Traders Market Weekly: Bear Jitters as Risk Factors Deepen

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 80 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #36840
    Truman
    Participant

    Yield Check:
    2-yr: UNCH at 2.59%
    3-yr: UNCH at 2.79%
    5-yr: -2 bps to 2.87%
    10-yr: -2 bps to 2.92%
    30-yr: UNCH at 3.09%

    #36841

    ^^^ +1’s … thanks for all great posts & info above – dedicate this song below – lol 🙂

    China had weak #’s & we may be at risk for a GLOBAL recession (not only in USA alone)
    OIL, inflation, supply chain, hawkish FED are all difficult factors going forward
    in spite of great buy-on-dip rally Friday … we have to take things 1 day at time
    and use some of ideas expressed in great song below 🙂

    and a Monday BONUS – from same great 1975 album as Terry Kath (great guitarist/vocalist/writer)
    does awesome tribute to Jimi Hendrix (an awesome wa-wa pedal guitar jam at end of song)

    #36844

    Dow 32,223.42 26.76 0.08%
    S&P 500 4,008.01 -15.88 -0.39%
    Nasdaq 11,662.79 -142.21 -1.20%
    GlobalDow 3,754.55 13.23 0.35%
    Gold 1,824.90 16.70 0.92%
    Oil 114.15 3.66 3.31%

    #36870
    Truman
    Participant

    China gain of 0.7% while Japan added 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite responded favorably to news that plans would be implemented to curtail the lockdown restrictions in the city of Shanghai. In Japan, the Nikkei notched a third straight day of gains. Shipping stocks were among the leaders with Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Nippon Yusen up 4-5%.

    #36871
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: +65.0
    10 yr Note: 2.910%
    USD/JPY: 129.28 +0.14
    EUR/USD: 1.0481 +0.0048
    Europe: FTSE: +0.7% DAX: +1.4% CAC: +1.3%
    Asia: Hang Seng: +3.3% Shanghai: +0.7% Nikkei: +0.4%
    Gold (1826.70 +12.70) Silver (21.82 +0.27) Crude (114.54 +0.34)

    #36872
    Truman
    Participant

    In Europe, the major bourses are off to significantly higher starts. With the EU as China’s largest trading partner, the region applauded the news that lockdowns could be easing. Financials are representing strength with Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale up 3%. Semiconductors are also performing well with Infineon and STMicroelectronics up around 3%.

    #36873
    Truman
    Participant

    Econ data (Tuesday):
    8:30 ET: April Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%; prior 0.5%) and Core Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 1.1%)
    9:15 ET: April Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.9%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 78.6%; prior 78.3%)
    10:00 ET: March Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%; prior 1.5%) and May NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 75; prior 77)

    #36874
    Truman
    Participant

    Tuesday (May 17)
    Pre-Market: AER HD HUYA IHS JD ONON RSKD SE WMT
    After-Hours: AGYS DLO DOCS KEYS NXGN

    #36902
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone’s Q1 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%); 5.1% yr/yr (expected 5.0%; last 5.0%). Q1 Employment Change 0.5% qtr/qtr (last 0.4%)
    U.K.’s March Average Earnings Index + Bonus 7.0% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 5.6%). April Claimant Count Change -56,900 (expected -42,500; last -81,600). March three-month employment change 83,000 (expected 5,000; last 10,000)
    France’s Q1 Unemployment Rate 7.3% (expected 7.4%; last 7.4%)
    Italy’s April CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.0%); 6.0% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.5%)
    Spain’s March trade deficit EUR4.60 bln (last deficit of EUR4.30 bln)

    #36903
    Truman
    Participant

    STOXX Europe 600: +1.3%
    Germany’s DAX: +1.6%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.9%
    France’s CAC 40: +1.3%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.3%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.4%

    #36904
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s March Tertiary Industry Activity 1.3% m/m (expected 1.2%; last -1.8%)
    India’s April WPI Inflation 15.08% yr/yr (expected 14.48%; last 14.55%)
    Singapore’s April trade surplus SGD4.28 bln (last SGD4.191 bln). April non-oil exports -3.3% m/m (expected -1.3%; last -2.3%)

    #36905
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +3.3%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
    India’s Sensex: +2.5%
    South Korea’s Kospi: +0.9%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

    #36923

    Dow 32,654.59 431.17 1.34%
    S&P 500 4,088.85 80.84 2.02%
    Nasdaq 11,984.52 321.73 2.76%
    GlobalDow 3,827.00 76.51 2.04%
    Gold 1,811.50 -2.50 -0.14%
    Oil 112.25 -1.95 -1.71%

    #36930
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    The contrarian mindset today was rooted in a BofA Global Fund Manager Survey that showed cash levels at their highest position (6.1%) since 9/11 and the largest underweight position in equities since May 2020.

    #36931
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn’t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.

    “Restoring price stability is a nonnegotiable need. It is something we have to do,” Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival. “There could be some pain involved.”

    He said that it seemed the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation “is probably well above 3.6%.”

    The Fed chairman repeated his hope that the central bank can curtail high inflation without spurring a large rise in unemployment. However, Mr. Powell said, there is little from modern economic experience to suggest that outcome can be achieved. “If you look in the history book and find it—no, you can’t,” he said. “I think we are in a world of firsts.”

    “The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,” he said.

    “I would say there is no disagreement really. It is a challenging task, made more challenging the last couple months because of global events,” he said. “It is challenging because unemployment is very low already and because inflation is very high.”

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 80 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.