Traders Market Weekly: Santa Brought Coal in 2022

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 58 total)
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    Trimble (TRMB) to acquire Transporeon for €1.88 bln; expected to be immediately accretive to Pro Forma revenue growth and Non-GAAP operating margin

    TRMB down 4.7%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.7%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.1%
    India’s Sensex: +0.7%
    South Korea’s Kospi: UNCH
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%


    Hong Kong lifted some more coronavirus restrictions for travelers while China’s Ambassador to the U.S. said that more restrictions will be relaxed soon.
    Japan is reportedly looking to issue $11.60 bln in construction bonds as part of its plan to increase military spending.
    Japan will tighten curbs on exports of advanced technology products to China.
    Australia’s November NAB Business Survey 20 (last 22) and Business Confidence -4 (last 0)
    New Zealand’s November FPI 0.0% m/m (last 0.8%)


    Major European indices trade in the green.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +1.6%
    Germany’s DAX: +2.0%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.0%
    France’s CAC 40: +2.0%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +2.0%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.5%


    Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment survey improved to its best level since turning negative in March.
    A temporary stabilization in energy markets was credited for the improved outlook.
    Lufthansa raised its guidance due to a rebound in bookings. Germany’ Engineering Federation reiterated its forecast for 2022 production growth of 1.0% and a 2.0% decline in 2023.
    Switzerland maintained its 2022 growth forecast at 2.0% but the outlook for 2023 was trimmed to 1.0% from 1.1%.
    Eurozone’s December ZEW Economic Sentiment -23.6 (expected -25.7; last -38.7)
    Germany’s December ZEW Economic Sentiment -23.3 (expected -26.4; last -36.7) and ZEW Current Conditions -61.4 (expected -57.0; last -64.5). November CPI -0.5% m/m, as expected (last 0.9%); 10.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 10.4%)
    U.K.’s October three month employment change 27,000 (expected -17,000; last -52,000). October Average Earnings Index + Bonus 6.1% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.0%). October Unemployment Rate 3.7%, as expected (last 3.7%). November Claimant Count 30,500 (expected 3,500; last -6,400)
    Italy’s October Industrial Production -1.0% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -1.7%); -1.6% yr/yr (expected -0.1%; last -0.5%)


    S&P futures vs fair value: +120.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +468.30.

    Equity futures shot higher following the cooler-than-expected November Consumer Price Index.
    The S&P 500 futures are up 118 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 463 points and are trading 4.0% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 740 points and are trading 2.2% above fair value.


    Oracle (ORCL 83.80, +2.52, +3.1%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 (Feb) EPS below consensus, guides Q3 revenue above consensus
    Pinterest (PINS 24.27, +0.66, +2.8%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler
    Boeing (BA 190.49, +4.22, +2.3%): United (UAL) finalized its order to purchase 100 firm Boeing 787 aircraft scheduled to be delivered starting with eight aircraft in 2024
    Moderna (MRNA 177.00, +11.87, +7.2%) and Merck (MRK 111.64, +2.67, +2.5%): announce investigational cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157/V940, has met primary efficacy endpoint
    First Solar (FSLR 150.83, +0.55, +0.4%): Set to Join S&P 500 prior to the open on December 19
    Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX 45.45, +4.04, +9.8%): receives FDA accelerated approval of KRAZATI
    Eli Lilly (LLY 360.00, -7.25, -2.0%): reaffirms FY22 guidance; sees FY23 EPS and revs below consensus



    China is working on a $143 billion monetary support plan for China’s semiconductor industry, according to Reuters.

    Germany’s Consumer Price Index for November was in line with expectations and showed a welcome deceleration on a year-over-year basis (10.0% versus 10.4% prior).

    Sam Bankman-Fried has been arrested in the Bahamas, which means he will not be testifying at today’s House hearing on the collapse of FTX.

    Treasury yields are inching lower. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.37% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.58%.

    The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey rose to 91.9 in November from 91.3 in October.


    Total CPI was up 0.1% month-over-month in November (consensus +0.3%) and core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (consensus +0.3%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up “only” 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up “only” 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.

    The key takeaway from the report at first look is that overall inflation is cooling, and that the Fed should be convinced to temper the pace of its rate hikes and perhaps place a lower ceiling on its terminal rate.


    Yield Check After CPI:

    2-yr: -25 bps to 4.14%
    3-yr: -25 bps to 4.14%
    5-yr: -20 bps to 3.60%
    10-yr: -17 bps to 3.44%
    30-yr: -12 bps to 3.46%


    ^^^^ +1s for excellent insight on markets

    CPI = 7.1% (verses 7.3% expected) – as FED can slow down a little
    RALLY ON WALL STREET – SANTA is coming to town 😉 🙂


    Sharing as great movie of the season — that I’ve heard good reviews of & we plan to watch tonight


    Dow 34,108.64 103.60 0.30%
    S&P 500 4,019.66 29.10 0.73%
    Nasdaq 11,256.81 113.08 1.01%
    VIX 22.57 -2.43 -9.72%
    Gold 1,822.00 29.70 1.66%
    Oil 75.39 2.22 3.03%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.8%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.4%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: UNCH
    India’s Sensex: +0.2%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +1.1%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.7%


    U.S. officials are reportedly planning to cut off some Chinese tech companies from access to U.S. banks.
    China Securities Journal speculated that special local government bond issuance in 2023 may exceed CNY4.40 trln.
    Japanese officials have agreed to increase corporate, tobacco, and income taxes to fund higher defense spending.
    New Zealand expects to fall into recession in 2023. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr said that he expects spending to decrease and unemployment to increase next year.
    Japan’s Q4 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 7 (expected 6; last 8) and Q4 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 19 (expected 17; last 14). Q4 Tankan All Big Industry Capex 19.2% (expected 20.4%; last 21.5%). October Core Machinery Orders 5.4% m/m (expected 2.6%; last -4.6%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 2.9%). October Industrial Production -3.2% m/m (expected -2.6%; last -1.7%)
    South Korea’s November Unemployment Rate 2.9% (last 2.8%)
    India’s November WPI Inflation 5.85% yr/yr (expected 6.50%; last 8.39%)
    New Zealand’s Q3 Current Account -7.9% of GDP (expected -8.0% of GDP; last -7.7% of GDP)

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 58 total)
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