationary peak could take “some months.”
    S&P affirmed France’s AA rating but lowered the outlook to Negative from Stable. Meanwhile, Moody’s affirmed France’s AA rating and maintained a Stable outlook. Fitch affirmed Spain’s A rating with a Stable outlook.
    Eurozone’s October Retail Sales -1.8% m/m (expected -1.7%; last 0.8%); -2.7% yr/yr (expected -2.6%; last -0.6%). November Services PMI 48.5 (expected 48.6; last 48.6). December Sentix Investor Confidence -21.0 (expected -27.6; last -30.9)
    U.K.’s November Services PMI 48.8, as expected (last 48.8)
    Germany’s November Services PMI 46.1 (expected 46.4; last 46.5)
    France’s November Services PMI 49.3 (expected 49.4; last 51.7)
    Italy’s November Services PMI 49.5 (expected 48.3; last 46.4)
    Spain’s November Services PMI 51.2 (expected 50.5; last 49.7)


    MGM Resorts (MGM 38.06, +0.98, +2.6%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist
    Starbucks (SBUX 103.32, -1.73, -1.7%): downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
    United Airlines (UAL 44.29, +0.40, +0.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
    Tesla (TSLA 185.89, -8.97, -4.6%): will have 20% lower Model Y output at Shanghai plant in December, according to Reuters
    Live Nation (LYV 73.05, -0.87, -1.2%) : Taylor Swift fans file lawsuit against Ticket Master for presale ticket issues, according to Verge
    Delta (DAL 35.74, +0.03, +0.1%): reaches tentative agreement with pilots union, according to CNBC


    The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 49 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 167 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.


    U.S. Treasuries sit on their lows after widening their initial losses. Treasuries began extending their losses immediately after the cash start, sliding to fresh lows after the recent release of better than expected Factory Orders for October and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November.

    The long bond outperformed at the start, but it gave into the pressure once the cash session got going. Equities are facing early pressure with the S&P 500 (-0.9%) trading a bit ahead of the Nasdaq (-1.0%).

    2-yr: +6 bps to 4.35%
    3-yr: +7 bps to 4.08%
    5-yr: +11 bps to 3.78%
    10-yr: +10 bps to 3.60%
    30-yr: +8 bps to 3.64%


    Market participants are digesting a Wall Street Journal report indicating the Fed could raise rates above 5% next year due to wage growth and inflation.

    Treasury yields moved noticeably higher around the time that the stock market opened. The 2-yr note yield, at 4.29% earlier, sits at 4.35% now. The 10-yr note yield, at 3.51% earlier, sits at 3.60% now.

    Dow -237.56 at 34197.66, Nasdaq -120.56 at 11280.79, S&P -39.81 at 4032.31


    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November increased to 56.5% (consensus 53.5%) from 54.4% in October.

    The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The November reading marks the 30th straight month of growth for the services sector.

    The key takeaway from the report is that business activity for the non-manufacturing sector, which comprises the largest swath of U.S. economic activity, strengthened in November, aiding the view that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.


    Factory orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0% month-over-month in October (consensus 0.7%) following an unrevised 0.3% increase in September.

    Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 0.7% after increasing 0.3% in September.

    The key takeaway from the report is the quick rebound seen in business spending, evidenced by the 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, and the sizable jump in shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft (+1.5%) that will compute favorably for Q4 GDP forecasts.

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