Traders Market Weekly: Bear Jitters as Risk Factors Deepen

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    Barron’s mentions:

    Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) is recommended, with the company expected to see higher profitability after going on an acquisition spree. Citizens is noted to trade at 1.3X tangible book value, which falls in line with the five-year average but lower than peers like Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) at 1.6X.

    The publication also breaks down the massive collapse in Terra USD (LUNA-USD) and the implications for other stablecoins like Tether (USDT-USD) and USDC Coin (USDC-USD). The question that could attract attention from regulators is what is the potential contagion effect of another stablecoin problem if the problem impacts an exchange like Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) then feeds to PayPal Holdings (PYPL) and then feeds to a major bank.


    Projected dividend increases:

    Companies forecast to boost their quarterly dividend payouts include

    Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) to $1.20 from $1.00, Haverty Furniture (HVT) to $0.28 from $0.25, Lennox International (NYSE:LII) to $1.03 from $0.92, Ashland Global (ASH) to $0.325 from $0.300, Northrop Grumman (NOC) to $1.70 from $1.57, Leggett & Platt(NYSE:LEG) to $0.44 from $0.42, and Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) to $0.82 from $0.80.


    IPO watch: No new IPOs are expected to start trading next week.

    Quiet periods expire on

    JE Cleantech (JCSE) and Aclarion (NASDAQ:ACON) to free up analysts to post ratings. Companies rolling off their IPO lockup periods include Sono Group (NASDAQ:SEV), UserTesting (USER), E-Home (EJH), Vivakor (VIVK), Finwise (FINW), Snow Lake Resources (NASDAQ:LITM), Sweetgreen (NYSE:SG), and Advanced Human Imaging (AHI).


    A large number of healthcare companies will be presenting drug data at the American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy Annual Meeting from May 16-19,

    REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX), AVROBIO (AVRO), Athenex (ATNX), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE), Mustang Bio (MBIO), and Fortress Biotech (NASDAQ:FBIO). Bank of America has highlighted Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) for having some key readouts and clinical updates at ASGCT.

    Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) will host its first in-person Science and Technology Day on May 17 for analysts and investors. The event will feature presentations with a focus on the company’s newest advances.

    Caterpillar (CAT) is holding its annual investor day event next week with higher demand for commodities seen adding to the company’s backlog of machine orders.

    New Relic (NEWR) will be hosting an Analyst Day on May 18 in conjunction with FutureStack 2022, the company’s annual customer and developer conference.

    Other investor events on the calendar that stand out are the presentations from OneSpan (OSPN), Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING), Cowen (NASDAQ:COWN), (NASDAQ:WIX), Wabash National Corporation (WNV), EPAM Systems (NYSE:EPAM), and Flywire Corporation (NASDAQ:FLYW). Analysts think guidance resets are more than likely with next week’s rush of investor events due to the shifting macroeconomic backdrop.


    Conference schedule:

    The conference schedule is headlined by the J.P. Morgan Homebuilding and Building Products Conference that runs from May 17-19

    includes presentations from PulteGroup (PHM), JELD-WEN Holding (JELD), DoorDash (DOOR), AZEK Company (AZEK), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), KB Home (KBH), and Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK).

    Other conferences of note include

    Needham Technology & Media Conference, the BofA 2022 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference, the RBC Global Healthcare Conference, the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference and the Wells Fargo Financial Services Investor Conference.


    Block Investor Day preview:

    Block (SQ) will hold its 2022 Investor Day event on May 18 with appearances scheduled for CEO Jack Dorsey and CFO Amrita Ahuja. Bank of America said to expect a fresh deep-dive into both the Seller and Cash App ecosystems, with details on total address markets, product roadmap, and cohort economics, as well as integration progress and synergies related to the recent Afterpay acquisition.

    Also look for an update on the company’s digital asset/crypto strategy with the recent sell-off in the background. “While we don’t necessarily anticipate formal and specific multi-year guidance to be issued, we think it is important for management to provide some form of a financial framework, to enable the Street to understand how SQ is thinking about trade-offs between growth and margins, as well as ROI on opex initiatives.” previewed BofA.


    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note.

    China reported weaker than expected economic figures for April, reflecting the impact of strict coronavirus restrictions.
    Shanghai’s vice mayor reportedly indicated that businesses in his city are reopening gradually.
    Japan’s PPI was up 10.0% yr/yr in April, representing the sharpest growth rate since late 1980.
    South Korea’s President Yoon acknowledged the impact of inflation and higher interest rates when speaking about the government’s planned extra budget of KRW59.4 trln.

    Japan’s Nikkei: +0.5%
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.3%
    China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3%
    India’s Sensex: +0.3%
    South Korea’s Kospi: -0.3%
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%


    China’s April Retail Sales -11.1% yr/yr (expected -6.1%; last -3.5%), April Industrial Production -2.9% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 5.0%), April Fixed Asset Investment 6.8% yr/yr (expected 7.0%; last 9.3%), and April Unemployment Rate 6.1% (last 5.8%)
    Japan’s April PPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 10.0% yr/yr (expected 9.4%; last 9.7%). April Machine Tool Orders 25.0% yr/yr (last 30.2%)
    South Korea’s April trade deficit $2.50 bln (last deficit of $2.66 bln). April Imports 18.6% yr/yr (last 18.6%) and Exports 12.9% (last 12.6%)


    Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) underperforms.

    Finland’s president officially applied for NATO accession while Sweden’s government is expected to do the same despite reports of opposition from Turkey.
    The EU Commission’s spring forecast lowered the 2022 growth outlook for the eurozone to 2.7% from 4.0% and raised the inflation forecast to 6.1% from 3.5%.
    European Central Bank policymaker De Cos said that the next ECB meeting is likely to produce a decision to end asset purchases in July, followed by a rate hike.

    STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
    Germany’s DAX: -0.6%
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
    France’s CAC 40: -0.2%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.3%
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.3%


    Eurozone’s March trade deficit EUR16.40 bln (last deficit of EUR8.80 bln)
    Germany’s April WPI 2.1% m/m (last 6.9%); 23.8% yr/yr (last 22.6%)


    Spirit Airlines (SAVE 19.60, +2.62): +15.4% after starting a hostile all-cash takeover bid for the company, according to CNBC. JetBlue urged Spirit shareholders to reject the Frontier transaction at their upcoming special meeting. (WIX 63.58, -7.61): -10.7% after missing EPS estimates and guiding Q2 and FY22 revenue below consensus.
    Warby Parker (WRBY 17.00, -0.44): -2.5% after missing EPS estimates and reaffirming its in-line FY22 revenue guidance.
    Nucor (NUE 123.01, -0.78): -0.6% after agreeing to acquire C.H.I. Overhead Doors from KKR (KKR 51.00, -0.57, -1.1%). The transaction is worth $3.0 billion.


    S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -15.0
    10 yr Note: 2.932%
    USD/JPY: 129.35 +0.13
    EUR/USD: 1.0422 +0.0009
    Europe: FTSE: +0.1% DAX: -0.3% CAC: -0.3%
    Asia: Hang Seng: +0.3% Shanghai: -0.3% Nikkei: +0.5%
    Gold (1804.50 -3.90) Silver (21.18 +0.18) Crude (110.27 -0.22)

    The global equity markets are easing back. S&P Futures are down about 15 points to trade around the 4005 area. An early attempt to continue Friday’s rally higher peaked out at 4042.00 before sellers took control. Spoos bottomed out at 3981.75 before migrating to the current level.


    Key factors driving the futures market:

    Cooling off from Friday
    Lingering growth concerns
    China reported weaker-than-expected retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset management data for April
    India reportedly banned wheat exports over the weekend, threatening to exacerbate food shortages and rising commodity prices
    EC lowered its 2022 growth outlook for the eurozone to 2.7% from 4.0%.
    Goldman Sachs (GS) Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein says companies should prepare for US recession, according to Bloomberg
    Shanghai will conduct phased reopening of businesses, according to The Wall Street Journal
    Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership. Turkey will not block those countries from entering alliance, according to NY Times


    Research calls of note:
    Upgrades: NFLX, NTES, CI
    Downgrades: FIGS, RNG, TWLO


    U.S. Treasuries are on track for a modestly higher start in the belly of the curve while the 2-yr note is expected to begin closer to its flat line. Treasury futures slipped out of the gate last evening but reclaimed their early losses shortly after the start of the Asian session. The market rallied to highs over the next hour but staying near the best levels of the night has been a challenge. Treasury futures marked fresh highs as attention turned to Europe, followed by another slide that erased a large portion of last night’s gains.

    Global equity markets started the week on a generally quiet note even though China reported weak economic figures for April, reflecting the impact of coronavirus restrictions. The EU Commission’s spring forecast lowered the 2022 growth outlook for the eurozone to 2.7% from 4.0% and raised the inflation forecast to 6.1% from 3.5%. Similarly, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for 2022 growth in the U.S. to 2.4% from 2.6% while the outlook for 2023 was reduced to 1.6% from 2.2%.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% at 104.43.

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