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Canada S&P Global March manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs 52.4 prior
Canadian PMI from S&P Global
Output and new orders both fall
Inflation continues to trend lower
Jobs added on brighter outlook“The recovery of Canada’s manufacturing economy stalled during March, with renewed falls in both production and new orders signalled. Broader macroeconomic uncertainty, and the negative impact of rising prices on client purchasing power were key factors that weighed on market demand.
“Nonetheless, despite these setbacks, there were some positive news to take from the survey, namely that price pressures continued to fall over the month amid reports of better supply-side stability. These are welcome developments given their roles in constraining manufacturing sector performance since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. And despite some residual challenges persisting – cost inflation remains high for instance – firms are growing in confidence, with optimism rising to its strongest in nearly a year and hiring activity being sustained. ”
^^^^^ +1’s for several excellent insights & developments for the coming week
I’ll be waving at the BLUE 757 flying over SW VA this afternoon for the wild TUE NYC trial of century
and OPEC will impact future INFLATION with higher GAS prices that may STAGNATE the economy
Still much to be thankful for as we celebrate holy week & wish all blessed holidays ahead
1 of my FAV songs of season by rock & country hall of fame 🙂For IRA & 401k’ers … this VANGUARD fund called VITAX did great during 1st QTR of 2023 (20%)
However, I may lock in soon to 100% KASH for future rebuying OPPs ahead in 2023
If we get bad ECON reports in weeks ahead, I’d rather risk missing out on higher highs – than lower lows
And old Steve Miller said it best 😉 🙂ECB’s Makhlouf:
Policy rate will need to be kept at a restrictive level to dampen demand
Short-term volatility in financial markets does not translate into risks for the macroeconomic outlook
Must remain steadfast and ready to act as required to ensure we reach our target over the medium-term
Must remain alert to the longer lags in the transmission of monetary policy to growth and inflation
If we end up in a wage-price spiral, it would call for stronger monetary response but so far there has been no indication that expectations have become de-anchoredThe market is pricing in about 50 bps more of hiking from the ECB, up to 3.50%.
BOE’s Tenreyro: A looser stance is needed to meet inflation target
(A reminder that Tenreyro has been against the latest rate hikes for a while now)
Looser stance can be achieved through lower bank rate today or in the future
Expects that with current high level of bank rate, it would require an earlier and faster reversal
That is to avoid a significant inflation undershoot
In the absence of further shocks, sees inflation likely falling well below targetEquity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note while markets in India were closed for Mahavir Jayanti.
—Equity Markets—
Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.7%
China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.5%
India’s Sensex: CLOSED
South Korea’s Kospi: +0.3%
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%Major European indices trade in positive territory.
—Equity Markets—
STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
Germany’s DAX: +0.9%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
France’s CAC 40: +0.6%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.5%
Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.9%Asian Development Bank increased its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.8% from 4.6% while China’s growth forecast was increased to 5.0% from 4.3%.
Asian Development Bank says Upside risks to China’s Growth Outlook Outweigh Downside Risks
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 3.60%, as expected.
The central bank expects that some additional tightening will be needed.South Korea’s March CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.8%)
New Zealand’s Q1 NZIER Business Confidence -66% (expected -40%; last -70%) and Q1 Capacity Utilization 94.0% (expected 93.5%; last 93.7%)
The European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey showed that inflation expectations for the year ahead slowed to 5.8% from 6.2%.
Germany’s Leading Economic Institutes raised the 2023 domestic growth forecast to 0.3% from -0.4% and lowered the 2024 outlook to 1.5% from 1.7%. The 2023 CPI forecast was cut to 6.0% from 8.8% while the 2024 forecast was started at 2.4%.
Swiss National Bank Vice Chair Schlegel repeated that everything will be done to bring inflation down, including additional rate hikes.
Finland became NATO’s 31st member state today.
Eurozone’s February PPI -0.5% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -2.8%); 13.2% yr/yr (expected 13.3%; last 15.1%)
Germany’s February trade surplus EUR16.00 bln (expected surplus of EUR17.00 bln; last surplus of EUR16.80 bln).
February Imports 4.6% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -1.4%) and Exports 4.0% m/m (expected 1.6%; last 2.5%)Spain’s March unemployment -48,800 (expected 8,500; last 2,600)
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