Traders Market Weekly: Valuation Matters in Earnings Season

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 56 total)
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  • #39744
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are 1.1% below fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 1.6% below fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.9% below fair value

    Key factors driving the futures market:
    Flattening yield curve contributing to growth concerns
    Euro hits 20-year low against the dollar
    Weakness in mega-cap stocks
    Reserve Bank of Australia raises key policy rate by 50 basis points, as expected, to 1.35%
    Biden Administration said to be close to rolling back tariffs on some Chinese imports
    Norway oil and gas workers go on strike over pay
    Crypto lender Vauld pauses customer withdrawals
    Russia to shut down Nord Stream 1 pipeline for summer maintenance work; also claims to have taken control of Luhansk province in eastern Ukraine
    South Korea sees highest consumer inflation rate (6.0% year-over-year) since 1998

    #39745
    Truman
    Participant

    Brokerage research calls of note:
    Upgrades: BUD, AR, EE
    Downgrades: AEG, AVAH, HPQ, NVCR, PKI, SONY

    #39750

    PPPPPPLLLLLUUUNNNGGGEEEE on TUESDAY … DOW -700, BITCOIN=19,500, hammer time on WALL STREET
    Even JOEY CHESTNUT was attacked at National Hot Dog contest by “animal lover”
    but even he is in a recession also, only eating 63 yesterday v. 76 in 2021 – lol
    My better half & hounds feasted on some great burgers yesterday & thankful for our great nation

    #39751

    OIL falls on strongest $$$ in 19 years — as stocks/bonds both have been hammered in 2022
    OIL even goes to $99 for 1st time with about 8% decline today … Equites are a little better also
    I hope even these higher prices stick as an upper boundary level so we can normalize later

    P.S. My FAV STAR TREK of all time (8pm ET) — Trouble with Tribbles 🙂 🙂 🙂
    https://www.handitv.com/schedule/

    #39757

    Dow 30,967.82 -129.44 -0.42%
    S&P 500 3,831.39 6.06 0.16%
    Nasdaq 11,322.24 194.39 1.75%
    GlobalDow 3,462.63 -61.88 -1.76%
    Gold 1,764.60 -36.90 -2.05%
    Oil 99.65 -8.78 -8.10%

    RECESSION fears weighed on ALL SECTORS as some risk/reality factors in
    still there are a few “TRIBBLES” in economy ahead – lol

    #39770
    Truman
    Participant

    The global equity markets are mixed. S&P Futures are down about five points to trade around the 3829 area. An early bid to extend yesterday’s recovery stalled out 3848.75. Sellers regained control, taking the market down to 3808.75 before settling back to the current level.

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -5.0
    10 yr Note: 2.810%
    USD/JPY: 135.36 -0.50
    EUR/USD: 1.0236 -0.0029
    Europe: FTSE: +1.1% DAX: +1.0% CAC: +1.0%
    Asia: Hang Seng: -1.2% Shanghai: -1.4% Nikkei: -1.2%
    Gold (1765.40 +1.40) Silver (19.16 +0.04) Crude (100.03 +0.53)

    #39771
    Truman
    Participant

    In Asia, both China and Japan closed over 1% lower. The Shanghai Composite suffered from souring sentiment after a resurgence of COVID cases in the city of Shanghai. The cautious trade stemmed from fears of another round of lockdowns. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 1.2%. Energy stocks dragged the Japanese benchmark lower with names such as Idemitsu Kosan, Japan Petroleum and Inpex sliding 6-10%.

    In Europe, the major bourses are up in the neighborhood of 1% across the region. These markets followed the US’ bounce from yesterday as they closed just prior the upswing. Additionally, better than expected German Factory Orders helped support the rally. The May print rose 0.1% compared to the forecast of a decline of 0.6%. Financials are failing to follow the upward flow with lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole falling 1-3%.

    #39772
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a higher note.
    The U.K.’s Economic Secretary to the Treasury resigned after Chancellor Sunak and Health Secretary Javid did the same yesterday, fueling speculation that Prime Minister Johnson will be forced out soon.
    The European Parliament will classify nuclear power and gas as “green energy.”
    Norwegian oil and gas workers will return to work after an imposition of forced settlements by the government.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +1.5%
    Germany’s DAX: +1.4%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.7%
    France’s CAC 40: +1.6%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.8%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.1%

    #39773
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone’s May Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -1.4%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected -0.4%; last 4.0%)
    Germany’s May Factory Orders 0.1% m/m (expected -0.6%; last -1.8%)
    U.K.’s June Construction PMI 52.6 (expected 55.0; last 56.4)
    Spain’s May Industrial Production 3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.4%; last 2.3%)

    #39774
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note.

    Travel-related names struggled in Japan amid reports that the Japanese government’s travel support program will be delayed. Some entertainment venues in Shanghai will remain closed while others have been allowed to open.
    South Korea’s prime minister called on the Bank of Korea to normalize policy to bring down inflation.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.2%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.2%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -1.4%
    India’s Sensex: +1.2%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -2.1%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%

    #39775
    Truman
    Participant

    Hong Kong’s June Manufacturing PMI 52.4 (last 54.9)
    New Zealand’s GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -4.1% (last -1.3%)

    #39776
    Truman
    Participant

    Kornit Digital (KRNT 23.90, -7.66, -24.3%): Kornit Digital issues downside Q2 revenue guidance, citing macro-related headwinds that meaningfully accelerated in the last few weeks of the quarter.
    Microsoft (MSFT 262.47, -0.38, -0.1%): The UK CMA is investigating the anticipated acquisition by Microsoft Corporation of Activision Blizzard.
    Altria (MO 42.71, +0.99, +2.4%): The Juul ban was suspended by FDA.
    Walmart (WMT 123.78, -0.47, -0.4%): Some Walmart suppliers will face fuel surcharges, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    #39777
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are 0.5% below fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.8% below fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.2% below fair value
    Key factors driving the futures market:
    Lingering growth concerns in the midst of an inverted yield curve
    Hesitation in front of June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET and release of June 14-15 FOMC Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET
    Prevailing inclination to sell into strength
    EUR/USD (-0.8% to 1.0181) moves closer to parity with the dollar
    Norwegian government intervenes to prevent oil and gas worker strike
    OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, died unexpectedly last night
    Shanghai has reportedly seen the emergence of new COVID cases, raising concerns about a potential shutdown
    Weekly mortgage applications -5.4%, with purchase applications down 4% and refinancing applications down 8% despite a dip in mortgage rates

    #39778
    Truman
    Participant

    Brokerage research calls of note:
    Upgrades: AOS, CDEV, CPE, DNB, ENTA, MERC, RKT, SABR, SRE
    Downgrades: AZUL, CLR, COIN, ESTE, EOG, GO, HCA, KRNT, LFUS, MCK, MC, PXD, RNG, SAP, UNP, UHS

    #39779
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries are on track for a mixed start after four days of strong gains.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% at 106.94 as it builds on yesterday’s strong gain, largely thanks to strength against the euro, which is at its lowest level against the dollar in nearly 20 years.

    Yield Check:
    2-yr: UNCH at 2.82%
    3-yr: UNCH at 2.82%
    5-yr: -2 bps to 2.80%
    10-yr: -1 bp to 2.80%
    30-yr: +1 bp to 3.04%

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 56 total)
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