Traders Market Weekly: Global Market Dislocation at a Precipice

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  • #43927
    Truman
    Participant

    Monday – September 19

    Options trading volume is high again on Lucid Group (LCID).
    Short interest is elevated on IGM Biosciences (IGMS).
    Social media interest on Adobe (ADBE) jumped significantly following the company’s earnings report.

    All day – Conservative YouTube competitor Rumble (RUM) starts trading on the Nasdaq after a de-spac transaction.

    10:15 a.m. Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) will host an investor meeting to provide investors with an update on the apparel giant’s strategic growth plan and key initiatives. Shares of Ralph Lauren have rallied in the past after similar events. Analysts are watching in particular if the apparel giant makes a change to its current mid-teens operating margin target for the medium term.

    #43928
    Truman
    Participant

    The conference schedule features

    Wells Fargo Consumer Conference,
    J.P. Morgan 13th Annual U.S. All Stars Conference,
    Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference,
    Sidoti Fall Virtual Investor Conference,
    Credit Suisse Houston Oil & Gas Conference,
    Jefferies Pet Care & Wellness Conference,
    Wolfe Research Fall Consumer Conference,
    D.A. Davidson 21st Annual Diversified Industrials & Services Conference.

    #43929
    Truman
    Participant

    Tuesday – September 20

    All day – Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will give a keynote address at the GTC 2022 Conference. Shares of Nvidia have been active in the past after the company’s GTC event attracted investor interest and new bull ratings.

    All day – Salesforce (CRM) will hold its annual DreamForce conference. Co-CEOs Marc Benioff and Bret Taylor are scheduled to speak, as well as Vimeo (VMEO) CEO Anjali Sud, NBA Hall-of-Famer Magic Johnson, and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.

    All day – Sumo Logic (SUMO) will host an Investor Day event.

    1:00 p.m. Omnicell (OMCL) will host an Investor Day event. The management team will cover the company’s business strategy, industry position and long-term financial outlook.

    #43930
    Truman
    Participant

    Wednesday – September 21

    All day – Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will host an investor day with management planning to outline the company’s current roadmap, development of the Neutron launch vehicle and future growth opportunities. Deutsche Bank issued a catalyst call buy idea on Rocket Lab ahead of the event.

    All day – Biotech firm Jupiter Neurosciences (JUNS) is expected to start trading.

    10:00 a.m. Grainger (GWW) and iRhythm Technologies, Inc. (IRTC) both have investor day events scheduled.

    2:00 p.m. The Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee will announce its decision on interest rates. At publication time, futures trading was implying an 84% probability of a 75-point rate hike and a 16% probability of a 100-point rate increase.

    2:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Board President Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.

    #43931
    Truman
    Participant

    Thursday – September 22

    All day – Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) will hold its Capital Markets Day event in what is typically a closely-watched event in the aviation industry.

    All day – HealthStream (HSTM) will host a three-hour virtual Investor Day. The company plans to issue financial updates and discuss plans to continue to grow through innovation.

    All day – Immune therapeutics developer Alopexx (ALPX) is expected to start trading.
    All day – Entegris (ENTG) will hold an investor and analyst meeting.
    All day – Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) will conduct an Investor Day event featuring presentations from top execs covering Columbia, SOREL, Mountain Hardwear and prAna’s product innovations, strategies, and growth plans.

    3:00 p.m. Qualcomm (QCOM) will hold an Automotive Investor Day event that will include discussion on its Snapdragon digital chassis and the $19B pipeline opportunity it sees in the auto part of the business.

    5:30 p.m. FedEx (FDX) will hold a conference call after reporting earnings. While the shipping giant already rattled the market with a sharp cut in guidance, the cadence and granular details from management could impact UPS (UPS) and the transportation sector in general.

    F

    #43932
    Truman
    Participant

    Friday – September 23

    The S&P 500 Index has gained in six of the last eight post-OpEx weeks and the spread between the performance in the week before options expirations and the week after is reported to be the widest since 1990.

    #43933
    Truman
    Participant

    Citi looking at more growth-style stock selection in all sectors.

    “Our base case year end ‘22 price target of 4200 for the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is predicated on both a scenario weighted probability approach and 18-19x a $226 full year ’22 top down earnings estimate,” strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note.

    “We project a growing recession probability during 1H ‘23. Over the intermediate term expect volatility between a 3650-4700 range as investors weigh weaker growth versus a potentially less hawkish Fed,” Chronert said.

    “There is no change to our view that multiple compression, driven by rising real rates and Fed policy expectations, has mostly run its course,” he said. “Earnings expectations become the more important toggle from here.”

    “With this note, we move more toward the Growth-style and further away from our style agnostic call since May. Among factors, we prefer Quality and Momentum over Min/Low Vol and Enhanced Value.”

    We “include stock screen for each GICS sector of Citi’s top Buy- and Sell-rated stocks based on expected total return (ETR),” Chronert added. “We include S&P 1500 (SPTM) names to broaden our scope for investors looking for specific alpha opportunities.”

    The picks by sector are:

    Communications Services (XLC), Citi rates Market Weight

    Buys

    DISH Network (DISH), ETR 96.6%
    Paramount Global (PARA), 64.9%
    Telephone and Data Systems (TDS), 64.9%
    Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), 59.5%
    Meta Platforms (META), 48.4%
    Disney (DIS), 44.4%
    AT&T (T), 37.9%
    Cogent Communications (CCOI), 37.3%
    Alphabet (GOOGL), 36%
    Omnicom (OMC), 29.2%

    Sells

    Gannett (GCI), -20.6%
    Consolidated Communication (CNSL), -8.6%

    Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Underweight

    Buys

    General Motors (GM), 114%
    MGM Resorts (MGM), 68.5%
    Boot Barn (BOOT), 68.9%
    Stride (LRN), 63.3%
    YETI (YETI), 60.6%
    Las Vegas Sands (LVS), 46.1%
    Amazon.com (AMZN), 46.5%
    Booking Holdings (BKNG), 43.1%
    Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), 37.2%

    Sells

    Tesla (TSLA), 53.5%
    Gap (GPS), -22.2%
    Carter’s (CRI), -11.8%

    Consumer Staples (XLP), Market Weight

    Buys

    Simply Good Foods (SMPL), 61.7%
    BellRing Brands (BRBR), 44.4%
    Walmart (WMT), 23%
    Hostess Brands (TWNK), 17.2%

    Sells

    Kroger (KR), -4.3%

    Energy (XLE), Market Weight

    Buys

    Oceaneering International (OII), 110.1%
    Baker Hughes (BKR), 67.4%
    Haliburton (HAL), 64.9%
    ProPetro Holding (PUMP), 62.4%
    Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), 43.7%
    APA (APA), 41%
    ChampionX (CHX), 37.2%
    Schlumberger (SLB), 27.4%
    Pioneer Natural (PXD), 13.1%
    Diamondback Energy (FANG), 12.2%

    Financials (XLF), Underweight

    Buys

    Synchrony Financial (SYF), 56.2%
    Capital One (COF), 55.1%
    Voya Financial (VOYA), 31.9%
    Hartford Financial (HIG), 30.2%
    Comerica (CMA), 22.3%
    SLM (SLM), 19%
    Bank of America (BAC), 18.5%
    MetLife (MET), 18.9%
    JPMorgan Chase (JPM), 17.9%
    Allstate (ALL), 17.3%

    Sells

    Progressive (PGR), -19%
    Principal Financial (PFG), -16.5%
    Reinsurance Group (RGA), -13.4%
    Janus Henderson (JHG), -0.8%

    Healthcare (XLV), Overweight

    Buys

    Owens & Minor (OMI), 108.8%
    Community Health Systems (CYH), 102.7%
    OraSure Technologies (OSUR), 69.1%
    Tandem Diabetes (TNDM), 67.1%
    Sotera Health (SHC), 65.8%
    Tenet Healthcare (THC), 65.6%
    Arcus Biosciences (RCUS), 48.9%
    Bruker (BRKR), 46.9%
    Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO), 48.1%
    Universal Health Services (UHS), 42.4%

    Sells

    Becton Dickinson (BDX), -7.2%

    Industrials (XLI), Market Weight

    Buys

    Generac Holdings (GNRC), 82.1%
    Delta Air Lines (DAL), 71.3%
    United Airlines (UAL), 44%
    Boeing (BA), 39.5%
    GXO Logistics (GXO), 39.5%
    GE (GE), 32.5%
    Middleby (MIDD), 29.8%
    United Rentals (URI), 29.9%
    Flowserve (FLS), 30.1%
    Jacobs Solutions (J), 27.1%

    Sells

    Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), 5.6%

    Info Tech (XLK), Overweight

    Nvidia (NVDA), 91.9%
    NetApp (NTAP), 76.6%
    Lam Research (LRCX), 70.8%
    Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), 68.7%
    Applied Materials (AMAT), 69.8%
    FleetCor (FLT), 67.9%
    IPG Photonics (IPGP), 67.3%
    TD Synnex (SNX), 65.7%
    Western Digital (WDC), 58.9%
    FormFactor (FORM), 57.4%

    Sells

    ExlService (EXLS), -18.2%
    Xerox (XRX), 1.1%
    Cisco (CSCO), 5.2%
    Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), 7%

    Materials (XLB), Overweight

    Buys

    Newmont (NEM), 141.5%
    Steel Dynamics (STLD), 46%
    Sealed Air (SEE), 39.2%
    DuPont (DD), 38.4%
    Avent (AVNT), 33.9%
    Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS), 30.7%
    Eagle Materials (EXP), 28.9%
    Valvoline (VVV), 26.4%
    Vulcan Materials (VMC), 23.7%
    Avery Dennison (AVY), 23.1%

    Real Estate (XLRE), Market Weight

    Buys

    Digital Realty Trust (DLR), 45.6%
    Weyerhaeuser (WY), 36.4%
    Equinix (EQIX), 33.4%
    Life Storage (LSI), 34.3%
    Hudson Pacific (HPP), 33.5%
    Easterly Government Properties (DEA), 30.6%
    Ventas (VTR), 30.7%
    Corporate Office Properties (OFC), 28.6%
    Crown Castle (CCI), 27.3%
    Kilroy Realty (KRC), 24.9%

    Sells

    Macerich (MAC), -4.4%

    Utilities (XLU), Underweight

    Buys

    NRG (NRG), 18.6%
    Edison (EIX), 19.8%
    Duke Energy (DUK), 16.7%
    DTE Energy (DTE), 14.5%
    AES (AES), 3.5%

    #43966
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Respect for the Aged Day

    —Equity Markets—

    Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.0%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
    India’s Sensex: +0.5%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.1%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%

    #43967
    Truman
    Participant

    Hong Kong’s August Unemployment Rate 4.1% (last 4.3%)

    #43968
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade in the red while the U.K.’s FTSE is closed for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.

    —Equity Markets—

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.3%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: CLOSED
    France’s CAC 40: -1.0%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.7%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.4%

    #43969
    Truman
    Participant

    Workers at the port of Liverpool went on strike that is expected to last two weeks.
    European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said that the ECB could raise rates over the next few meetings and into 2023.
    The EU is implementing a “single market emergency instrument” that will allow Brussels to force member states to stockpile certain products.
    Eurozone’s July Construction Output 0.27% m/m (last -1.16%)

    #43970
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P futures vs fair value: -28.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -87.50.

    Futures for the major indices lifted off their lows recently.
    The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.
    The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 84 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 232 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.

    The 2-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 3.94% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.47%.

    Energy complex futures continue a downward trend.

    WTI crude oil futures are down 3.4% to $81.85/bbl
    Natural gas futures are down 2.5% to $7.57/mmbtu.

    #43971
    Truman
    Participant

    Adobe (ADBE 294.90, -4.60, -1.54%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo
    AutoZone (AZO 2,210.00, +44.35, +2.05%): beats by $1.89, beats on revs
    Purple Innovation (PRPL 3.7300, +0.94, +33.69%): confirms it received an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from Coliseum Capital Management to acquire all of the outstanding capital stock of Purple for $4.35 per share
    Bluebirdbio (BLUE 6.74, +0.40, +6.31%): receives FDA accelerated approval for SKYSONA Gene Therapy

    #43972
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries shorter tenors relative weakness after underperforming last week.

    2-yr: +8 bps to 3.93%
    3-yr: +9 bps to 3.89%
    5-yr: +7 bps to 3.70%
    10-yr: +6 bps to 3.51%
    30-yr: +4 bps to 3.56%

    #44007

    Dow 31,019.68 197.26 0.64%
    S&P 500 3,899.89 26.56 0.69%
    Nasdaq 11,535.02 86.62 0.76%
    GlobalDow 3,463.10 11.48 0.33%
    Gold 1,684.50 1.00 0.06%
    Oil 85.43 0.32 0.38

    the SUMMER of 2022 will be ending soon – enjoy while you can this week 🙂

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