Traders Market Weekly: Fed, Inflation and Profit Warnings

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    Monday – September 12

    Options trading volume is high again on retailers Revlon (REV) and e.l.f. Beauty (ELF). Short interest remains at an elevated level on Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE) and Nordstrom (JWN). Social media interest on Mullen Automotive (MULN) has jumped significantly.

    All day – Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) will hold an investor day event. Shares of BAM rallied more than 3% after last year’s investor day event.

    All day – Amgen (AMGN) will host a webcast call for the investment community in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology Annual Congress. Amgen execs and members of the clinical development team will discuss the data being presented from the sotorasib CodeBreaK 200 confirmatory Phase 3 study in non-small cell lung cancer and data from the full Phase 1b expansion cohort of Lumakras in combination with Vectibix in colorectal cancer.

    Postmarket – Braze (BRZE), Rent the Runway (RENT), and Planet Labs (PL) will report earnings with options trading implying a double-digit swing for all three stocks after the numbers and guidance are released.


    All week conference schedule is very busy including

    CL King’s 20th Annual Best Ideas Conference,
    Barclays Global Financial Services Conference,
    Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference,
    Morgan Stanley 20th Annual Global Healthcare Conference,
    Raymond James Consumer Conference
    KBC Securities Virtual Life Sciences Conference.


    Tuesday – September 13

    All day – Twitter (TWTR) will hold a special shareholder meeting to vote on Elon Musk’s offer to buy the company for $54.20 per share.

    All day – Corebridge Financial (CRBG) is expected to start trading after spinning off from AIG. The IPO offering will see 80M shares released at an expected pricing range of $21 to $24 per share. CRBG is already profitable and expects to provide a 4% dividend yield at the IPO price.

    All day – Shareholders with Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. IV (KCAC.U) meet to vote on the deal to take silicon-anode battery maker Amprius Technologies public in a SPAC transaction.

    All day – Starbucks (SBUX) will hold a highly-anticipated investor day event with the company’s new CEO and strategic plan in focus. Other companies holding investor events with the potential for guidance updates include Workiva (WK), Corteva (CTVA), Cimpress (CMPR), and Funko (FNKO).

    All day – Workday, Inc. (WDAY) will host its financial analyst day event that will take place during Workday Rising, the company’s annual customer conference.

    8:30 a.m. The consumer price index will be reported for August. While the month-to-month inflation rate is forecast to be flat, consumer prices are still expected to be up 8.1% on the year-over-year comparison vs. +8.5% in July.


    Wednesday – September 14

    All day – Companies holding investor events with the potential for guidance updates include Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN), Real Good Food Company (RGF), and Kindred Group Capital (OTC:KNDGF).

    All day – Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will start trading at an adjusted price following the 3-for-1 stock split.

    8:30 a.m. Traders will watch the producer price index report release closely. Headline PPI is forecast to dip 0.1% month-over-month. Excluding food and energy, PPI is seen rising 0.3% for the month vs. +0.2% in July and showing up 8.9% year-over-year vs. +9.8% in July.

    9:45 a.m. Shareholders with Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) vote on the deal to take FOXO Technologies (DWIN) public in a SPAC deal that will value the combined company at $369M.


    Thursday – September 15

    All day – A huge day of investor events is headlined by Roblox’s (RBLX) Investor Day. Also watch for Humana’s (HUM) investor update, T. Rowe Price’s (TROW) business update, The Beauty Health Company (SKIN) Investor Day event, ASLAN Pharmaceuticals’ (ASLN) Hybrid R&D Day, Danaher (DHR) Bioprocessing Analyst & Investor Day, the SQM (SQM) Investor Day event, Inari Medical’s (NARI) Analyst & Investor Day event, Harmonic’s (HLIT) Virtual Analyst Day, and National Instruments’ (NATI) investor conference.

    All day – Shareholders with CF Acquisition Corp. VI (CFVI) will vote on the deal to take video platform firm Rumble public. The termination date for the SPAC deal is October 31 if the transaction is not approved. Rumble could start trading within days if the deal is given a green light.

    All day – Activision Blizzard (ATVI) has an event scheduled to reveal details on its Call of Duty game franchise, including info on the multiplayer action and the multiplayer beta program for its upcoming holiday entry Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II. In the background, Microsoft’s (MSFT) deal to acquire ATVI is going through the regulatory review process.


    Friday – September 16

    All day – The stock market could see extra volatility with triple witching day featuring the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts.

    All day – Videogame software and hardware sales data will be reported by NPD Group for the month of August.

    All day – AdaptHealth Corp (AHCO) will hold a Capital Markets Day event.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note, though overall volume was reduced due to holiday closures in China, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +1.2%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: CLOSED
    China’s Shanghai Composite: CLOSED
    India’s Sensex: +0.5%
    South Korea’s Kospi: CLOSED
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.0%


    There was some speculation that China will lower its medium-term lending facility rate.
    Japan is expected to scrap its limit on daily visitor arrivals as early as this week.
    New Zealand is lifting its mask and vaccine mandates.
    Japan’s August Machine Tool Orders 10.7% yr/yr (last 5.5%)
    New Zealand’s July Visitor Arrivals 41.8% m/m (last 30.1%)


    Major European indices trade on a firmly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +1.1%
    Germany’s DAX: +1.8%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.4%
    France’s CAC 40: +1.4%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.8%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.6%


    European Central Bank policymakers are reportedly preparing to raise the key rate to 2.00% with some lobbying for restrictive policy.
    ECB policymaker Nagel said that clearer steps will need to be taken if inflation doesn’t ease, adding that it could exceed 10.0% at its peak, which is expected in December.
    French Finance Minister Le Maire said that consumers will have to absorb some of the effect of higher energy prices.
    U.K.’s July GDP 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.6%).
    July Construction Output -0.8% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -1.4%); 4.3% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 4.1%).
    July Industrial Production -0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.9%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.4%).
    July Manufacturing Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -1.6%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 1.3%).
    July trade deficit GBP19.36 bln (expected deficit of GBP22.30 bln; last deficit of GBP22.85 bln)
    Italy’s July Industrial Production 0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -2.0%); -1.4% yr/yr (expected -0.4%; last -1.1%)


    Bristol-Myers (BMY 75.75, +5.59, +7.97%): receives FDA approval for Sotyktu
    Walt Disney (DIS 115.88, +0.70, +0.61%): activist Dan Loeb reportedly calling off his push to spin off ESPN, according to CNBC
    Newmont Goldcorp (NEM 44.16, +0.99, +2.29%): initiated with a Buy at Goldman
    Carvana (CVNA 39.03, +2.41, +6.58%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler
    iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB 128.63, +0.23, +0.18%): President Biden signed executive order to launch a national biotechnology and biomanufacturing initiative


    Equity futures gave back some gains heading into the open.

    The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 87 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.


    Dow +281.40 at 32435.07, Nasdaq +143.56 at 12255.84, S&P +44.39 at 4111.82

    The stock market opened on a high note driven by carryover momentum from recent gains.

    Buying is broad in nature with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) (+1.3%), the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) (+1.0%), and the S&P 500 (+1.1%) all showing sizable gains.

    S&P 500 sector performance also reflects the broad buying interest thus far with every sector showing gains ranging from 0.2% (utilities) to 2.3% (energy). Aside from utilities, a risk-on mentality has consumer staples (+0.4%) and health care (+0.5%) at the bottom of the pack.

    Energy sits atop the leaderboard as oil prices trend higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.1% to $88.60/bbl.


    New York Fed 1-year consumer inflation expectations hit 10-month low

    1 year inflation expectations fall to 5.75%, a 10-month low, from 6.2%
    3-year inflation expectations to lowest in nearly 2 years at 2.8% vs 3.2% in July
    Saw lower chance of losing a job in August than in July and higher likelihood of finding a job if needed
    Saw lowest chance of quitting their job since March 2021


    Bitcoin up 4% today

    Tempting to say it’s a catch-up trade after weeks of Ethereum outperformance on the merge hype. The Sept 15 event is a big risk for crypto and there’s a clear pattern of ‘sell the fact’ trades following mainstream crypto events.

    Gary Gensler gave last week which corresponded with the bottom in bitcoin. He said that the vast majority of tokens are securities but did appear to single out bitcoin:

    Bitcoin, the first crypto token, is referred to by some as “digital gold”: trading like a precious metal, a speculative, scarce — yet digital — store of value.
    Finally, I would say that sentiment did appear to wash out with the bitcoin ‘gurus’ as Pomp removed his laser eyes and Raoul Pal pivoted back to global macro.

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