Traders Market Weekly: November 7 – 13 2021

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 48 total)
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  • #29014

    [color=purple][i][b]Where have we been and where are we … wishing a safe & good week to all
    Stock market is at record levels with friendly forces at FED & TRILLIONS of new $$$
    while the “real” economy has issues in various sectors, esp. inflation/debt
    the herd & wall street bulls will continue to go for the SWEET FEED :)[/b][/i][/color]



    Market Updates

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +4.0
    10 yr Note: 1.485%
    USD/JPY: 113.43 +0.03
    EUR/USD: 1.1565 -0.0003
    Europe: FTSE: -0.1% DAX: -0.1% CAC: +0.1%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -0.4% Shanghai: +0.2% Nikkei: -0.4%
    Gold (1818.50 +1.70) Silver (24.28 +0.12) Crude (82.34 +1.07)


    Overnight Summary — World markets sleeping in

    The global equity markets are off to quiet starts to the week. S&P Futures are up about three points to trade around the 4693 area. The market saw a quick dip on the open that was immediately bought but slowly migrated down to retest the low. Spoos ultimately put in the bottom print at 4676.25. Since then, the S&P has seen a steady upward move and is trading just off the high of 4694.50.

    In Asia, China closed up marginally while Japan slipped 0.4%. In China, the Shanghai stayed afloat after better than expected export data. Exports rose 27.1% in October, topping the analyst consensus of 24.5%. In Japan, the Nikkei was weighed down by market heavyweight, Softbank, which dropped nearly 1% in advance of its earnings release after the close.

    In Europe, the major bourses are doing little more than treading water. Energy names are rebounding with BP and Royal Dutch Shell up 1-2% on the back of crude oil’s burst back over $82.
    Market Updates


    Gapping down

    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    VSAT -1%, THS -0.8% (also exploring strategic alternatives to maximize value)

    Other news:

    JOBS -31.5% (announces update on going-private transaction)
    CPLG -11.4% (to be acquired through a joint venture between affiliates of Highgate and Cerberus Capital Management, L.P.; to receive $15.65 per share in cash)
    TOST -4.5% (announces partial early lock-up release)
    TSLA -4.3% (Elon Musk’s Twitter poll says he should sell 10% of his stock; he says he will abide by the results of this poll)
    ETON -4.1% (receives FDA approval for EPRONTIA)
    PTON -4% (reports it will freeze hiring, according to CNBC)
    SGRY -2.1% (commenced an underwritten public offering of 5,000,000 shares of its common stock)
    LQDA -1.7% (receives tentative approval for YUTREPIA from FDA)
    VRRM -1.4% (files for 19,999,967 share common stock offering; also files for 13,207,821 share common stock offering by selling shareholder)

    Analyst comments:

    BLUE -2.1% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
    APTV -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler)
    DNUT -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist)


    Gapping up
    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    AXSM +13.1%, TTD +10.5%, COTY +6.7%, HLIO +6.1%, VTRS +5.4%, RETA +5%, PRVA +3.9%, TSEM +2.8%, VAC +2.6%, EDIT +2.4%, USFD +1.3%, BKI +1%, .

    Other news:

    AUTL +27.3% (Blackstone (BX) to invest up to $250 mln in Autolus Therapeutics to develop obe-cel in adult Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia)
    RDHL +7.5% (RedHill Biopharma and South Korea’s Kukbo Co. announce a strategic investment of up to $10 million in RedHill)
    BBIG +6.5% (filed Form 10 registration statement in connection with the planned spin-off of its subsidiary Cryptyde)
    ENDP +4.2% (signs agreement with Premier to supply VASOSTRICT)
    ELMS +4% (intention to move ahead with plans to launch the Urban Utility vehicle after the ELMS Board approved production)
    MTL +3.3% (reports supplying ~22,000 tonnes of rails and other steel rolls for construction of Moscow Metro’s Bolshaya Koltsevaya Line)
    CMMB +3.3% (announced that Donald R. Marvin has been named Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer)
    EXP +2% (files mixed securities shelf offering )
    REGN +1.9% (reports new Phase 3 data for REGEN-COV showing long-term protection against COVID-19)
    HVT +1.8% (authorizes special cash dividend, also approves new $25 mln share repurchase authorization)
    KALV +1.8% (presents data demonstrating KVD900 achieves rapid exposure and improves outcomes as oral on-demand treatment of HAE)
    CSIQ +1.6% (awarded 52 MWp for the solar PV project Caracoli in the recent public auction by Colombia’s Ministry of Energy)
    ASTR +1.5% (files application with FCC requesting authority to launch and operate satellite system)
    WRB +1.3% (declares special cash dividend of $1.00/share)
    GOL +1.1% (reports October traffic results)
    TEVA +1% (presents AJOVY data)

    Analyst comments:

    ACEL +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
    BTRS +3.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
    ACMR +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company)
    APPN +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist)
    AVB +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)



    JPMorgan upgraded Tenaris (TS) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $33, up from $23. The firm notes the upgrade reflects stronger than anticipated conditions in the OCTG market, which is driving a step change increase in the firm’s 2022-23 estimates well above consensus levels.

    Raymond James upgraded KVH Industries (KVHI) to Strong Buy from Outperform with a $16 price target. The firm notes Q3 was better than expected, and Prentiss feels now is an opportune buying opportunity given end markets recovering from COVID-19, the near-term and long-term benefits of serving the autonomous trucking and other vehicle markets, and a stock buffeted by choppy trading but more inexpensive now after non-fundamental buying and then selling pressure. The firm adds demand and backlog are historically strong as markets recover from COVID.

    Jefferies upgraded Fair Isaac (FICO) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $522, up from $518. The firm argues that investor concerns around Scores’ pricing power and Software’s lack of growth should prove transient. The firm sees “two ways to win” as the former business is protected by the combination of relative value, high switching costs, proven track record, and a strong brand while the latter is positioned for accelerating growth as it transitions to a platform SaaS model.



    Northcoast downgraded Shake Shack (SHAK) to Neutral from Buy with no price target after Q3 results and Q4 guidance that the firm calls “softer than expected” and prompted the firm to lower the firm’s sales and earnings outlook for Q4 and 2022. The firm’s lower rating reflects both the rapid rise in share price last week as well as the firm’s short-term concerns with the pace of recovery and conversion of sales to earnings.

    JMP Securities downgraded Palomar (PLMR) to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm states that the firm remains impressed with management’s execution of its business plan and believe Palomar has significant runway for strong growth and returns for years to come, but the firm also believes that further upside in the shares is not significant enough above current levels to continue to support the higher rating. The firm adds that the firm would likely turn more bullish should Palomar shares come under undue pressure.

    Keefe Bruyette downgraded Silvergate Capital (SI) to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $200. The stock closed Friday down 80c to $215.16. Since October 1, 2020, the firm notes Silvergate is up 1,425% as the bank has seen massive growth in its crypto banking platform. More recently, the firm notes optimism around higher interest rates and the potential stablecoin issuance opportunity has propelled the stock to all-time highs. While the firm believes additional upside could exist, the firm says Silvergate’s significant premium valuation suggests a more balanced upside/downside scenario from here.


    Citi re-initiated coverage of Apria (APR) with a Buy rating and $43 price target.

    Following a period of restriction on the company, the firm’s views are largely unchanged as the firm sees Apria being well positioned to benefit from care shifting towards the home as one of the largest providers of home health durable medical equipment.

    KeyBanc initiated coverage of AvidXchange (AVDX) with an Overweight rating and $30 price target.

    AvidXchange’s cloud software automates mid-market backoffice B2B/AP processes, the firm notes, adding that mid-market B2B is an early stage market with only about 50% payments digitization. The firm believes compelling network effects, a fragmented mid-market accounting ecosystem, and multi-vertical domain expertise create a “formidable competitive moat.” The firm sees multiple initiatives could offer upside, including new logos, payments digitization, supplier financing, new verticals, and strategic M&A, which underlie the firm’s preference for increased investment.

    RBC Capital initiated coverage of GitLab (GTLB) with a Sector Perform rating and $140 price target.

    The firm notes the company’s platform approach allows developers to build and deploy secure applications at a rapid pace, which is “increasingly important” in an app-driven economy. The firm adds however that much of the optimism is priced into the stock’s valuation of enterprise value at 47-times expected 2023 earnings, which makes it the second highest valued software stock on that basis.


    [size=5][color=green][b]Dow 36,432.22 104.27 0.29%
    S&P 500 4,701.70 4.17 0.09%
    Nasdaq 15,982.36 10.77 0.07%
    GlobalDow 4,161.14 8.56 0.21%
    Gold 1,826.00 9.20 0.51%
    Oil 82.21 0.94 1.16%[/b][/color][/size]

    an excellent INFRASTRUCTURE tune – lol 🙂


    Market Updates

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +1.0
    10 yr Note: 1.470%
    USD/JPY: 112.87 -0.36
    EUR/USD: 1.1597 +0.0009
    Europe: FTSE: +0.1% DAX: +0.2% CAC: +0.1%
    Asia: Hang Seng: +0.2% Shanghai: +0.2% Nikkei: -0.8%
    Gold (1827.30 -0.70) Silver (24.50 -0.05) Crude (82.65 +0.68)


    Overnight Summary — World markets lacking luster

    The global equity markets are off to another quiet start. S&P Futures are up about two points to trade around the 4696 area. The market was under pressure throughout the Asian session and put in the low at 4680.00. After testing that zone a couple of times, the S&P was able to find stability to push to higher ground. Spoos are currently just off the high of 4697.50.

    In Asia, China closed 0.2% higher while Japan dropped 0.8%. In China, the Shanghai saw selling during the early portion of the session. Reports surfaced mid-day that Evergrande managed to raise enough capital to make a debt interest payment right before a deadline. In Japan, the Nikkei fell for the third consecutive day. The strength in the yen hindered export stocks.

    In Europe, the major bourses are edging higher. Markets may be held in check by weaker than expected export data out of Germany. The September print saw a fall of 0.7% while analysts forecasted a rise of 0.5%. Bayer is up about 2% after reporting better than expected third quarter results and raising its fiscal year outlook.
    Asia: Hang Seng: +0.2% Shanghai: +0.2% Nikkei: -0.8%
    Gold (1827.30 -0.70) Silver (24.50 -0.05) Crude (82.65 +0.68)


    Gapping down

    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    AMRS -26.2% (also to offer $400 mln in convertible senior notes), SDC -24.4%, FRPT -14.9%, WPRT -14%, NVTA -10.8%, LFST -10.4%, DDD -8.4%, TPIC -8.2% (also announces up to $600 mln capital investment from Oaktree), MWA -8.1%, NVRO -8.1%, TRIP -7.4% (also CEO and co-founder Stephen Kaufer to step down in 2022), SANM -7.2%, ALLT -6.8%, LMND -6.3% (also MILE to be acquired by LMND for $500 mln in stock), OSH -6.2%, CBT -6%, HAE -5.8%, SEAS -5.5%, PYPL -5.3%, AMC -5%, MRC -4.9%, IIVI -4.9%, EPZM -4.2%, EBIX -3.9%, JKHY -3.8%, NCMI -3.6%, CSII -3.6%, DMS -3.6%, FOLD -3.1%, PLTR -3%, DOOR -2.5%, PRTY -2.3%, PRAA -2.2%, BLDP -1.9%, MIDD -1.8%, ALIT -1.7%, CEVA -1.6%, ASX -1.2%
    Other news:

    CMPS -32.3% (topline results from groundbreaking phase IIb trial of investigational COMP360 psilocybin therapy for treatment-resistant depression)
    APR -8.8% (stock offering)
    ALKS -7.9% (announces receipt of notices of partial termination from Janssen Pharma)
    DSEY -7.7% (stock offering)
    TALO -5.4% (prices secondary offering of 6 mln shares of common stock)
    MASS -5% (stock offering)
    ALXO -5% (reports updated data from ongoing clinical trial of Evorpacept)
    PING -3.9% (stock offering)
    HOOD -3.5% (unauthorized third party obtained access to personal info)
    FA -3% (stock offering)
    CLPT -2.8% (partner Neurona Therapeutics receives IND clearance for initiation of Phase 1/2 trial evaluating NRTX-1001)
    KDNY -2.2% (stock offering)
    CYRX -2.2% (announces direct placement of stock; also to offer $300 mln of convertible senior notes)
    HCIC -2.2% (terminates merger agreement with Plus)
    PLYA -2.2% (stock offering)
    KNBE -1.9% (stock offering)
    SITM -1.5% (stock offering)
    EWCZ -1.3% (stock offering)
    IEA -1.1% (stock offering)

    Analyst comments:

    CNDT -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham)


    Gapping up

    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    NEWR +26.9%, RBLX +24.7%, TDUP +20.2%, REAL +14.4%, FIVN +9.1%, MRTX +8.8%, TUFN +8%, ZNGA +6.2%, ROVR +5.8%, ATCO +5.7%, IGT +5.5%, ECVT +4.7%, BNTX +4.7%, IPAR +4.1%, CANO +4.1%, TREX +3.3%, WRK +3.2%, ADT +2.8%, FSK +2.6%, PRIM +2.4%, HUYA +2.4%, BEKE +2.3%, HGV +2.3%, SQSP +1.9%, NOVT +1.9%, NABL +1.8%, VUZI +1.7%, CXW +1.7%, ACAD +1.7%, MSGE +1.4%, TWO +1.1%, DHI +1.1%, NVEI +1%, CAH +0.9%
    Other news:

    EVGO +29.6% (EVgo Inc. and General Motors (GM) announced an expansion of their fast charging infrastructure build-out collaboration currently underway across the U.S.)
    PVG +16% (to be acquired by Newcrest Mining)
    LHDX +15.1% (announces that its COVID-19 Test Kit is available for purchase by Amazon)
    VGR +14.4% (Douglas Elliman to file registration statement in connection with planned spin-off from Vector Group)
    GE +7.1% (plans to form three public companies focused on growth sectors of aviation, healthcare, and energy)
    MILE +6.6% (MILE to be acquired by LMND for $500 mln in stock)
    THC +5.1% (to acquire SurgCenter Development for $1.2 bln)
    MPAA +3.7% (D&V Electronics selected for NASA’s Dragonfly mission)
    UEC +3.3% (acquires Uranium One Americas)
    BKI +3.2% (Servicing Digital solution to be offered to WFC mortgage customers)
    ADT +2.8% (agreement to acquire Sunpro Solar)
    SDIG +2.5% (stock offering)
    DNA +2.1% (Ginkgo Bioworks and Synlogic (SYBX) announce nomination of SYNB1353 for the treatment of homocystinuria)
    DASH +1.7% (NYC law will require delivery services to pay for costs related to driver accidents, according to NY Post)
    TCAC +1.7% ( enters SPAC merger agreement with springbig; to trade under ticker “SBIG”, deal includes $13 mln PIPE investment)
    EVLV +1.4% (partners with Butler University)
    VMEO +1.1% (reports Oct metrics)

    Analyst comments:

    EFTR +9.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
    TGLS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities)
    FATE +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
    CNK +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)
    AQB +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright)
    DCP +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)



    Raymond James upgraded Prospect Capital (PSEC) to Market Perform from Underperform without a price target. The firm notes Prospect’s Q1 earnings beat consensus, and NAV per share growth was above average vs. the BDC group. The firm sees a risk/reward in-line with peers at current levels.

    Guggenheim upgraded J.M. Smucker (SJM) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $146, up from $136, telling investors that the firm is starting to see the positive outcome from multiple changes undertaken in the last two years that is bringing an improved operational focus. The firm thinks growth is getting more favorable in both coffee and pet and sees Uncrustables as an underappreciated growth driver, while arguing Smucker has built more margin protection from cost inflation than food peers.

    Wolfe Research upgraded TE Connectivity (TEL) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $190, up from $148. The firm’s deep-dive on the company’s growth drivers provided increased conviction that TE is poised to sustain organic growth at or above its historical average. The firm believes this should support very strong earnings through 2025. The firm adds that TE Connectivity trades at a discount to competitors Amphenol (APH) and Aptiv (APTV) and that the company warrants a premium versus the S&P 500 Index.



    Truist downgraded Nevro (NVRO) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, down from $165, after its wider than expected Q3 earnings miss. The firm notes the company has seen a positive early contribution from its Painful Diabetic Neuropathy business, but there is no clear sign around the timing of recovery in its spinal cord stimulation segment, and that lack of clarity makes it difficult to see upside to the current share price.

    Citi downgraded Velodyne Lidar (VLDR) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $8, down from $17. The firm cites the weaker Q3 results and 2021 guide as well as a material cut to the company’s estimated new business opportunity outlook for the downgrade. Though the firm views the CEO hire as a positive, the firm believes the gross margin turnaround could take some time to play out, and the reduced new business outlook might also raise questions about Velodyne’s market share and overall competitiveness. The firm thinks the stock could stay range-bound over the near-term until growth and margin visibility improves.

    JP Morgan downgraded LifeStance Health (LTHM) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $12, down from $24. While the Q3 results came in above expectations, the firm notes LifeStance now expects fiscal 2021 revenue to be towards the lower end of the guidance range and it provided a disappointing preliminary outlook for 2022. The firm expects LifeStance to be a “show-me story” over the next few quarters and the firm awaits improvement in clinician retention rates.

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