Traders Market Weekly: Fear, Greed, War and Volatility

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    Live Nation (LYV 90.15, -9.62, -9.6%): DOJ will likely file antitrust suit against Live Nation in May, according to WSJ

    Microsoft (MSFT 414.93, +1.29, +0.3%): Invests $1.5 Billion in Abu Dhabi’s G42 to Accelerate AI Development and Global Expansion

    Int’l Paper (IP 37.49, +0.72, +2.0%): to acquire DS Smith


    Rivian (RIVN 8.34, -0.06, -0.7%): upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS

    AMD (AMD 161.82, +1.40, +0.9%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC


    Total housing starts in March declined 14.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.321 million units (consensus 1.485 million) and building permits declined 4.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.458 million units ( consensus 1.518 million).

    The key takeaway from the report is that it provided no signs of relief for a supply-constrained housing market.

    Single-unit starts were down by double-digit percentages in every region except the West (+1.3%); meanwhile, building permits — a leading indicator — for single-family units were down in every region, highlighted by a 5.3% decline in the South, which is the country’s largest housing market.


    Total industrial production increased 0.4% month-over-month in March (consensus 0.4%) after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.1%) in February. The capacity utilization rate hit 78.4% (consensus 78.6%), which was up from 78.2% in February. Total industrial production was flat yr/yr while the capacity utilization rate was 1.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

    The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production remained on a growth track in March, driven by gains in manufacturing output that one would expect to see in a growing economy.

    Treasury yields moved higher in response.

    The 10-yr note yield moved from 4.66% to 4.68% and the 2-yr note yield moved from 4.95% to 4.96%.


    Dow 37766.81 +31.70 (0.08%)
    Nasdaq 15843.65 -41.37 (-0.26%)
    SP 500 5046.10 -15.72 (-0.31%)

    10-yr Note -26/32 4.661
    NYSE Adv 684 Dec 2036 Vol 181 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 1248 Dec 2763 Vol 1.9 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Information Technology, Consumer Staples, Health Care
    Weak: Real Estate, Utilities, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Materials

    Moving the Market
    — DJIA outperforming thanks to earnings-related gain in UnitedHealth (UNH)
    — Jump in market rates in response to this morning’s data
    — Gains in some mega cap names limiting downside moves for major indices

    The Russell 2000 is underperforming, trading down 1.0%. This price action is related to weakness in regional bank and energy-related shares.

    Losses in regional bank stocks also has the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) trading down 1.4% and weakness in energy shares has the S&P 500 energy sector trading 1.5% lower.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mixed showing on Wednesday.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.3%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: UNCH,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +2.1%,
    India’s Sensex: HOLIDAY,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.0%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.
    China’s Shanghai Composite (+2.1%) showed relative strength while India’s markets were closed for a holiday.

    Japan’s trade balance report for March showed that exports to China were up 12.6% yr/yr while exports of semiconductors were up 9.5% yr/yr.
    March trade deficit JPY700 bln (expected deficit of JPY280 bln; last deficit of JPY570 bln).
    March Imports -4.9% yr/yr (last 0.5%)
    Exports 7.3% yr/yr (last 7.8%).
    April Reuters Tankan Index 9 (last 10)

    March trade surplus SGD4.657 bln (last surplus of SGD5.960 bln)

    March MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last 0.1%)

    New Zealand
    New Zealand’s CPI decelerated to its slowest pace since mid-2021 in the reading for Q1.
    Q1 CPI 0.6% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.5%); 4.0% yr/yr (last 4.7%)

    The International Monetary Fund raised its 2024 growth forecast for China to 5.2% from 4.6% and affirmed its growth forecast for Japan at 0.9%.
    Fitch lowered its outlook on the Chinese state banking sector to Negative from Stable.


    Dow 37,753.31 -45.66 -0.12%
    S&P 500 5,022.21 -29.20 -0.58%
    Nasdaq 15,683.37 -181.88 -1.15%
    VIX 17.94 -0.46 -2.50%
    Gold 2,388.40 -19.40 -0.81%
    Oil 82.76 -2.60 -3.05%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.3%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.8%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
    India’s Sensex: -0.6%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: +2.0%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%.

    February Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.6 (expected 0.8; last -10.1)
    There is some speculation that Japanese officials could intervene in the foreign exchange market during the ongoing meetings of G-20, G-7, the IMF, and the World Bank in Washington.

    Hong Kong
    March Unemployment Rate 3.0% (last 2.9%)

    March Employment Change -6,600 (expected 7,200; last 117,600) and full employment change 27,900 (last 79,400).
    March Unemployment Rate 3.9% (expected 3.9%; last 3.7%)
    March Participation Rate 66.6% (last 66.7%).
    Q1 NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -2 (last -6)

    Steelmakers in South Korea, Japan, and India displayed strength after the Biden administration threatened to increase tariffs on imports of steel from China.

    Macau received 88.8 mln visitors in Q1, representing yr/yr growth of nearly 80%.


    Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%,
    Germany’s DAX: -0.1%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.1%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.3%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

    Germany’s DAX (-0.1%) lags with biotech name Sartorius down more than 10.0% after reporting quarterly results.

    February Current Account surplus EUR29.5 bln (expected surplus of EUR45.2 bln; last surplus of EUR39.3 bln).
    February Construction Output 1.83% m/m (last 0.19%)
    European Central Bank policymakers have voiced support for a rate cut in June with policymaker Vasle saying that he expects about 100 bps worth of cuts this year.

    March trade surplus CHF3.542 bln (expected surplus of CHF3.220 bln; last surplus of CHF3.680 bln)

    Bank of England Governor Bailey said that inflation has followed the expected path and should show a “strong drop” next month.


    Kinder Morgan (KMI 17.82, +0.06, +0.3%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus
    Discover Financial Services (DFS 121.20, +1.31, +1.1%): misses by $1.85, NII increased 11%; On February 20, 2024, company agreed to be acquired by Capital One (COF) in all-stock transaction
    CSX (CSX 34.84, +0.68, +2.0%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line, volumes up 3%; expects minimal impact from Baltimore port closure; reaffirms FY24 outlook
    Las Vegas Sands (LVS 48.25, -1.98, -3.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs
    Alcoa (AA 36.24, +0.69, +1.9%): misses by $0.17, beats on revs
    Elevance Health (ELV 521.04, +12.07, +2.4%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; raised its FY24 EPS above consensus
    D.R. Horton (DHI 149.63, +3.89, +2.7%): beats by $0.45, beats on revs; raises FY24 guidance
    Alaska Air (ALK 43.12, +0.40, +0.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line
    Comerica (CMA 50.13, +0.31, +0.6%): beats by $0.20
    KeyCorp (KEY 14.16, -0.27, -1.9%): reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs
    Apogee Enterprises (APOG 56.25, +0.33, +0.6%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    Equifax (EFX 216.10, -21.58, -9.1%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, revs guidance
    Synovus (SNV 33.74, -2.88, -7.9%): reports Q1 (Mar) results, misses on revs; provides updated FY24 guidance in slides: expects adjusted revenue growth at low end of previous forecast; keeps loan and core deposit growth predictions unchanged
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 136.96, -2.07, -1.5%): beats by $0.08; beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; provides another update on the April 3rd Earthquake; expects the total impact to reduce Q2 gross margin by about 50 basis points


    Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 13 were unchanged at 212,000 (consensus 215,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 6 increased by 2,000 to 1.812 million.

    The key takeaway from the report remains the low initial claims number (a leading indicator), which continues to be indicative of a solid labor market that portends good growth dynamics for the economy.

    The Philadelphia Fed Index for April checked in at 15.5 (consensus 0.0) versus 3.2 in March. A number above 0.0 reflects an expansion in activity, so not only did manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region expand in April, it also accelerated from March. There was a pickup in the Prices Paid Index, too, which climbed to 23.0 from 3.7.

    Treasury yields are slightly higher.

    The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.61% and the 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.96%.


    market Morning

    Dow 37990.87 +237.56 (0.63%)
    Nasdaq 15707.01 +23.64 (0.15%)
    SP 500 5038.35 +16.14 (0.32%)
    10-yr Note -3/32 4.636
    NYSE Adv 1899 Dec 721 Vol 112 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2346 Dec 1522 Vol 1.5 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Materials, Energy, Real Estate
    Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary

    Moving the Market

    — Digesting latest batch of earnings news
    — Reacting to economic data
    — Jump in Treasury yields

    Many of the S&P 500 sectors are trading higher except the information technology (-0.5%), consumer staples (-0.2%), and real estate (-0.1%) sectors. The communication services (+0.7%) and financials (+0.6%) sectors trade at the top of the leaderboard.

    Ongoing weakness in the mega cap and chipmaker spaces has contributed to the mixed feeling at the index level. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is down 0.2% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index is down 1.2%.


    Existing home sales decreased 4.3% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million (consensus 4.20 million) from an unrevised 4.38 million in February. Sales were down 3.7% from the same period a year ago.

    The key takeaway from the report is that sales activity was weak at the start of the spring selling season, as high prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory got in the way of more robust selling activity.


    Dow 37,775.38 22.07 0.06%
    S&P 500 5,011.12 -11.09 -0.22%
    Nasdaq 15,601.50 -81.87 -0.52%
    VIX 17.97 -0.24 -1.32%
    Gold 2,394.90 6.50 0.27%
    Oil 82.68 -0.01 -0.01%


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -2.7% (-6.2% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.0% (-3.0% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+1.5% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: +0.8% (-1.6% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.6% (-3.4% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0% (-2.9% for the week).

    Ongoing geopolitical concerns after Israel attacked Iranian territory, though like Iran’s attack, the overnight action did not produce significant damage.
    The International Monetary Fund urged central banks in Asia to focus on domestic inflation when crafting policy rather than respond to moves made by the Fed.

    March FDI -26.1% YTD (last -19.9%)

    National CPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.0%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.8%).
    National Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 2.8%)

    central bank plans to auction gold bars on Monday and it signaled readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

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