Traders Market Weekly: Geopolitics, ECB and Apple

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  • #42705
    Truman
    Participant

    Monday – August 29

    Options trading volume has jumped on Avaya Holdings Corp. (AVYA) and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) again.

    Watch for some increased interest in Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) with the September 6 shareholder meeting approaching at which shareholders will vote on whether to delay the deadline for completing the SPAC merger with the entity that owns the Truth Social app. The company could extend it by a year to September 8, 2023.

    All week – The conference schedule includes the Jefferies 2022 Semiconductor Conference, the Credit Suisse 10th China Internet Conference, and the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference.

    All day – NASA’s uncrewed Artemis I mission could launch during a two-hour window scheduled from 8:33 a.m. ET to 10:33 a.m. There are backup launch windows for the mission to the moon on September 2 and September 5. The ultimate goal for the Artemis program is to send missions to beyond the moon into deep space. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is the prime contractor on the Orion spacecraft, while NASA’s prime contractors for the rocket launch system include Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD), Boeing (NYSE:BA), and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Terran Orbital Corporation (LLAP) will have its lunar imaging spacecraft as a secondary payload on the mission.

    All day – Nasdaq (NDAQ) begins trading on a split-adjusted basis following the 3-for-1 stock split.

    All day – VMWare (VMW) will hold a three-day global multi-cloud event called VMware Explore 2022. The event will feature a variety of sessions spanning key technology themes and industries, as well keynote addresses by top execs.

    7:00 p.m. AMD (AMD) will hold a livestream premiere to unveil next generation AMD PC products. CEO Dr. Lisa Su and other top AMD executives will present details on the latest “Zen 4” architecture that powers upcoming AMD Ryzen processors and the all new AM5 platform built around the latest technologies including DDR5 and PCIe5. Shares of AMD have rallied after similar events in the past.

    #42706
    Truman
    Participant

    Tuesday – August 30

    All day – Hempacco is expected to start trading on August 30. The company sells hemp-based smokable products to consumers in the United States. Hempacco said it plans on offering 3M shares priced between $4 and $6 per share, which would raise $15M if priced at the midpoint.

    All day – There is a DSMB review on BioCardia’s (BCDA) CardiAMP for heart failure. Shares of BioCardia have soared in the past off positive CardiAMP developments.

    7:00 a.m. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will speak in person on inflation and the economy before the Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce, in Huntington, West Virginia.

    8:00 a.m. Best Buy (BBY) will hold its earnings call. Analysts have circled the call as a potential share price mover with the early outlook for the back-to-school and holiday quarters seen as key.

    3:00 p.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in moderated discussion before the WSJ Live Q&A event.

    Postmarket – Chewy (CHWY) will report earnings. Options trading implies a share price move of around 15% after the numbers drop. Chewy soared 24% the last time it reported earnings.

    5:30 p.m. HP Inc. (HPQ) will hold its earnings conference call. Ahead of the report, JPMorgan warned pricing weakness could hurt the company’s outlook.

    #42707
    Truman
    Participant

    Wednesday – August 31

    All day – The MSCI quarterly rebalance will take place after the closing bell. Wells Fargo says to watch for elevated trading volume in newly promoted Carlisle Companies (CSL), Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI), and Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) with their promotion to standard from small cap status – meanwhile Carvana (CVNA), Peloton Interactive (PTON), and Upstart Holdings (UPST) will be demoted to small cap status and could see lower volume.

    All day – Cenntro Electric Group (CENN) will participate in the Annual Sustainable Fleet Show with top execs on an alternative fuel panel and the company’s vehicles taking part of Ride and Drive events throughout the conference. Shares of Cenntro Electric Group gained edged higher on Wednesday after the EV tech firm announced that its first Logistar 100 electric van has rolled off the production line, with delivery scheduled to begin in Sep 2022.

    All day – Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) will hold a conference call to provide a business and strategic update.

    All day – Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) will begin three days of maintenance at the Portovaya compressor station for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that links Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea. Russia’s Gazprom has claimed faulty or delayed equipment as the main reason for a reduction of deliveries via Nord Stream.

    9:00 a.m. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce Government Affairs Breakfast Series.

    9:00 a.m. Allstate Corporation (ALL) will host a conference call focusing on Allstate’s investments strategy and operational topics.

    Postmarket – Stocks due to report earnings with double-digit share price moves implied by options trading include Samsara (IOT), C3.Ai (AI), Credo Technology (CRDO), and Okta (OKTA). Of the four, Credo had the biggest move off its last earnings report with a 26% jump.

    #42708
    Truman
    Participant

    Thursday – September 1

    All day – Monthly data reports will get a harder look than normal from investors looking for cracks in consumer demand. In particular, watch Chinese automakers Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO), and XPeng (XPEV) with their deliveries report, Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) with its update on daily average revenue trades, and traffic reports across the airline sector that include guidance revisions.

    All day – The regulatory review in the U.K. on the Microsoft (MSFT) deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) expires.

    All day – RemeGenix (OTC:RGXX) will report encore data from its first human study of RGX-111 for Mucopolysaccharidosis. Shares of RemeGenix have been volatile in the past after RGX-111 updates.

    Premarket – Stocks due to report earnings with double-digit share price moves implied by options trading include Clearsign Technologies (CLIR), Hashicorp (HCP), and PagerDuty (PD). Hashicorp was the most volatile of the three after its last earnings report with a 18% decline.

    #42709
    Truman
    Participant

    Friday – September 2

    8:00 a.m. The European producer price index release could create some shockwaves. PPI is forecast to be up 1.0% on a month-to-month basis in a slight moderation from the 1.1% pace the month prior. However, the projected 36% year-over-year jump in PPI could grab some attention.

    8:30 a.m. The U.S. jobs report for August is expected to show 300K jobs adds for the month and an unemployment rate that holds steady at 3.5%. Average hourly earnings are seen moderating to a +0.4% pace from +0.5% in July.

    #42710
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -2.7%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.7%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%
    India’s Sensex: -1.5%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -2.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -2.1%

    #42711
    Truman
    Participant

    Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said at the Jackson Hole Symposium that monetary easing needs to continue until wages and prices rise in a sustainable manner.
    Officials from South Korea and China have reportedly agreed to establish a supply chain council. China is reportedly tightening coronavirus restrictions in Hebei province.
    China’s July Industrial Profit -1.1% YTD (last 1.0%) o Japan’s June Leading Index 100.9 (last 101.2) and Coincident Indicator 3.7% m/m (last 4.1%)
    Australia’s July Retail Sales 1.3% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%)

    #42712
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade sharply lower while the U.K.’s FTSE is closed for a bank holiday.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.9%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.9%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: CLOSED
    France’s CAC 40: -1.3%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.8%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.0%

    #42713
    Truman
    Participant

    European Central Bank policymaker Schnabel repeated that inflation is at an uncomfortably high level and that central banks need to act forcefully to bring it down.
    Separately, ECB policymaker Kazaks said that 50- and 75-bps rate hikes should be discussed in September. France may implement a new tax on corporate profits.

    #42714
    Truman
    Participant

    Netflix (NFLX 220.53, -2.75, -1.23%): mulling $7-9 price tag for ad supported service, according to Bloomberg
    Catalent (CTLT 90.10, -9.60, -9.63%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 revs below consensus
    Pinduoduo (PDD 66.44, +8.87, +15.41%): reports Q2 results; beats on EPS and revs

    #42716

    ^^^^ +1s for several good insightful posts ahead … Stocks have recovered some
    as DOW is at -85 after Friday’s selloff … One cannot “FIGHT THE FED”
    as it’s likely more “pain” is ahead … esp. as “inflation reduction bill” and
    “college loan forgiveness bill” helps certain areas but may increase prices/taxes/debt
    rather than the sales pitch we currently hear – that everything will take care of itself.
    Hurricane season will soon return as AUGUST was almost silent … Key eye on New WAVES coming off Africa

    #42729

    Dow 32,099.05 -184.35 -0.57%
    S&P 500 4,030.64 -27.02 -0.67%
    Nasdaq 12,017.67 -124.04 -1.02%
    GlobalDow 3,591.18 -22.44 -0.62%
    Gold 1,749.50 -0.30 -0.02%
    Oil 96.91 3.85 4.14

    #42735
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    After-Hours

    DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) and International Game Technology (IGT) announce agreement in principle to settle Benson v. DoubleDown Interactive LLC, et. al. lawsuit; total of $415 million will be paid into a settlement fund… DDI up 4.1%; IGT up 0.1%
    Gambling.com (GAMB) reports Q2 results, revs up 53% yr/yr, reaffirms FY22 outlook… GAMB up 8.8%
    Lucid Group (LCID) files for $8 bln mixed securities shelf offering… LCID down 2.4%
    Zendesk (ZEN) confirms that it received unsolicited non-binding recapitalization proposal from Light Street Capital Management… ZEN down 0.1%

    #42736
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Fair Value for Tuesday, August 30th:

    S&P 500 FV: 4,031
    Nasdaq 100 FV: 12,493
    DJIA FV: 32,072

    #42737
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Upgrades:
    Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $17
    AstraZeneca (AZN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; tgt $75
    Envista (NVST) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $46
    Host Hotels (HST) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $21
    Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $17
    Downgrades:
    Aerie Pharma (AERI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt raised to $15.25
    Avalara (AVLR) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
    Choice Hotels (CHH) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $123
    Cooper (COO) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
    Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $10
    Dow (DOW) downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $45
    Hain Celestial (HAIN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Consumer Edge Research; tgt $23
    Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $11.50
    Life Storage (LSI) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $138
    LyondellBasell (LYB) downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $73
    Molecular Partners AG (MOLN) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at SVB Leerink; tgt lowered to $8
    Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $20
    Westlake Corporation (WLK) downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $90
    Others:
    Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen; tgt $25
    Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) resumed with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $20
    IGM Biosciences (IGMS) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $34
    Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $16.50
    Mondee Holdings (MOND) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $15
    Vigil Neuroscience (VIGL) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $24
    Vivid Seats (SEAT) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $10.50
    Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $45

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