Traders Market Weekly: Fed and BOJ Dribble Ahead

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  • #74722

    June 9, 2024 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Image: Cracks App
    [See the full post at: Traders Market Weekly: Fed and BOJ Dribble Ahead]

    #74726

    Dow 38,868.04 69.05 0.18%
    S&P 500 5,360.79 13.80 0.26%
    Nasdaq 17,192.53 59.40 0.35%
    VIX 12.76 0.54 4.42%
    Gold 2,326.70 1.70 0.07%
    Oil 77.89 2.36 3.12%

    SUPER GREEN finish with new NASDAQ & SP500 records 🙂

    #74733

    Dow 38,747.42 -120.62 -0.31%
    S&P 500 5,375.32 14.53 0.27%
    Nasdaq 17,343.55 151.02 0.88%
    VIX 12.92 0.18 1.41%
    Gold 2,332.40 5.40 0.23%
    Oil 77.84 0.10 0.13%

    #74751
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.3%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.3%,
    India’s Sensex: +0.2%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.8%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

    #74752
    Truman
    Participant

    China
    China’s CPI deflated slightly in May (-0.1% m/m) while PPI (-1.4% yr/yr) was down on a yr/yr basis for the 20th month in a row.
    May CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.1%); 0.3% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%).
    May PPI -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.5%; last -2.5%)

    Japan
    PPI increased (2.4% yr/yr) at its fastest pace since mid-2023.
    Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida said that momentum needs to be maintained for wage increases outside of annual spring wage talks.

    The Minutes from Bank of Korea’s May meeting showed an agreement that conditions for easing policy are forming.

    #74753
    Truman
    Participant

    Germany
    May CPI 0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%); 2.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.2%)

    U.K.
    The U.K. reported no growth for April, though the Bank of England is not expected to announce its initial rate cut until August.
    April GDP 0.0% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 0.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.7%).
    April Construction Output -1.4% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%); -3.3% yr/yr (expected -1.8%; last -2.2%).
    April Industrial Production -0.9% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.2%); -0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last 0.5%).
    April Manufacturing Production -1.4% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.3%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 2.3%).
    April trade deficit GBP19.61 bln (expected deficit of GBP14.20 bln; last deficit of GBP13.97 bln)

    The European Union will impose additional tariffs on imports of electric vehicles from China next month.

    Bank of France maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.8% and lowered the outlook for 2025 to 1.2% from 1.5%.

    European Central Bank policymaker Kazaks repeated that it would be best to lower rates in gradual fashion.

    #74754
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade in the green.
    STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.5%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.7%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.4%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.9%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.4%.

    #74755
    Truman
    Participant

    Oracle (ORCL 134.00, +10.12, +8.2%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; FY25 CapEx to double yr/yr; projects Q1 EPS in-line with consensus; expects Q1 revenue growth of +6-7% in cc
    Alphabet (GOOG 178.71, +0.52, +0.3%): Google Cloud forms multi-cloud partnership with ORCL

    Casey’s General (CASY 342.00, +15.47, +4.7%): beats by $0.62, beats on revs, comps up +5.6%; issues FY25 outlook; increases dividend

    GameStop (GME 30.44, -0.05, -0.2%): has completed its previously disclosed “at-the-market” equity offering program; Ryan Cohen (RC Ventures) discloses 8.6% passive stake as of June 10, down from 10.5% on May 22

    Take-Two (TTWO 157.12, -1.39, -0.9%): announces secondary offering of common stock by Embracer Group AB

    Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 17.53, +0.03, +0.2%): CEO appears on Bloomberg TV, says consumer demand continues to be very robust
    FedEx (FDX 252.50, +0.07, +0.03%): announced a workforce reduction plan; will impact between 1,700 and 2,000 employees in Europ

    #74756
    Truman
    Participant

    Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 15.6% with refinance applications surging 28% and purchase applications increasing 9%.

    #74761
    Truman
    Participant

    US. CPI in May y/y disinflation i.e. prices moved in the Fed’s desired direction

    – y/y Up 3.3% v 3.4% in April, core-CPI up 3.4%, v 3.6% in April.
    – m/m Unch (consensus 0.1%) following +0.3% in April, core-CPI up 0.2% m/m (consensus 0.3%) following +0.3% in April.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 21 hours ago by Truman.
    #74764
    Truman
    Participant

    Following #CPI Treasury yields moved lower acting as additional support for equities.
    10-yr note yield at 4.40% before CPI report, 4.31% now
    2-yr note yield moved from 4.83% to 4.70%
    #SP500 futures up 48, +0.9% above fair value
    #Nasdaq 100 futures up 181, +0.9% above fair value

    #74765
    Truman
    Participant

    With disinflation and lower yields after May CPI data, the #USD moved sharply lower as forwards shrunk, and #Gold moved sharply higher accordingly

    #74769

    Dow 38,712.21 -35.21 -0.09%
    S&P 500 5,421.03 45.71 0.85%
    Nasdaq 17,608.44 264.89 1.53%
    VIX 12.04 -0.81 -6.30%
    Gold 2,340.80 14.20 0.61%
    Oil 78.32 0.42 0.54%

    #74780

    Dow 38,647.10 -65.11 -0.17%
    S&P 500 5,433.74 12.71 0.23%
    Nasdaq 17,667.56 59.12 0.34%
    VIX 11.94 -0.10 -0.83%
    Gold 2,319.70 -35.10 -1.49%
    Oil 77.93 -0.57 -0.73%

    #74786
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