Traders Market Weekly: Geopolitics, ECB and Apple

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 48 total)
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  • #43194
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note.
    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.8%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
    India’s Sensex: -0.3%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.4%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.4%.

    #43195
    Truman
    Participant

    China’s August trade surplus $79.39 bln (expected surplus of $92.70 bln; last surplus of $101.26 bln). August Imports 0.3% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 2.3%) and Exports 7.1% yr/yr (expected 12.8%; last 18.0%)
    Japan’s July Leading Index 99.6 (last 100.3) and Coincident Indicator 1.4% m/m (last 3.3%)
    South Korea’s July Current Account surplus $1.09 bln (last surplus of $5.61 bln)
    Australia’s Q2 GDP 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last 0.7%); 3.6% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 3.3%). August AIG Services Index 53.3 (last 51.7)
    Japan’s former top currency diplomat Watanabe said that the Bank of Japan should only respond to persistent yen weakness if margins become impacted.
    China Securities Times pushed back against concerns regarding the yuan’s fall to 7.0000 per dollar.
    China’s trade surplus missed August expectations due to below-consensus growth in imports and exports.
    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will speak about inflation and monetary policy tomorrow.

    #43196
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade in the red while Spain’s IBEX (unch) outperforms.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.3%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.4%,
    France’s CAC 40: -0.3%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: UNCH.

    • This reply was modified 3 months ago by Truman.
    #43198
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone’s Q2 GDP 0.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 0.5%); 4.1% yr/yr (expected 3.9%; last 5.4%). Q2 Employment Change 0.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.7%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 3.1%)
    Germany’s July Industrial Production -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.8%)
    U.K.’s August Halifax House Price Index 0.4% m/m (last -0.1%); 11.5% yr/yr (last 11.8%)
    Italy’s July Retail Sales 1.3% m/m (last -1.1%); 4.2% yr/yr (last 1.3%)
    European Commission President von der Leyen confirmed that a limit on the price of Russian gas will be proposed.
    Russia’s President Putin warned that oil and gas contracts will not be respected if prices are capped.
    British Prime Minister Truss is not expected to trigger article 16 in the Northern Ireland Protocol, effectively delaying a confrontation with the European Union.

    #43199
    Truman
    Participant

    Apple (AAPL 155.05, +0.52, +0.34%) will unveil new iPhones, Apple Watches, and other products at event today at 13:00 ET
    Target (TGT 163.00, -0.58, -0.35%)announces Brian Cornell plans to remain on as CEO for approx. three more years; chief supply chain and logistics officer to retire
    Newell Brands (NWL 16.30, -0.78, -4.57%): lowers Q3 and FY22 EPS and revenue guidance below consensus due to greater than expected pullback in retailer orders
    Coupa Software (COUP 62.54, +6.72, +12.04%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; also announces a $100 mln share repurchase program
    NIO (NIO 16.12, -0.99, -5.79%): beats by CNY0.03, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus
    Guidewire Software (GWRE 66.50, -0.69, -1.03%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides OctQ revs above consensus; guides FY23 mid-point of revs above consensus
    UiPath (PATH 12.14, -3.45, -22.13%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides OctQ revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

    #43242

    Dow 31,581.28 435.98 1.40%
    S&P 500 3,979.89 71.70 1.83%
    Nasdaq 11,791.90 246.99 2.14%
    GlobalDow 3,489.71 19.37 0.56%
    Gold 1,728.90 16.00 0.93%
    Oil 82.09 -4.79 -5.51%
    BITCOIN 18,991


    #43277
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: +2.3%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.0%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3%
    India’s Sensex: +1.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.3%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.8%

    #43278
    Truman
    Participant

    Evergrande’s headquarters in Hong Kong have reportedly been seized by a lender. Chinese health authorities are encouraging people to avoid travel during next National Day holidays at the start of October. Japan’s deputy chief cabinet secretary said that the yen’s movement is being watched with a strong sense of urgency. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said that the case for slower rate hikes becomes clearer as rates rise.
    China’s August FX Reserves $3.055 trln (expected $3.079 trln; last $3.104 trln)
    Japan’s Q2 GDP 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.7%; last 0.5%); 3.5% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 2.2%). Q2 Capital Expenditure 2.0% qtr/qtr (expected 1.8%; last 1.4%) and Q2 Private Consumption 1.2% qtr/qtr (expected 1.1%; last 0.1%). July Current Account surplus JPY229 bln (expected surplus of JPY714 bln; last deficit of JPY132 bln). August Economy Watchers Current Index 45.5 (last 43.8)
    Australia’s July trade surplus AUD8.733 bln (expected surplus of AUD14.50 bln; last surplus of AUD17.13 bln). July Imports 5.0% m/m (last 0.7%) and Exports -10.0% yr/yr (last 4.9%)
    New Zealand’s Q2 Manufacturing Sales Volume -4.9% qtr/qtr (last -3.5%)

    #43279
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade near their flat lines with Germany’s DAX (-0.5%) struggling to keep up.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.9%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.4%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.6%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.4%

    #43280
    Truman
    Participant

    British Prime Minister Truss announced that a fracking ban will be lifted and that household energy bills will be limited to GBP2,500 per annum for the next two years.
    Germany is also expected to announce energy subsidies for households and businesses, though Germany’s economy minister said that subsidies can’t continue forever.
    Germany’s Institute for Solid State Research forecast a recession for next year.
    The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 75-bps rate hike at 8:15 ET, followed by ECB President Lagarde’s press conference at 10:15 ET.
    France’s Q2 nonfarm payrolls 0.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; last 0.3%). July trade deficit EUR14.50 bln (expected deficit of EUR13.60 bln; last deficit of EUR13.10 bln). July Current Account deficit EUR5.30 bln (last deficit of EUR1.50 bln)
    Swiss August Unemployment Rate 2.1% (expected 2.2%; last 2.2%)

    #43281
    Truman
    Participant

    McCormick (MKC 79.46, -5.54, -6.52%): guides Q3 (Aug) EPS and revs below consensus and trims its FY22 outlook due to inflationary pressures resulting in higher price elasticity than expected as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions
    American Eagle (AEO 10.06, -1.53, -13.20%): misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; will pause dividend; plans to cut expenses and cap-ex
    GameStop (GME 25.60, +1.56, +6.49%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; enters into partnership with FTX, making company FTX’s preferred retail partner in the U.S.
    Casey’s General (CASY 217.90, -3.50, -1.58%): beats by $0.41, reports revs in-line, inside comps +6.3%, fuel gallons comps -2.3%; reaffirms FY23 outlook of +4-6% inside comps and fuel gallons comps of flat to +2%
    Asana (ASAN 23.54, +4.50, +23.63%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus; expects to reach free cash flow positive before the end of CY24
    Advanced Micro (AMD 80.44, +0.83, +1.04%): initiated with a Buy at Stifel
    First Solar (FSLR 139.24, +4.44, +3.29%): upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman Sachs

    #43282
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity futures continue to pullback as Fed Chair Powell’s discussion at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference gets underway.

    The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 73 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 134 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

    For the week ending September 3, initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 222,000 (consensus 246,000). That is the lowest levels of initial claims since late May. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 27 increased by 36,000 to 1.473 million.

    The key takeaway from the report remains the same: initial claims are running at levels indicative of a tight labor market that is still running against the grain of the Fed’s policy aim.

    Treasury yields moved noticeably higher after the release. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.48% while the 10-yr note yield is flat at 3.27%.

    The US Dollar Index is making big upside moves, up 0.4% to 110.24.

    #43283
    Truman
    Participant

    Dow -139.89 at 31443.35, Nasdaq -56.06 at 11735.81, S&P -16.07 at 3963.87

    The stock market opened to modest losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trails behind its peers.

    There’s fairly broad selling interest at the open. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), and the S&P 500 all show a modest loss.

    The Treasury market is mixed with the 2-yr note yield up three basis points to 3.48% while the 10-yr note yield is flat at 3.26%.

    Energy complex futures are making big upside moves.
    WTI crude oil futures are up 2.1% to $83.84/bbl.
    Natural gas futures are up 1.5% to $7.96/mmbtu.

    #43303

    Ohhh the humanity 😉 🙂

    #43306

    ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL 🙂 🙂 🙂
    Game: Bills vs. Rams
    Date: Sept. 8, 2022 8:20 EDT
    TV channel: NBC

    A matchup between Super Bowl champs and Super Bowl hopefuls kicks off the 2022 NFL season. The first game of the 2022 NFL season could offer a preview of the last game of the NFL season. Here’s how to watch the season opener between Buffalo and Los Angeles:

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