Traders Market Weekly: Squeeze Dynamics and Market Fragility

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 59 total)
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  • #67969
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 46 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 59 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

    Stock futures point to a lower open.

    This morning’s batch of earnings news from retailers has garnered mixed reactions.

    Participants are also looking ahead to quarterly results from NVIDIA (NVDA), which is up nearly 25% since late October, after today’s close.

    2-yr Treasury note yield is down one basis point to 4.89%
    10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.41%.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 0.3% to $77.66/bbl.

    #67987

    Dow 35,088.43 -62.61 -0.18%
    S&P 500 4,538.22 -9.16 -0.20%
    Nasdaq 14,199.98 -84.55 -0.59%
    VIX 13.31 -0.10 -0.75%
    Gold 2,001.20 20.90 1.06%
    Oil 77.79 0.19 0.24%

    #68004
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.3%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: UNCH
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
    India’s Sensex: +0.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.1%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%

    #68005
    Truman
    Participant

    The Bank of Japan once again reduced its scheduled bond buying plans.
    Japanese cabinet office lowered its view of the overall economy for the first time since January.

    #68006
    Truman
    Participant

    Major state-owned banks in China have reportedly been acquiring dollars through onshore swap agreements and selling the proceeds in the spot currency market.
    Chinese government advisers are recommending more fiscal stimulus and a 2024 growth target between 4.5% and 5.5%, according to Reuters.

    #68007
    Truman
    Participant

    Singapore’s Q3 GDP 1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last 0.1%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%)

    Australia’s October MI Leading Index 0.0% m/m (last 0.1%)

    #68008
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
    Germany’s DAX: +0.4%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1%
    France’s CAC 40: +0.4%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.4%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.5%

    #68009
    Truman
    Participant

    The British government is expected to release its Autumn Budget statement this morning, which could include lower income taxes and national insurance fees, according to reports from Monday.

    U.K.’s November CBI Industrial Trends Orders -35 (expected -25; last -26)

    #68010
    Truman
    Participant

    European Central Bank President Lagarde said that supply shocks that fueled inflation are now subsiding, but the ECB remains ready to hike again if there are renewed risks of missing the inflation target.

    The ECB’s financial stability review noted that stability is fragile, and it is critical to reach an agreement on region-wide fiscal rules. The German government is reportedly implementing a freeze on most new spending plans.

    #68011
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

    10-yr note yield sliding to 4.36%, down six basis points from yesterday, is also providing underlying support along with the seasonality trade ahead of economic releases this morning that include Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET), October Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET), and the Final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET).

    #68012
    Truman
    Participant

    NVIDIA (NVDA 499.38, -0.06, -0.01%): beats by $0.65, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs above consensus; says affected sales from U.S. export curbs to be more than offset by strong growth in other regions

    Deere (DE 361.50, -21.15, -5.5%): beats by $0.80, beats on revs, but FY24 guidance deemed weaker than expected

    Autodesk (ADSK 203.37, -14.30, -6.6%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler

    HP, Inc. (HPQ 27.31, -0.56, -2.0%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; mid-point of JanQ EPS guidance below consensus; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance

    Guess? (GES 20.28, -3.44, -14.5%): misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus

    Urban Outfitters (URBN 33.89, -2.42, -6.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs, Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 5.6%

    Jack in the Box (JACK 66.75, -2.14, -3.1%): misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS below consensus; authorizes share repurchase program for up to $250 mln

    #68013
    Truman
    Participant

    Clorox (CLX 140.51, +1.16, +0.8%): upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan

    #68014
    Truman
    Participant

    Alibaba (BABA 79.52, +0.58, +0.7%): Jack Ma ends plans to lower stake in Alibaba, according to Bloomberg

    #68015
    Truman
    Participant

    Caterpillar (CAT 243.60, -5.81, -2.3%): trading lower in sympathy with Deere

    #68016
    Truman
    Participant

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 18 decreased by 24,000 to 209,000 (consensus 227,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 11 decreased by 22,000 to 1.840 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that this report covers the period in which the survey for the November employment report is conducted, so the low level of initial jobless claims should support expectations for some decent growth — certainly at this point in the Fed’s tightening cycle — for nonfarm payrolls.

    Durable goods orders for October declined 5.4% month-over-month (consensus -3.1%) following a downwardly revised 4.0% increase (from 4.7%) in September. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were flat month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase (from 0.5%) in September.

    The key takeaway from the report rests in the recognition that nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft — a proxy for business spending — dipped 0.1% month-over-month following a 0.2% decline in September. That isn’t a major drop-off by any means, but it does fit with a softening environment in the manufacturing space.

    The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November came in at 61.3 (consensus 60.9), versus the preliminary reading of 60.4 and October’s final reading of 63.8. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 56.7. November marks the fourth straight month that consumer sentiment has declined.

    The key takeaway from the report is the jump in inflation expectations, which is not what the Fed wants to see following 525 basis points worth of tightening already. It is the type of indication that will keep the Fed entertaining the thought that further tightening may still be necessary.

    The MBA Mortgage Applications Index was up 3.0% week-over-week with refinance applications up 2% and purchase applications up 3%

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