Traders Market Weekly: Geopolitics, ECB and Apple

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    September 4 -10, 2022 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Image: R
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Geopolitics, ECB and Apple]


    Monday – September 5

    All day – The U.S. stock market is closed for observance of the Labor Day holiday.

    OPEC+ will meet to discuss potential output cuts.

    Ahead of the meeting, OPEC+ revised estimates and said it now sees demand lagging supply by 400K barrels per day vs. a prior expectation of 900K bpd and expects a market deficit of 300,000 bpd in its base case for 2023.


    Tuesday – September 6

    Options trading volume has jumped on Bright Green Corporation (BGXX) and Ares Capital (ARCC). Short interest remains at a high level on electric vehicle stocks EVgo (EVGO), Blink Charging (BLNK), and Workhorse Group (WKHS). Social media interest on Addentax Group Corp. (ATXG) is sky-high after a series of dizzying moves.

    All week – The conference schedule includes

    Citi Global Technology Conference, the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference, the Goldman Sachs 29th Annual Global Retailing Conference, the Bank of America Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference, the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, the Evercore ISI 2nd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, the KBW Insurance Conference, the Citi BioPharma Conference, and the Bank of America Gaming & Lodging Conference.

    Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) shareholders are scheduled to vote on whether they want to extend the SPAC’s ability to do a transaction by another year to September 8, 2023

    The three-day Code Conference will begin.

    Alphabet (GOOG) CEO Sundar Pichai, Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy, Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel, Mark Cuban, California Governor Gavin Newsom and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg are some of the scheduled speakers.

    9:00 a.m. Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) will hold an Investor Day event with updates on the company’s financial outlook and operating strategy.


    Wednesday – September 7

    All day – Cohn Robbins Holdings Corp (CRHC) will hold an extraordinary meeting to vote on the deal to combine with Allwyn Entertainment AG. The Gary Cohn-led firm has a backstop agreement with PPF Group to help acquire the lottery, entertainment, and digital gaming operator.

    9:45 a.m. HubSpot (HUBS) will hold its analyst day event with a full day’s worth of talks from top management. Shares of HubSpot have rallied in the past following its analyst day event.

    9:45 a.m. Shopify (SHOP) CFO Amy Shapiro will take part in a fireside chat at the Citi Global Technology Conference. Shares of Shopify (SHOP) have been active in the past during similar conference appearances.

    12:00 p.m. Trimble (TRMB) will provide in-depth overview of the company’s Connect & Scale strategy and related business and financial objectives.

    1:00 p.m Apple (AAPL) will hold its annual big September event during which the new iPhone 14 lineup is expected to be revealed. Product news on Apple Watches and the new AirPods Pro is also anticipated. Over the last five years, shares of Apple have been a slight outperformer compared to the broad market in the week before its products events, but have gently underperformed tech benchmarks on average for the week after the event.
    2:00 p.m The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book update.

    4:30 p.m Erasca (ERAS) will host a research and development day with a focus on the company’s ERAS-007 ERK1/2 inhibitor and ERAS-601 SHP2 inhibitor in advanced solid tumors. Shares of Erasca have rallied in the past after ERAS-007 data was released.

    Postmarket – GameStop (GME) will report earnings with options trading implying a swing up or down of 16%. Shares of GameStop rose 10% the last time the retailer spilled numbers.

    Another stock with an elevated level of short interest, Academy Sports And Outdoors (ASO), will also report earnings. Options trading is implying a 9% swing for ASO after the report drops.


    Thursday – September 8

    All day – Oral arguments are scheduled in the Department of Justice’s lawsuit to block UnitedHealth’s (UNH) planned purchase of Change Healthcare (CHNG) in October.

    All day – The IPO lockup period expires on a certain block of Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) shares for early investors.

    7:15 a.m. The European Central Bank will release a policy decision statement. The ECB decision has more drama than normal with economists not in full agreement if the rate hike will be 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

    9:00 a.m. Moderna (MRNA) will host its virtual R&D Day with presentations from top execs and clinical team leaders. Looking to the future, Bank of America thinks Moderna’s nucleic acid expertise could be the key for the company to generate the highest returns long-term for investors.

    9:00 a.m. Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO) will hold an investor day event.

    9:00 a.m. Procter & Gamble (PG) will present at the Barclays Consumer Staples Conference.

    9:10 a.m. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell will appear for a talk at the Cato Institute Annual Monetary Conference. It is a light week of FOMC speakers which may increase the focus on the Powell appearance.

    10:30 a.m. Coca-Cola Company (KO) CEO James Quincey will present at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference.

    11:00 a.m. Shareholders with Hemisphere Media Group (HMTV) will vote on the acquisition offer from Searchlight Capital.

    1:00 p.m. D.R. Horton (DHI) will hold an investor day event with the theme “Where Tech Connects.” The company plans to update on its sales growth strategy, as well as the financial model and outlook.

    Friday – September 9

    All day – Tapestry (TPR) will host an Investor Day event with a focus on the company’s long-term strategic initiatives and financial outlook.

    8:00 a.m. Nike (NKE) will hold its annual shareholder meeting. The items up for a vote include the normal executive pay package proposal and a more controversial proposal to pause sourcing of cotton and other raw materials from China until the U.S. government Business Advisory on forced labor in Uyghur Region is lifted or rescinded. Nike’s (NKE) board has advised shareholders to vote against the proposal, noting that it does not directly source cotton or raw material.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Tuesday.

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: flat
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.1%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +1.4%
    India’s Sensex: -0.1%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.3%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%


    China’s Shanghai Composite led the winners, jumping 1.4% after the PBOC said the foreign exchange required reserve ratio for financial institutions will be cut by 200 basis points to 6.00%, effective September 15. That move is aimed at supporting the yuan, although the PBOC on Tuesday set the yuan’s midpoint at a 2-yr low of 6.9096.
    Chinese city Guiyang, the capital of the Guizhou province, is also in a Covid-related lockdown now.
    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash target rate by 50 basis points to 2.35%, as expected, and said more rate hikes are likely but won’t be on a pre-set path.
    Japan’s July household spending was weaker than expected, declining 1.4% month-over-month after increasing 1.5% in June. USD/JPY at 141.78, which is a new 24-year low.
    Japan’s July Household Spending -1.4% month-over-month (expected -0.6%; last +1.5%) and +3.4% year-over-year (expected +4.2%; last +3.5%)
    Australia’s Q2 Current Account AUD 18.3 bln (expected AUD 20.8 bln; last AUD 2.8 bln)


    Major European indices are mostly higher despite worsening energy supply issues.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
    Germany’s DAX: +0.9%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.3%
    France’s CAC 40: +0.3%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: flat



    According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia has indicated that the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be long lasting.
    European leaders are pushing plans to conserve energy use and exploring ideas related to energy price caps. France’s President Macron is urging a 10% cut in energy use, according to AP.
    Liz Truss, who will replace Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister, is expected to unveil a GBP130 bln fiscal plan to help households offset the rising cost of energy, according to Bloomberg.
    A focal point this week will be the ECB meeting on Thursday and whether the central bank raises its key policy rate by 50 basis points or 75 basis points. EUR/USD +0.1% to 0.9930.
    Germany’s July Factory Orders -1.1% month-over-month (expected -0.5%; last -0.3%)
    UK’s August Construction PMI 49.2 (expected 48.0; last 48.9)


    The S&P 500 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 77 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 203 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.


    Energy complex futures are trending lower

    WTI crude oil futures down 0.2% to $86.68/bbl.
    Natural gas futures are down 1.4% to $8.66/mmbtu.


    Tesla (TSLA 271.28, +1.07, +0.40%): upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research
    CVS Health (CVS 99.78, +0.34, +0.34%): Signify Health to be acquired by CVS Health (CVS) for $30.50 per share
    Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 7.31, -1.32, -15.30%): mourns the loss of CFO; Medical examiner rules death of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) CFO Gustavo Arnal a suicide, according to Reuters.
    Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC 19.35, -5.64, -22.57%): Truth Social did not get shareholder support from Digital World (DWAC) to extend SPAC deal (SPACS), according to Reuters.


    ^^^^ +1s for all the excellent posts & insight above 🙂
    As the WALL STREET “pit traders” return from holiday – stocks are bouncing like a YO-YO
    or like a DAISY being plucked by FOMC — Jerome loves me, he loves me NOT” – lol
    As “summer is over” with start of schools – GAS/OIL declines continue due to LESS DEMAND
    We’re likely in “LITE RECESSION” and INFLATION will probably move more to 5-6% levels
    Plus our “victory gardens” help us on food costs. As I’ve always said “the good & hard-working
    people of USA will always prevail regardless of politics or the current economic downturn”


    and this awesome FAV artist will be in concert in our area in near future
    As WALL STREET is currently caught between the moon & NYC – lol 🙂


    Dow 31,145.30 -173.14 -0.55%
    S&P 500 3,908.19 -16.07 -0.41%
    Nasdaq 11,544.91 -85.96 -0.74%
    GlobalDow 3,469.14 -20.49 -0.59%
    Gold 1,711.40 -11.20 -0.65%
    Oil 86.74 -0.13 -0.15%

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