Traders Market Weekly: Oil Caps, Sanctions and Services

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    Monday – November 28

    All day – Amazon’s (AMZN) four-day AWS re:Invent 2022 event will begin from Las Vegas. The company typically highlights AWS products and services at the event and provides time slots for other companies to showcase their products.

    Sumo Logic (SUMO), Rackspace Technology (RXT), and Satellogic (SATL) are some of the companies that are participating this year. In the past, Datadog (DDOG), NetApp (NTAP) and (AI) have seen share price jolts around developments at re:Invent. This year’s event will take place with AWS reportedly stretching a hiring freeze until the first quarter of 2023.


    Tuesday – November 29

    All day – The Macerich Company (MAC) will host a two-day Investor Day in Scottsdale, Arizona. the management team will discuss the current operating environment and trends, as well as near-term and long-term strategies, development and redevelopment activities, and other business and financial matters.

    All day – Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY) will host an investor seminar. Deutsche Bank expect lots of questions and commentary on near term pricing dynamics that have the potential to jolt shares.

    All day – The IPO lockup period on TOP Financial Group (TOP) expires for a block of shares. The stock is up slightly from its IPO price.

    8:00 a.m. Cerence (CRNC) will host a live investor day in New York City. The agenda includes a review of Q4 and full year results, as well as an update on FY23 guidance. Additionally, the company will share Cerence’s market and growth strategy, a deeper dive into its technology roadmap and competitive position supporting the strategy, and the multi-year financial targets.

    9:00 a.m. Emerson (EMR) will hold an in-person and virtual investor conference with presentations from top executives. Shares of Emerson have been volatile in the past during similar events when the company’s guidance was updated.

    10:15 a.m. Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) will host a fireside chat at the Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference. Shares of BROS have been volatile in the past when management gave talks at investor conferences.

    11:00 a.m. The National Retail Federation will hold a media call to analyze the shopping results of the five-day Thanksgiving weekend holiday. Watch department store stocks Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), and Nordstrom (JWN).
    e priority review for SCYNEXIS’ (SCYX) Brexafemme. Shares of SCYX have rallied in the past off Brexafemme developments. The FDA action date also hits for Y-mAbs’ (YMAB) omblastys pediatric nerve cell treatment.


    Wednesday – November 30

    All day – Shareholders with Pacifico Acquisition Corp. are scheduled to vote on the deal to take carbon-neutral ocean technology company Caravelle public in a SPAC deal.

    All day – Leslie’s (LESL) will host an Investor Day event following the release of its FQ4 earnings report.

    All day – The FDA action date will arrive on the priority review for SCYNEXIS’ (SCYX) Brexafemme. Shares of SCYX have rallied in the past off Brexafemme developments. The FDA action date also hits for Y-mAbs’ (YMAB) omblastys pediatric nerve cell treatment.

    All day – The New York Times DealBook Summit will include interviews or talks with BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink, Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy, and Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg. However, the most attention of all may be on Andrew Ross Sorkin’s interview with FTX’s Sam Bankman-Friedman in what is being previewed as a “nothing off limits” talk. It’s unclear if SBF will appear in person or virtually.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Truman.

    More Wednesday:

    All day – Coca-Cola Company (KO) CEO James Quincey will present at the Redburn CEO Conference.

    1:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a talk on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market.


    Thursday – December 1

    Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Kroger (KR). Options trading is implying a big share price move for Asana (ASAN) after it reports. The tech firm soared 24% the last time earnings were reported.

    Data watch – Chinese electric vehicle makers Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) will report on deliveries for November.

    All day – Farfetch (FTCH) will host its first-ever Capital Markets Day. Bank of America previewed that the long-awaited event could act as a positive catalyst for the stock as management lays out a convincing roadmap for growth, margin expansion and strategic priorities in 2023 and over the mid-term.


    Friday – December 2

    8:30 a.m. The November employment report will arrive. Economists forecast 200K nonfarm payroll additions for the month vs. +261K in October. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are projected to be up 4.6% year-over-year vs. +4.7% in October. Dramatic surprises to the upside or downside could reset Fed rate expectations.

    All day – The oil market will be on watch just ahead of the OPEC meeting set for December 3-4. Crude oil prices have fallen recently with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers discussing an output increase of up to 500K barrels per day and the Group of Seven nations looking at a price cap of $65 to $70 a barrel on Russian oil.

    1:00 p.m. It is the last trading day before the FOMC blackout period for members ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 13-14.


    Adobe expects Cyber Week – the five days from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday – to generate a total of $34.8B in spending online, up 3% compared to 2021. Flexible payment plans have also been used by many shoppers as they deal with high prices and inflation. “Buy Now Pay Later” payments soared by 78% compared with the past week, while “Buy Now Pay Later” revenue is 81% higher for the same period.


    Notable conferences:

    Credit Suisse Technology Conference, the Citi Basic Materials Conference, the Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference, the Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference, the Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference, the Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, and the Canaccord Defensive Technology Conference.


    Barron’s mentions:

    Quantum computing is the topic of the cover story this week. While publicly traded quantum computing companies have suffered substantial losses this year after investors fled high-risk bets in general, the point is drilled home that quantum computing still has enormous upside by solving computationally intensive problems with huge numbers of variables. Quantum computing is seen having the potential to speed up drug development, improve financial modeling, as well as boost the efficiency of electric batteries. Apart from the hundreds of quantum startups looking to break out, there are public-traded quantum plays such as Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), Arqit Quantum (NASDAQ:ARQQ), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS), and Quantum Computing (NASDAQ:QUBT) to consider. A catch-all quantum investment is the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM), which includes some well-known stocks like Texas Instruments (TXN) and Honeywell International (HON).


    BofA’s top 10 trades for 2023


    Next year the U.S. will experience a mild recession with the fed funds rate peaking at 5.25% and the Fed eventually cutting in December, according to BofA strategists.

    Stocks will move sideways and the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) will end 2023 at 4,000, Michael Hartnett and team wrote in a note.

    “We stay bearish risk assets in H1, likely turn bullish H2,” Hartnett said.

    “We are long US government bonds in H1” with “hard landing & credit event risks underpriced,” Hartnett added, maintaining optimal S&P entry points of “nibble” at 3,600, “bite” at 3,300, and “gorge” at 3,000.

    Here are their top 10 trades for 2023:

    Long 30-year Treasury (US30Y) (TBT) (TLT) “on recession, unemployment, Fed cuts late’23, history (US Treasury returns have never fallen for 3 consecutive years).”
    Yield curve steepeners “as US yield curve always steepens as recession begins and markets anticipate Fed flipping from hikes to cuts.”
    Short U.S. dollar (USDOLLAR) (DXY) (UDN), long emerging markets assets (EEM) (SPEM) (FEM), long EM distressed bonds, long Korean won on China reopening, long Mexican peso on “nearshoring.”
    Long China stocks (MCHI) (FXI) as “COVID reopening was v bullish for US/EAFE stocks, China has high ‘excess savings’ and China stocks remain v contrarian long trade.”
    Long gold (XAUUSD:CUR) (GLD) (IAU), long copper (HG1:COM) (COPX) on “US$ peak, China reopening, metal inventory shortages, energy transition acceleration, need in 2020s for inflation hedges.”
    Barbell credit with “long credit too consensus in ’23, we barbell long IG tech bonds (>5% yield + strong balance sheets) with distressed HY debt in Asia (17% yield).”
    Long global industrials (XLI) and small caps (IWM) on “secular leadership shift in 2020s from deflation to inflation assets, driven by globalization to localization, monetary to fiscal excess, inequality to inclusion and so on just beginning; capex set to be new macro bull story.”
    Short U.S. tech (XLK) (XLC). The “old leadership, still over-owned, era of QE is no longer, era of globalization no longer, plus peak penetration and regulation risks.”
    Short private equity (PSP) with “redemption risks given shadow banking exposures to housing & credit risks.”
    Long EU banks, short Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks. “EU fiscal stimulus to wean Eurozone off Russian energy dependence, Chinese export dependence, US military dependence vs real estate market busts in Canada/Australia/NZ/Sweden.”


    iCAD jumps 23% after licensing deal with Google for breast cancer imaging

    MedTech company iCAD, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICAD) added ~25% pre-market Monday after announcing a licensing agreement with Alphabet unit Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) to integrate the latter’s AI technology for its products targeted at breast cancer imaging.

    Per the terms of the development and commercialization agreement, Google Health’s AI technology will be part of iCAD’s portfolio of breast imaging products.

    “iCAD will apply the licensed technology to further improve its 3D and 2D AI algorithms and will commercialize developed products,” the company said, adding that it will also use Google Cloud to accelerate the rollout of cloud-based offerings.

    “By combining the power of our technologies and teams, we strengthen our fight against breast cancer and positively impact the lives of women and their loved ones across the globe,” iCAD (ICAD) chief executive Stacey Stevens noted.


    Lululemong Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), and Victoria’s Secret (NYSE:VSCO) were named the “biggest winners this Black Friday,” according to Morgan Stanley.

    Per the bank’s channel checks, Lululemon’s (LULU) traffic was “a clear standout across the mall” with long lines apparent at locations visited despite fewer discounts available. Additionally, strong sales at the core Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) was credited for offsetting significant deceleration evident for the retailer’s PINK brand. Finally, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Abercrombie & Fitch’s (ANF) core brand were called out for strong foot traffic and online sales for the Black Friday holiday.

    “In our view, this means these retailers’ assortments likely resonated with consumers & allowed these banners to drive relatively more profitable Black Friday revenue,” the team commented.

    By contrast, Abercrombie & Fitch’s (ANF) Hollister brand as well as The Gap’s (GPS) flagship and Banana Republic brands were cited as “relative losers” for the retail sales day. The weak traffic for the brands came despite deep discounting, arousing caution on both Q4 sales and margins for each of the retailers.

    “Looking ahead post-Black Friday, we worry consumers may hold-out on further holiday spending/shopping until retailers once again offer deeper discounts. Historically, when we have seen consumers hesitate to spend while retailers are overstocked with inventory, retailers have often reacted first, slashing prices on goods to clear out excess stocks,” the team concluded. “In our view, this means discounting activity could worsen over the next 5 weeks. This would yield outsized margin pressure, & keeps us cautious on the outlook for retailers’ profits this holiday season.”

    Elsewhere, Walmart (WMT) and Five Below (FIVE) were cited as retailers seeing higher than usual traffic levels, while Ulta Beauty (ULTA) saw slower traffic. Target (TGT) was “most surprising” for the team as traffic remained muted despite the discounts offered. The earlier start for holiday sales was cited as a possible factor in lower consumer interest in Black Friday deals specifically.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.4%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.6%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
    India’s Sensex: +0.3%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.2%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%


    Investor sentiment was pressured by reports of tighter lockdown measures in China, which prompted protests in several cities. Goldman Sachs speculated that China could lift its zero-covid policy before April, though Q2 is still projected as the most likely time for an exit.
    Japan is expected to fine three power companies on anti-trust grounds.
    China’s October Industrial Profit -3.0% YTD (last -2.3%)
    Hong Kong’s October trade deficit HKD20.90 bln (last deficit of HKD44.90 bln). October Imports -11.9% m/m (last -7.8%) and Exports -10.4% m/m (last -9.1%)
    Australia’s October Retail Sales -0.2% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%)


    Major European indices trade in the red. EU officials will reportedly continue discussing a potential price cap for Russian oil.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.8%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.9%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.4%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.9%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.1%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.1%

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