Traders Market Weekly: Independence, Precious and Formative

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  • #39448

    BITCOIN LOW actually saw an “18” handle @ 18,879.02

    #39453

    Dow 30,775.43 -253.88 -0.82%
    S&P 500 3,785.57 -33.26 -0.87%
    Nasdaq 11,028.74 -149.16 -1.33%
    GlobalDow 3,507.36 -40.29 -1.14%
    Gold 1,807.90 -9.60 -0.53%
    Oil 105.67 -4.11 -3.74%

    #39502
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was closed for a holiday.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.7% (-2.1% for the week)
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: CLOSED (+0.7% for the week)
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+1.1% for the week)
    India’s Sensex: -0.2% (+0.3% for the week)
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.2% (-2.6% for the week)
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4% (-0.6% for the week)

    #39503
    Truman
    Participant

    China’s June Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 50.1; last 48.1)
    Japan’s June Manufacturing PMI 52.7 (last 52.7). June Tokyo CPI 2.3% yr/yr (last 2.4%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%). May Unemployment Rate 2.6% (expected 2.5%; last 2.5%). Q2 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 13 (expected 14; last 9) and Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 9 (expected 13; last 14). Q2 Tankan All Big Industry Capex -1.4% (expected -6.7%; last -11.4%)
    South Korea’s June trade deficit $2.47 bln (expected deficit of $4.83 bln; last deficit of $1.71 bln). June Imports 19.4% yr/yr (expected 22.6%; last 32.0%) and June Exports 5.4% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 21.3%). June Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (last 51.8)
    India’s June Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 53.9 (expected 54.5; last 54.6)
    Australia’s June AIG Manufacturing Index 54.0 (last 52.4) and June Manufacturing PMI 56.2 (last 55.7)
    New Zealand’s May Building Consents -0.5% m/m (last -8.6%)
    Singapore’s Q2 URA Property Index 3.2% qtr/qtr (last 0.7%)

    #39504
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade on a modestly lower note.

    June Manufacturing PMI readings from the region’s major economies remained in expansionary territory with most beating expectations. European Central Bank policymaker Holzmann said that he would have preferred an earlier start to the ECB’s rate hike cycle, adding that returning inflation to target will take some time. The U.K. may reduce its value added tax. Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi expressed confidence that his country’s gas stockpile will be 90% full by November.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.5% (-1.9% week-to-date)
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1% (-2.6% week-to-date)
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1% (-0.6% week-to-date)
    France’s CAC 40: -0.1% (-2.5% week-to-date)
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2% (-3.9% week-to-date)
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.3% (-1.3% week-to-date)

    #39505
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone’s June CPI 0.8% m/m (last 0.8%); 8.6% yr/yr (expected 8.4%; last 8.1%). June Core CPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.5%); 8.6% yr/yr (expected 8.4%; last 8.1%). June Manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 52.0; last 54.6)
    Germany’s June Manufacturing PMI 52.0, as expected (last 54.8)
    U.K.’s May Mortgage Lending GBP7.43 bln (expected GBP4.15 bln; last GBP4.16 bln). June Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (expected 53.4; last 54.6)
    France’s June Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 51.0; last 54.6)
    Italy’s June Manufacturing PMI 50.9 (expected 50.5; last 51.9)
    Spain’s June Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (expected 52.1; last 53.8)
    Swiss June procure.ch PMI 59.1 (expected 57.9; last 60.0)

    #39506
    Truman
    Participant

    Micron (MU 52.80, -2.48, -4.5%): Micron beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; says industry demand environment has weakened recently
    Kohl’s (KSS 29.79, -5.90, -16.5%): Franchise Group negotiations to acquire Kohl’s Corporation have terminated; Kohl’s also lowers Q2 sales outlook
    American Airlines (AAL 12.70, +0.02, +0.2%): American Airlines will offer pilots a 17% raise.
    TSMC (TSM 78.70, -3.05, -3.7%): TSMC is seeing clients scale back their orders.
    FedEx (FDX 222.75, -3.96, -1.8%): Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; price target cut to $275 from $330.

    #39507
    Truman
    Participant

    The S&P 500 futures are 0.4% below fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.8% below fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.2% below fair value

    Key factors driving the futures market:

    Micron (MU), citing a weakened demand environment for smartphones and PCs, issues fiscal Q4 revenue and EPS guidance well below consensus estimates
    Eurozone inflation hits record high 8.6% year-over-year in June
    General growth concerns
    Senator McConnell tweets that there will be no bipartisan USICA (semi manufacturing, China competitiveness bill) if Democrats pursue a partisan reconciliation bill
    FDA says new booster shot vaccines for fall should target the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants
    Franchise Group ends acquisition talks with Kohl’s (KSS)
    American Airlines (AAL) offers pilots pay raises totaling 17% under new contract proposal, according to CNBC
    Taiwan Semi (TSM) is seeing major clients reduce orders, according to Digitimes

    #39508
    Truman
    Participant

    Brokerage research calls of note:
    Upgrades: CPNG, FRC, STR
    Downgrades: DCT, FDX, HBAN, LOB, MU, XPEV, ZIM

    #39509
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries are on track for a mostly higher start while the long bond is expected to show relative weakness in early action. Treasury futures rallied after yesterday’s cash close, hitting evening highs a couple hours after the start of the Asian session.

    The next few hours saw some backtracking, but Treasury futures rallied to fresh highs once the focus shifted to action in Europe.

    The Treasury market will close at 14:00 ET today.

    Yield Check:
    2-yr: -9 bps to 2.84%
    3-yr: -8 bps to 2.90%
    5-yr: -6 bps to 2.94%
    10-yr: -2 bps to 2.95%
    30-yr: +3 bps to 3.15%

    #39528

    It’s already the 4th of JULY WEEKEND — as we get 1/2 day off extra at work – lol
    STOCKs are hanging in there as FLAT for most part today
    BITCOIN is even rallying from 18,000 to 19,000 .. but OIL is steadily getting near $110
    and 17 days of GAS price penny decreases may come to an end

    Ohhhh the humanity …. as my brother once said … “NEVER celebrate the 4th with a 5th”

    #39258

    July 4 – July 10, 2022 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Image:
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Independence, Precious and Formative]

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