Traders Market Weekly: Fed, Inflation and Profit Warnings

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 62 total)
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  • #43737

    Dow 30,961.82 -173.27 -0.56%
    S&P 500 3,901.35 -44.66 -1.13%
    Nasdaq 11,552.36 -167.32 -1.43%
    GlobalDow 3,486.69 -32.47 -0.92%
    Gold 1,673.50 -35.60 -2.08%
    Oil 84.97 -3.51 -3.97%
    BITCOIN 19,842

    But hopefully the RED SKIES will have a HAPPY ENDING down the road

    #43738

    and one of my FAVs as a bonus of good cheer 🙂

    #43747
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red.

    Only health care (+0.6%) and financials (+0.3%) could squeeze out a gain
    Health care sat atop the leaderboard thanks to Humana (HUM 497.24, +38.39, +8.4%), which traded up after raising its FY22 EPS guidance.

    Energy (-2.5%), utilities (-2.5%), and information technology (-2.4%)
    information technology was weighed down by Adobe (ADBE 309.13, -62.39, -16.8%) after participants reacted negatively to the company’s $20 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Figma.
    Energy stocks sold off as energy complex prices fell. WTI crude oil futures settled down 3.9% to $85.11/bbl and natural gas futures fell 8.6% to $8.31/mmbtu. These moves are being attributed to the news that a national railroad workers strike has been averted.

    #43748
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 1.7%; the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed down 0.8%; the S&P 500 closed down 1.1%.

    #43749
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Earnings/Guidance
    Adobe (ADBE) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
    Arconic (ARNC) lowers FY22 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect the impact of operational issues and the combination of demand declines and higher unhedged energy costs in Europe
    Humana (HUM) raises FY22 EPS guidance, introduces mid-term adjusted EPS target of $37.00 for FY25
    Southwest Air (LUV) provides Q3 guidance update; narrows operating revs
    Steel Dynamics (STLD) issues upside Q3 EPS guidance; expects earnings from steel fabrication operations to be meaningfully higher than Q2 results
    U.S. Steel (X) guides Q3 EPS in-line, with mid-point above consensus
    Vimeo (VMEO) reports August 2022 total sales +9% yr/yr, subscribers +1% yr/yr, ARPU +8% yr/yr

    #43750
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    After-Hours
    Bowlero (BOWL) reports JunQ results, beats on revs… BOWL up 6.0%
    FedEx (FDX) guides 1Q23 EPS well below consensus and guides Q2 EPS and revenue below consensus, citing global volume softness, particularly due to macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe; also withdraws FY23 earnings guidance… FDX down 15.1%
    Roblox (RBLX) reports August metrics – Daily active users were 59.9 million, up 24% yr/yr… RBLX down 2.0%
    Texas Instruments (TXN) raises its quarterly dividend 8% to $1.24/share, payable November 15; authorizes an additional $15 bln for share repurchases… TXN up 0.8%

    Fair Value for Friday, September 16th:
    S&P 500: 3,919
    Nasdaq 100: 12,002
    DJIA: 31,058

    #43751
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Commodities:

    Crude Oil -3.47 @ 85.11
    Nat Gas -0.78 @ 8.31
    Gold -34.20 @ 1674.30
    Silver -0.37 @ 19.20
    Copper -0.04 @ 3.48

    #43773
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.1% (-2.3% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.9% (-3.1% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -2.3% (-4.2% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: -1.8% (-1.6% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.8% (-0.1% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.5% (-2.3% for the week)

    #43774
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki spoke again about the potential for an intervention in the currency market.
    South Korea’s unemployment rate reached its lowest level in the 23-year history of the series.
    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said that rates are still too low at this time, adding that he sees “a few” rate hikes in the coming months. The RBA governor also said that inflation expectations for the mid-term are well anchored.
    China’s August Industrial Production 4.2% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 3.8%), August Fixed Asset Investment 5.8% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 5.7%), August Retail Sales 5.4% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 2.7%), August House Prices -1.3% yr/yr (last -0.9%), and August Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.4%; last 5.4%)
    South Korea’s August trade deficit $9.49 bln (last deficit of $9.47 bln). August Imports 28.2% yr/yr (last 25.6%) and Exports 6.6% yr/yr (last 15.9%). August Unemployment Rate 2.5% (last 2.9%). August Import Price Index 22.9% yr/yr (last 25.6%) and Export Price Index 13.4% yr/yr (last 15.9%)
    Singapore’s August trade surplus SGD3.755 bln (last SGD3.538 bln). August non-oil exports -3.9% m/m (expected -3.8%; last 1.4%); 11.4% yr/yr (expected 8.3%; last 7.0%)
    New Zealand’s August Business PMI 54.9 (last 53.5)

    #43775
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a lower note with the U.K.’s FTSE (-0.4%) showing the slimmest losses despite the release of weaker than expected retail sales for August.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.3% (-2.7% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -1.8% (-2.8% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.4% (-1.1% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -1.5% (-2.4% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.0% (+0.3% week-to-date)

    #43776
    Truman
    Participant

    Bank of France raised its domestic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.6% from 2.3% and it now expects a 0.5% contraction in 2023, down from the previous forecast for growth of 0.8%. The central bank expects inflation of 5.8% this year and between 4.2% and 6.9% next year.
    European Central Bank President Lagarde said that rate hikes are sending a signal that the central bank will achieve its price target. Germany placed Rosneft Deutschland and Schwedt refinery under trusteeship.
    Eurozone’s August CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.1%); 9.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 9.1%). August Core CPI 0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%); 4.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.3%)
    U.K.’s August Retail Sales -1.6% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.4%); -5.4% yr/yr (expected -4.2%; last -3.2%). August Core Retail Sales -1.6% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.4%); -5.0% yr/yr (expected -3.4%; last -3.1%)
    Italy’s July trade deficit EUR361 mln (expected deficit of EUR1.50 bln; last deficit of EUR2.51 bln). August CPI 0.8% m/m, as expected (last 0.8%); 8.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 8.4%)

    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.0% (+0.3% week-to-date)

    #43777
    Truman
    Participant

    FedEx (FDX 162.61, -42.26, -20.63%): guides 1Q23 EPS well below consensus and guides Q2 EPS and revenue below consensus, citing global volume softness, particularly due to macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe; also withdraws FY23 earnings guidance
    Uber (UBER 31.84, -1.29, -3.89%): lower on security breach news
    NCR Corp (NCR 24.20, -4.91, -16.87%): to separate into two independent companies
    Roblox (RBLX 42.78, -0.72, -1.66%): reports August metrics – Daily active users were 59.9 million, up 24% yr/yr
    Texas Instruments (TXN 163.03, +0.36, +0.22%): raises its quarterly dividend 8% to $1.24/share, payable November 15; authorizes an additional $15 bln for share repurchases
    Adobe (ADBE 300.55, -8.58, -2.78%):BofA Securities downgrades to Neutral from Buy
    General Electric (GE 66.00, -2.91, -4.22%): CFO acknowledges that supply chain issues will reduce profit, according to Bloomberg

    #43778
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity futures extended their losses ahead of the open.

    The S&P 500 futures are down 48 points and are trading 1.7% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 149 points and are trading 1.9% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 352 points and are trading 2.7% below fair value.

    Treasury yields are climbing ahead of the open.

    The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.91% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.49%.

    The US Dollar Index is also climbing into the open, up 0.4% to 110.14.

    #43779
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries are on track to begin the Friday session near their flat lines with the 2-yr note expected to show slight relative weakness at the start. Sentiment in the U.S. is under pressure after FedEx (FDX) withdrew its guidance for the year and announced cost cutting measures after a disappointing quarter.

    Crude oil is bouncing after yesterday’s dive while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% at 109.94.

    2-yr: +1 bp to 3.88%
    3-yr: UNCH at 3.86%
    5-yr: -1 bp to 3.66%
    10-yr: UNCH at 3.46%
    30-yr: UNCH at 3.48%

    #43797

    HAPPY QUAD WITCHING FRIDAY to all
    Ohhhh the humanity — DOW down 375 & NAZ down 200 … The great harvest of WALL STREET BULLS continue
    How do you like your STEAKS? with a good quality cut I like RARE (still moo-ing – lol

    Some incredible “wa wa” guitar on this masterpiece & theme for the day of the witches 😉 🙂

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