Traders Market Weekly: Fear and Greed in Las Vegas.

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  • #73984
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.8% (+2.3% for the week),
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.1% (+8.8% for the week),
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +1.2% (+0.8% for the week),
    India’s Sensex: -0.8% (+0.9% for the week),
    South Korea’s Kospi: +1.1% (+2.5% for the week),
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.3% (+0.3% for the week).

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+2.1%) showing relative strength thanks in part to property names.

    Japan
    April Tokyo CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%) and Tokyo Core CPI 1.6% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 2.4%)
    The Japanese yen fell to a fresh 34-year low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan made no policy changes.

    Singapore
    Q1 URA Property Index 1.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.5%; last 2.8%).
    March Industrial Production -16.0% m/m (expected -8.8%; last 14.6%); -9.2% yr/yr (expected -1.5%; last 4.4%)

    Australia
    Q1 PPI 0.9% qtr/qtr (last 0.9%); 4.3% yr/yr (last 4.1%).
    Q1 Import Price Index -1.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 1.1%) and Export Price Index -2.1% qtr/qtr (last 5.6%)
    Anglo American rejected BHP Billiton’s acquisition offer.

    South Korea
    Government warned that the U.S. plan to subsidize electric vehicles will collapse if battery manufacturers remain prohibited from buying graphite from China.

    #73985
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices are looking for a higher finish to the week.

    STOXX Europe 600: +0.7% (+1.3% week-to-date),
    Germany’s DAX: +0.8% (+1.8% week-to-date),
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.5% (+2.9% week-to-date),
    France’s CAC 40: +0.4% (+0.3% week-to-date),
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.0% (+1.0% week-to-date),
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.3% (+3.7% week-to-date).

    Anglo American rejected BHP Billiton’s acquisition offer.

    Eurozone
    March M3 Money Supply 0.9% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.4%).
    March Private Sector Loans 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%) and loans to nonfinancials 0.4% (last 0.3%)

    France
    April Consumer Confidence 90 (expected 92; last 91)
    Airbus missed quarterly expectations.

    Spain
    March Retail Sales 0.6% yr/yr (last 1.8%) and Q1 Unemployment Rate 12.3% (expected 11.8%; last 11.8%)

    Germany
    German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp will sell a 20% stake in its business to a Czech holding company.

    Sweden
    Defense ministry wants to see domestic military spending increased to 2.6% of GDP.

    #73986
    Truman
    Participant

    Microsoft (MSFT 416.50, +17.46, +4.4%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Azure +31% CC vs +28% CC prior guidance; Guidance for Q4 (Jun) calculates to $63.50-64.50 bln vs. $64.57 bln FactSet consensus.
    Alphabet (GOOG 177.00, +19.05, +12.1%): beats by $0.38, beats on revs, Google Cloud revenue up 28.5%; approves initiation of cash dividend, declares cash dividend of $0.20/share; also authorizes share repurchase up to additional $70 bln of stock; Expects to deliver operating margin expansion in 2024, Capex levels to remain at similar levels as Q1
    Intel (INTC 32.25, -2.86, -8.2%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; expects yr/yr revenue and EPS growth in FY24; Continue to see Q1 as the bottom and expect sequential revenue growth to strengthen throughout the year
    Exxon Mobil (XOM 120.00, -1.33, -1.1%): misses by $0.13, beats on revs
    Chevron (CVX 164.12, -1.15, -0.7%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line
    AutoNation (AN 161.23, +0.85, +0.5%): beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line; Board authorizes an additional $1.0 bln for share repurchases
    Colgate-Palmolive (CL 91.98, +2.69, +3.0%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line
    T-Mobile US (TMUS 164.50, +0.45, +0.3%): reports Q1 (Mar) results, misses on revs
    Capital One (COF 146.08, +0.11, +0.8%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line
    L3Harris (LHX 210.00, +2.64, +1.3%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS guidance and low end of revenue guidance
    Gilead Sciences (GILD 65.31, +0.04, +0.1%): beats by $0.17, beats on revs; lowers FY24 EPS below consensus
    Mohawk (MHK 110.50, +0.23, +0.2%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS mostly ahead of consensus
    KLA Corporation (KLAC 680.01, +7.06, +1.1%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; market conditions have stabilized and co expects business levels to improve
    Atlassian (TEAM 185.44, -12.97, -6.5%): beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus; co-founder and co-CEO Scott Farquhar to step down
    Snap (SNAP 14.4, +3.04, +26.8%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs, DAUs increased 10%; guides Q2 revs above consensus, sees DAUs of approximately 431 mln in Q2

    #73987
    Truman
    Participant

    Personal income increased 0.5% month-over-month in March, as expected, while personal spending increased a larger-than-expected 0.8% consensus 0.6%). Both the PCE Price Index and the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, were up 0.3% month-over-month, which was spot-on with consensus estimates.

    On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index was up 2.7% versus 2.5% in February, and the core-PCE Price Index was up 2.8%, unchanged from February.

    The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that progress on inflation has stalled. Therefore, market participants should continue to expect the Fed to stall on any rate cut.

    #73988
    Truman
    Participant

    The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey dropped to 77.2 in the final reading for April (consensus 77.9) from 77.9 in the prior reading.

    In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 63.7. The index has held in a narrow 2.5 index point range since January.

    The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment is holding steady despite an uptick in inflation expectations. Presumably, that can be owed to the ongoing strength in the labor market and rising personal income.

    #73989
    Truman
    Participant

    Morning Market
    Dow 38186.44 +100.64 (0.26%)
    Nasdaq 15916.83 +305.07 (1.95%)
    SP 500 5098.15 +49.73 (0.99%)
    10-yr Note
    NYSE Adv 1842 Dec 871 Vol 205 mln
    Nasdaq Adv 2483 Dec 1497 Vol 2.1 bln

    Industry Watch
    Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples
    Weak: Energy, Utilities

    Moving the Market
    — Positive responses to better-than-expected earnings from MSFT and GOOG, also fueling optimism about AI
    — Weakness in energy stocks after earnings news from Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)
    — Drop in market rates supporting buying in stocks
    — Digesting the March Personal Income and Spending report

    #73997

    SUPER GREEN FINISH ON WALL STREET 🙂

    Dow 38,239.66 153.86 0.40%
    S&P 500 5,099.96 51.54 1.02%
    Nasdaq 15,927.90 316.14 2.03%
    VIX 15.03 -0.34 -2.21%
    Gold 2,350.70 8.20 0.35%
    Oil 83.65 0.08 0.10%

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