Traders Market Weekly: Bear Jitters as Risk Factors Deepen

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 80 total)
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    The major US indices are trading near their session lows:

    Dow industrial average is down 808 points or -2.48% at 31844.25
    S&P is down -119.47 points or -2.91% at 3970.47
    NASDAQ is down -405 points or -3.3% at 11579


    Outside day candles in the DAX are a big concern.

    Stoxx 600 -1.3%
    German DAX -1.3%
    UK FTSE 100 -0.9%
    Spain IBEX -0.2%
    French CAC -1.3%
    Italy MIB -0.8%

    The outside day pattern combined with the macro backdrop is a fairly good indicator that the latest bounce has run its course.


    Gold jumped $8 to $1822.

    That puts it in a rare group of assets that appreciating today. It’s also a good signal that gold can rally on a day when US stocks are down 2.5%.


    Dow 31,490.07 -1,164.52 -3.57%
    S&P 500 3,923.68 -165.17 -4.04%
    Nasdaq 11,418.15 -566.37 -4.73%
    GlobalDow 3,743.28 -82.39 -2.15%
    Gold 1,815.20 -3.70 -0.20%
    Oil 109.28 -3.12 -2.78%


    None of the Dow 30 stocks closed positive on the day:

    Walgreens, -8.39%
    Coca-Cola, -6.95%
    Walmart, -6.84%
    Procter & Gamble, -6.15%
    Nike, -5.7%
    Verizon was the best performer at -0.14%


    Other big losers on the day included:

    Target, -24.87%
    Dollar Tree, -14.42%
    Costco, -12.45%
    Chewy, -11.93%
    Game Stop -8.94%
    DoorDash -8.17%
    AirBNB -8.06%
    FedEx -8.01%
    LYFT, -7.96%
    Snap, -7.42%
    Amazon, -7.16%

    All sectors of the S&P are lower today. Consumer staples (6.6%) and consumer discretionary (-6.4%) were the worst performing sectors followed by technology (-4.7%). Utilities were the best of the worst (-1.0%).


    “When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions” – Claudius in Hamlet


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note.

    Japan’s ruling coalition is reportedly considering a higher corporate tax rate.
    There is speculation that North Korea will conduct another missile test when President Biden visits South Korea and Japan in the coming days.
    Shanghai’s vice mayor said that the city’s port has resumed most work. New Zealand raised its debt issuance forecast for the year.

    Japan’s Nikkei: -1.9%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -2.5%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.4%
    India’s Sensex: -2.6%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.3%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.7%


    Japan’s April trade deficit JPY839.20 bln (expected deficit of JPY1.15 trln; last deficit of JPY414.10 bln). April Imports 28.2% yr/yr (expected 35.0%; last 31.2%) and April Exports 12.5% yr/yr (expected 13.8%; last 14.7%). March Core Machinery Orders 7.1% m/m (expected 3.7%; last -9.8%); 7.6% yr/yr (expected 3.7%; last 4.3%)
    Australia’s April Employment Change 4,000 (expected 30,000; last 17,900) and full employment change 92,400 (last 20,000). April Unemployment Rate 3.9%, as expected (last 3.9%) and Participation Rate 66.3% (expected 66.4%; last 66.4%)
    New Zealand’s Q1 Input PPI 3.6% qtr/qtr (last 1.2%) and Output PPI 2.6% qtr/qtr (last 1.4%)
    Hong Kong’s April Unemployment Rate 5.4% (last 5.0%)


    Major European indices trade on a firmly lower note.

    British Prime Minister Johnson is reportedly blocking efforts to impose a windfall tax on energy companies.
    Meanwhile, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak acknowledged that inflation is weighing on growth.
    There was speculation that the ECB is preparing for three 25-bps hikes before the end of the year.
    German Chancellor Scholz said that his country will strengthen its defense capabilities.

    STOXX Europe 600: -1.9%
    Germany’s DAX: -1.7%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: -2.4%
    France’s CAC 40: -2.0%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.0%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.3%


    Initial claims higher than expected

    latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 218,000 ( consensus 200,000), which was above the prior week’s revised count of 197,000 (from 203,000). As for continuing claims, they decreased to 1.317 million from a revised count of 1.342 million (from 1.343 million).

    The Philadelphia Fed Index for May decreased to 2.6 ( consensus 16.5) from 17.6 in April.


    S&P futures vs fair value: -42.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -135.00.
    The S&P 500 futures are trading 42 points, or 1.1%, below fair value.


    Cisco (CSCO 42.90, -5.46): -11.3% after missing revenue estimates, guiding fiscal Q4 EPS and revenue below consensus, and expecting supply challenges experienced in AprQ to continue into JulQ. CSCO beat EPS estimates.
    BJ’s Wholesale (BJ 56.20, +2.78): +5.2% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and reaffirming its FY23 EPS guidance.
    Kohl’s (KSS 40.91, -2.22): -5.2% after missing EPS estimates and lowering its FY23 guidance.
    The Children’s Place (PLCE 37.51, -5.71): -13.2% after missing top and bottom-line estimates and guiding FY23 revenue below consensus.


    S&P 500 futures 0.8% below fair value; Nasdaq 100 futures 1.0% below fair value; DJIA futures 0.7% below fair value
    Key factors driving the futures market:
    Frayed investor sentiment following yesterday’s sharp losses
    Ongoing concerns about earnings prospects in a slower growth, high inflation environment
    President Biden invokes Defense Production Act to bolster supply of baby formula
    Shanghai reopening subways and most activity at its port has resumed
    Research points to possibility that average national gas prices could reach $5.00/gal this summer, according to CNBC
    Japan’s imports and exports in April were weaker than expected
    J.P. Morgan cuts second half 2022 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.0%; lowers 1H23 view to 1.5% from 2.1% and 2H 23 to 1.0% from 1.4%
    Cisco (CSCO) down 11.6% after posting disappointing results and warning for its July quarter
    Kohl’s (KSS) and The Children’s Place (PLCE) down 8.6% and 7.0%, respectively, after missing earnings estimates; Bath & Body Works (BBWI) down 5.1% on disappointing guidance


    Brokerage research calls of note:
    Upgrades: CSCO, PSA, RGA
    Downgrades: BK, CSX, LSI, NSC, DOC, PRI, SCHN, TGT, THO, UAA, UNP, WGO

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 80 total)
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